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Old 02-17-2013, 04:15 AM   #46 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Xavier will be finishing up a stretch of 8 games (including 6 road games) when they play at URI on Wednesday night. Xavier hasn't lost at URI since the days of Mobley, Wheeler, Reynolds-Dean and a misbehaving Ram mascot. Very winnable for X, but no gimmie.
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Old 02-17-2013, 07:47 AM   #47 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Code:
A-10 PRE-SEASON POLL 
PICKED  TEAM	     CURRENT	DIFF	
1	St. Joe's      10	-9	
2	St. Louis	2	 0	
3	VCU	        1	 2	
4	Temple	        6	-2	
5	UMass-Amherst	8	-3	
6	Butler	        4	 2	
7	LaSalle	        3	 4	
8	Dayton	       12	-4	
9	Xavier	        5	 4	
10	Richmond       11	-1	
11	SBU	       13	-2	
12	Charlotte	7	 5	
13	GW	        9	 4	
14	Fordham	       15	-1	
15	Rhode Island   14	 1	
16	Duquesne       16	 0
Interesting look at the preseason picks versus the current standings. No pick was further off the mark to date than that for St. Joe's. Charlotte, LaSalle, Xavier, and GW have thus far exceeded expectations.
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Old 02-17-2013, 09:26 AM   #48 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by twisted3829 View Post
Through Saturday's Games with remaining games added (tie breaking rules in post 1)

First Round Bye:
1. Virginia Commonwealth 9-2 (@SLU, @X, vs BU, vs Rich, @Temple)
2. Saint Louis 8-2 (vs VCU, @BU, vs SJU, @GW, @X, vs LSU)
3. La Salle 8-3* (@Temple, @URI, vs Duq, vs GW, @SLU)
4. Butler 8-3 (vs Duq, vs SLU, @VCU, @Umass, vs X)

Opening Round Games:
5. Xavier 7-4 (@URI, vs VCU, vs Umass, vs SLU, @BU)
6. Temple 6-5## (vs LSU, @Char, vs URI, @Ford, vs VCU)
7. Charlotte 6-5# (vs Temple, vs UD, @SBU, @Duq, vs SJU)
8. Massachusetts 6-5 (@SBU, vs UD, @X, vs BU, @URI)
9. George Washington 5-5 (vs Ford, @SJU, @Rich, vs SLU, @LSU, vs UD)
10. Saint Joseph's 5-6$ (vs GW, @SLU, vs Ford, vs URI, @Char)
11. Richmond 5-6 (@Ford, vs GW, @UD, @VCU, vs Duq)
12. Dayton 4-7% (@Umass, @Char, vs Rich, vs SBU, @GW)

Going Home Early:
13. St. Bonaventure 4-7 (vs Umass, @Duq, vs Char, @UD, vs Ford)
14. Rhode Island 3-8 (vs X, vs LSU, @Temple, @SJU, vs Umass)
15. Fordham 2-9 (@GW, vs Rich, @SJU, vs Temple, @SBU)
16. Duquesne 1-10 (@BU, vs SBU, @LSU, vs Char, @Rich)

* beat Butler head to head
## based on 2-0 against Charlotte and UMASS
# based on 1-1 against Temple and UMASS (UMASS is 0-2)
$ beat Richmond head to head
%based on 1-1 against Xavier (SBU 0-1)
VCU definitely looks like they have the toughest remaining schedule. Xavier, GW, and Butler have moderately difficult schedules too. SLU plays tough teams, but gets VCU and La Salle at home. If I had to pick the easiest remaining, I'd probably say SBU and La Salle. La Salle very well might sneak in and win the conference in the next 4 games, depending on which Temple shows up to play them.

Charlotte's schedule is pretty favorable too (that SBU road game looms), might make a run here at the end if they play well.
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Old 02-17-2013, 12:37 PM   #49 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

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Originally Posted by antboy View Post
VCU definitely looks like they have the toughest remaining schedule. Xavier, GW, and Butler have moderately difficult schedules too. SLU plays tough teams, but gets VCU and La Salle at home. If I had to pick the easiest remaining, I'd probably say SBU and La Salle. La Salle very well might sneak in and win the conference in the next 4 games, depending on which Temple shows up to play them.

Charlotte's schedule is pretty favorable too (that SBU road game looms), might make a run here at the end if they play well.
Seems like if you project reasonable outcomes for the remaining games, Butler and Umass migh end up tied for the 4 seed, and if that happens Butler drops to the 5th spot. The Butler @ Umass game will be very important. I'd say it seems like SLU 1st, VCU 2nd, LaSalle 3rd, and either Butler or Umass 4th.

