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Old 01-04-2013, 12:53 PM   #1 (permalink)
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The way, way, way too early bubble

After a comment about Charlotte's OOC SOS on another thread, I decided to look at what teams need to have an RPI in the 40s. Yes, this is early and a lot of conjecture but...
Here is the way it looks from RPIForecast. (I couldn't get the bottom 4 that high)
Records are Current/Future/Total

Team W L W L W L RPI SOS
sju 7 4 14 4 21 8 42 101
cc 12 2 11 5 23 7 42 120
vcu 11 3 10 7 21 10 43 48
lsu 9 3 12 5 21 8 44 116
slu 10 3 12 5 22 8 45 81
ur 10 5 11 5 21 10 46 70
tu 10 2 10 8 20 10 47 55
um 9 3 12 5 21 8 47 98
ud 9 4 13 4 22 8 47 92
xu 7 6 13 4 20 10 47 54
bu 10 2 10 8 20 10 49 66
sbu 7 5 13 4 20 9 49 103
gw 6 6 14 3 20 9 62 108
du 7 7 11 5 18 12 67 80
uri 4 8 13 4 17 12 76 62
fu 4 10 8 9 12 19 152 79

Last edited by urmite; 01-04-2013 at 02:44 PM.
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Old 01-04-2013, 02:22 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by urmite View Post
After a comment about Charlotte's OOC SOS on another thread, I decided to look at what teams need to have an RPI in the 40s. Yes, this is early and a lot of conjecture but...
Here is the way it looks from RPIForecast. (I couldn't get the bottom 4 that high)
Records are Current/Future/Total

Team W L W L W L RPI SOS
sju 7 4 14 4 21 8 42 101
cc 12 2 11 5 23 7 42 120
vcu 11 3 10 7 21 10 43 48
lsu 9 3 12 5 21 8 44 116
slu 10 3 12 5 22 8 45 81
ur 10 5 11 5 21 10 46 70
tu 10 2 10 8 20 10 47 55
um 9 3 12 5 21 8 47 98
ud 9 4 13 4 22 8 47 92
xu 6 6 14 4 20 10 47 54
bu 10 2 10 8 20 10 49 66
sbu 7 5 13 4 20 9 49 103
gw 6 6 14 3 20 9 62 108
du 7 7 11 5 18 12 67 80
uri 4 8 13 4 17 12 76 62
fu 4 10 8 9 12 19 152 79
Let me reorganize this. Assuming that you need to be in the top 50 rpi to get into the tourney, here are the number of wins each teams needs to at least be on the bubble. Edited to show non-con games that some teams still have left.

10 WINS:
VCU (17 Games left)
Butler (18 Games left)
Temple (18 Games left)

11 WINS:
Charlotte (16 Games left)
Richmond (16 Games left)

12 WINS:
LaSalle (17 Games left)
St. Louis (17 Games left)
UMass (17 Games left)

13 WINS:
Dayton (17 Games left)
St. Bona (17 Games left)
Xavier (16 Games left)

14 WINS:
St. Joes (18 Games left)

Can't get a top 50 RPI:
GW
Duquesne
URI
Fordham


It seems like there are 3 near locks: VCU, Butler and Temple. After that I expect one to three of Charlotte, Richmond, LaSalle, UMass, St.Louis to hit/surpass their receptive win marks and be solid bubble teams.

Here are the probabilities for each team having a top 50 RPI from RPI forecast:
VCU : 99.7%
Butler: 87.8%
Temple: 71.0%
St. Louis: 46.5%
St. Joes: 33.5%
LaSalle: 21.6%
Charlotte: 14.4%
Dayton: 11.2%
Richmond: 8.7%
Xavier: 0.9%
UMass: 0.9%
St. Bona: 0.2%
GW: 0.0%
Duquesne: 0.0%
Fordham: 0.0%
URI: 0.0%

Last edited by mm4cc; 01-04-2013 at 03:33 PM.
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Old 01-04-2013, 02:40 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

Thanks, that is better but some teams do have OOC games left that would be included in those win totals.

