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Old 01-23-2013, 06:46 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

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Yea, that's the same cast of characters who blew out Charlotte. I think there's a stat somewhere, when Miami has had everyone on their roster healthy and playing, they are undefeated on the year. They got Reggie Johnson back tonight, and even though he wasn't a 100% it was clear they are a better team with him.
Reggie Johnson is a monster. Congrats on the win over X. Those are few and far between for most A10 teams.
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Old 01-23-2013, 06:52 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

Man, who would have thought St. Joe's would start the year 1-3?
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Old 01-23-2013, 06:53 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

We did what we always do.
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Old 01-23-2013, 07:03 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

Jay Williams on ESPN just said he thinks the A-10 can get 6 or 7 teams in the NCAA tournament.
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Old 01-23-2013, 07:10 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

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Jay Williams on ESPN just said he thinks the A-10 can get 6 or 7 teams in the NCAA tournament.
If the A10 gets 5 teams in I will be pleasantly surprised. At this point I am expecting 4, and 6 or 7 teams seems absurd. Right now I am thinking VCU, Butler, LaSalle, and Temple.

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Old 01-23-2013, 07:36 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

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Jay Williams on ESPN just said he thinks the A-10 can get 6 or 7 teams in the NCAA tournament.
I just don't see how that can happen. We are going to beat each other up; it's already started.
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Old 01-23-2013, 07:51 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

The bubble is garbage, even worse than it has been the last few years. 6 or 7 is still possible. Not likely. Possible. Would need St Joe and Dayton to get very, very hot.

I would guess 5 right now. Butler and VCU are locks. A few others will play their way in. May get one in the First Four.
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Old 01-23-2013, 08:41 PM   #38 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

I think A-10 will be lucky with 4. Obviously Butler and VCU. Likely Temple for at-large. Maybe fourth from auto-bid. Most others have too many bad losses and not enough really good wins to overcome the tearing each other up that will happen in conference.

Can you imagine the A-10 without Butler and VCU this year? Scary bad all around.
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:10 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

“I expect us to be good,” a business-like Giannini said following the game. “If you see me in big wins, I’m not jumping around and doing dances…. This is a good team that needs to win these kind of games. This is the business that Xavier does. This is the business that Temple does. This is the business that good A-10 teams do.”
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:19 PM   #40 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

I wouldn't count Temple in for anything right now. They are playing like garbage lately. Obviously if it ended today we are probably in but they have to start going now or they are going to end up like St. Joes is right now.
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:28 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

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I think A-10 will be lucky with 4. Obviously Butler and VCU. Likely Temple for at-large. Maybe fourth from auto-bid. Most others have too many bad losses and not enough really good wins to overcome the tearing each other up that will happen in conference.

Can you imagine the A-10 without Butler and VCU this year? Scary bad all around.
"Tearing each other up" will lead to good wins, though. That's what happens in high quality leagues. Keep in mind, a 5th place finish this year is basically equal to a 3rd place finish last year. The Committee knows it.

We know Butler and VCU will be in. Temple looks good provided they don't completely fall apart. The next group ... SLU, Charlotte, Xavier, LaSalle, Dayton, SJU ... in descending order of probability at the moment, should be safe to provide at least one bid as well. One of those schools will run though the others with several wins. All of them more or less splitting games against the others is unlikely. Someone will make a run in those games.

And there's the 4 day tourney in Brooklyn that can produce the most random of random outcomes. Unlike past years, teams that finish 6th or 7th could realistically play their way in with a couple good wins in the A10 tourney.

Feel good about 4. Flip a coin for 5. 6 or 7 is possible if Plinko chips fall in the right slots.
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Old 01-23-2013, 09:32 PM   #42 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

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We know Butler and VCU will be in. Temple looks good provided they don't completely fall apart. The next group ... Charlotte, Xavier, SLU, LaSalle, Dayton, SJU ... should be safe to provide at least one bid as well.
A 'W' at home against Fordham and the Flyers are back in the NCAA picture?
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:04 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

Yeah, I don't see Dayton or Saint Joe's even getting in the conversation unless they start winning pretty much every game. Nothing I've seen from either team indicates such a run is possible.
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Old 01-23-2013, 10:25 PM   #44 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

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A 'W' at home against Fordham and the Flyers are back in the NCAA picture?
Who said they were entirely out of it before the Fordham game? Heck, UMass still has a path to an at-large.

Too many games left to completely rule out a team capable of 20+ wins and the key wins that would come with getting to that number.

It's very, very unlikely Dayton or SJU will earn a bid. Doesn't make it impossible. Far from it.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:23 AM   #45 (permalink)
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Re: 1/23 A-10 Games

I know we haven’t agreed on semantics much but come on. Very, very unlikely yet simultaneously far from impossible? Why even include Dayton in your discussion when it’s very, very unlikely to happen? Your analysis was truly the first I had seen that even mentioned UD- at all. It’s very, very unlikely- but not impossible- for Fordham to win a handful of A-10 games, make it to Brooklyn, run the table and get an auto-bid. Should I include Fordham? No because while not impossible it’s still very, very unlikely.

Xavier shouldn’t be in the discussion either. We have a really marquee win over Butler, very good win over Temple and decent wins @ Purdue and vs. LaSalle. But just horrible losses…Wofford, Vandy, Wake. Only way X gets an at-large is likely to win at least 2/3 between Memphis, VCU and Butler and then probably only drop 1 more conference game. Very unlikely. So I’m not going to include them.

The only A-10 teams outside of Butler and VCU that have a reasonable or likely shot for an at-large appears at this point to be Temple, Charlotte, La Salle and SLU.

I do think, though, a team like Dayton or St. Joe’s that has the talent to do it but has just not had good seasons could really turn it on in Brooklyn and get the auto-bid. Xavier has the talent, just not the depth to do that.
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