And anyone who was on the bubble from the A-10 would probably need at least a 1-1 record in Brooklyn to stay there.
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Old 01-04-2013, 02:40 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

Solid info, just one little note to MM's breakdown it's not just needed in conference play there are still OOC games that can be added to that as well, I know Temple still has 3 OOC games left in addition to the conference slate.
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Old 01-04-2013, 02:47 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

I thought Temple had 2 games - Kansas & Penn?

FYI Xavier now needs 13 - I didn't count the Butler win as either conf or Non-Conf.
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Old 01-04-2013, 02:49 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

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Originally Posted by urmite View Post
I thought Temple had 2 games - Kansas & Penn?

FYI Xavier now needs 13 - I didn't count the Butler win as either conf or Non-Conf.
Thanks for clearing some things up, I'll update my post.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:05 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

The Detroit game was postponed and will be played in February.
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Old 01-04-2013, 03:07 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

i didn't realize umass had the second toughest ncsos in the conference.
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Old 01-04-2013, 06:18 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

Forgive my ignorance... I get that that's "what each school needs to do to get a Top 40 RPI" But the question I have is "what is the maximium number of Top 50 RPI teams we could get, and what do we need for THAT?
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Old 01-04-2013, 08:44 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
Forgive my ignorance... I get that that's "what each school needs to do to get a Top 40 RPI" But the question I have is "what is the maximium number of Top 50 RPI teams we could get, and what do we need for THAT?
Using the win benchmarks given and assuming all the teams win the rest of their ooc games we can have 12 teams with a top 50 RPI if the bottom 4 lose all of their games. If this happens there probably wouldn't be 12 teams with a top 50 RPI since the given win benchmarks are the results of simulations which give more realistic outcomes.

Xavier: 13-3
St. Joes: 12-4
Dayton: 12-4
St. Bona: 12-4
Charlotte: 11-5
Richmond: 11-5
LaSalle: 11-5
St. Louis: 11-5
UMass: 11-5
VCU: 9-6
Buter: 8-8
Temple: 7-9
GW: 0-16
Duquesne: 0-16
URI: 0-16
Fordham: 0-16
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Old 01-05-2013, 03:55 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

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Originally Posted by mm4cc View Post
Using the win benchmarks given and assuming all the teams win the rest of their ooc games we can have 12 teams with a top 50 RPI if the bottom 4 lose all of their games. If this happens there probably wouldn't be 12 teams with a top 50 RPI since the given win benchmarks are the results of simulations which give more realistic outcomes.
Well, that would be impossible, because GW, DUQ, URI and FOR will play each other. Best we could hope for is:

SJU 13-3 | 22-7
XAV 13-3 | 21-9
MASS 12-4 | 22-7
BONA* 12-4 | 20-9
CHAR 10-6 | 22-7
LAS 10-6 | 22-9
RICH 10-6 | 21-10
SLU 10-6 | 21-9
TEM 9-7 | 22-9
VCU 9-7 | 21-10
BUT 9-7 | 20-10
DAY* 5-11 | 15-15
---
GW 3-13 | 9-19
DUQ 2-14 | 9-21
URI 1-15 | 6-23
FOR 0-16 | 5-26

*Had to have someone to finish 12th. Dayton plays Xavier twice and Bona plays Duquesne twice. If we get 11 bids, that's $16.5 million MINIMUM for the conference if we go 0-11. I think we can send UD something nice.
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Old 01-06-2013, 07:30 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

I think 11-5 will get UD in assuming one win in A10 play...that would be 22 wins. High seed but in.

I don't see us going 11-5 though.
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Old 01-06-2013, 08:04 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

Jeff Sagarin's predictor is not really working well with UMass. Sagarin places a significant weight on margin of victory and since UMass finds it very difficult to win by more than one point, Sagarin Predictor consistently undervalues UMass (check out UMass' predicted/current RPI versus his 95% confidence interval and you can see that the Predictor is not working for UMass).
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Old 01-06-2013, 06:10 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

I believe X has 17 games left. 16 conference games and an OOC tilt with Memphis.
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Old 01-06-2013, 10:08 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Re: The way, way, way too early bubble

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I believe X has 17 games left. 16 conference games and an OOC tilt with Memphis.
Please make Memphis and their fans cry.

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