But, as I am learning, this league is anything but reasonable!
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Old 02-19-2013, 07:09 PM   #50 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Whoa, this is back up and running. Nice! Thanks for picking up the slack, xu.
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Old 02-19-2013, 08:15 PM   #51 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

THROUGH 2/19

First Round Bye:
1. Saint Louis 9-2 (@BU, vs SJU, @GW, @X, vs LSU)
2. Virginia Commonwealth 9-3* (@X, vs BU, vs Rich, @Temple)
3. Butler 9-3 (vs SLU, @VCU, @Umass, vs X)
4. La Salle 8-3 (@Temple, @URI, vs Duq, vs GW, @SLU)

Opening Round Games:
5. Xavier 7-4 (@URI, vs VCU, vs Umass, vs SLU, @BU)
6. Temple 6-5## (vs LSU, @Char, vs URI, @Ford, vs VCU)
7. Charlotte 6-5# (vs Temple, vs UD, @SBU, @Duq, vs SJU)
8. Massachusetts 6-5 (@SBU, vs UD, @X, vs BU, @URI)
9. George Washington 5-5 (vs Ford, @SJU, @Rich, vs SLU, @LSU, vs UD)
10. Saint Joseph's 5-6$ (vs GW, @SLU, vs Ford, vs URI, @Char)
11. Richmond 5-6 (@Ford, vs GW, @UD, @VCU, vs Duq)
12. Dayton 4-7% (@Umass, @Char, vs Rich, vs SBU, @GW)

Going Home Early:
13. St. Bonaventure 4-7 (vs Umass, @Duq, vs Char, @UD, vs Ford)
14. Rhode Island 3-8 (vs X, vs LSU, @Temple, @SJU, vs Umass)
15. Fordham 2-9 (@GW, vs Rich, @SJU, vs Temple, @SBU)
16. Duquesne 1-11 (vs SBU, @LSU, vs Char, @Rich)

* based on 2-0 against team that are 6-5 (Butler is 1-1)
## based on 2-0 against Charlotte and UMASS
# based on 1-1 against Temple and UMASS (UMASS is 0-2)
$ beat Richmond head to head
%based on 1-1 against Xavier (SBU 0-1)
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:27 AM   #52 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

I think the below update is correct. Gonna be a wild finish.

Some thoughts on 13th place - the next set of games is just absolutely huge:

GW takes a jump up, but has a pretty brutal schedule down the stretch.

Richmond has to win at Fordham or becomes the prime candidate for 13th.

If UMass loses at home to UD, they could go into their final game at URI with only 6 wins.

SJU will be sitting pretty if they can grab a win at home vs GW, with home games vs. FU and URI remaining.

If Bona wins at Duquesne, they look to be 7 wins minimum, 8 if they can beat Charlotte at home, and would be secure.

Dayton will need to win a road game to get to 7 wins, but they host both Richmond and St. Bona, so have that in tiebreak scenarios. Winning at UMass would be best case for them b/c UMass may be in that 7-8 win mix.

URI's slim hopes begin at home vs. Lasalle.

Amazingly, no teams are yet eliminated from Brooklyn, as Duquesne still has to play both of the 5 win teams, as does Fordham. Both could conceivably get to 5 or 6 wins and jump Richmond and SBU.


THROUGH 2/20

First Round Bye:
‎1. Saint Louis 9-2 (@BU, vs SJU, @GW, @X, vs LSU)
‎2. Virginia Commonwealth 9-3* (@X, vs BU, vs Rich, @Temple)
‎3. Butler 9-3 (vs SLU, @VCU, @Umass, vs X)
‎4. La Salle 8-3 (@Temple, @URI, vs Duq, vs GW, @SLU)

Opening Round Games:
‎5. Xavier 8-4 ( vs VCU, vs Umass, vs SLU, @BU)
‎6. Temple 6-5## (vs LSU, @Char, vs URI, @Ford, vs VCU)
‎7. George Washington 6-5# ( @SJU, @Rich, vs SLU, @LSU, vs UD)
‎8. Charlotte 6-5### (vs Temple, vs UD, @SBU, @Duq, vs SJU)
‎9. Massachusetts 6-6 ( vs UD, @X, vs BU, @URI)
‎10. Saint Joseph's 5-6$ (vs GW, @SLU, vs Ford, vs URI, @Char)
‎11. Richmond 5-6 (@Ford, vs GW, @UD, @VCU, vs Duq)
‎12. St. Bonaventure 5-7 (@Duq, vs Char, @UD, vs Ford)

Going Home Early:
‎13. Dayton 4-7 (@Umass, @Char, vs Rich, vs SBU, @GW)
‎14. Rhode Island 3-9 ( vs LSU, @Temple, @SJU, vs Umass)
‎15. Fordham 2-10 ( vs Rich, @SJU, vs Temple, @SBU)
‎16. Duquesne 1-11 (vs SBU, @LSU, vs Char, @Rich)

‎* based on 1-0 against Charlotte (Butler is 0-1)
‎## based on 2-0 record vs. other 6-5 teams
# based on 1-1 record vs. other 6-5 teams
### based on 0-2 record vs. other 6-5 teams

‎$ beat Richmond head to head‎
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Last edited by SDW; 02-21-2013 at 09:16 AM.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:58 AM   #53 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Charlotte is actually 0-2 vs the other 6-5 teams (lost to both GW and Temple), though they get another shot at Temple next.

The Niners also haven't made it to Brooklyn yet, as I believe they could still drop to 13th if they lose the rest of their games. Seems unlikely and they have a more favorable schedule, but still possible.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:15 AM   #54 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Updated.

Almost any team below Xavier could conceivably fall to 13th in a perfect storm of A10 cannibalism.
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Old 02-21-2013, 06:10 PM   #55 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Through 2/24

First Round Bye:
1. Saint Louis 10-2 (vs SJU, @GW, @X, vs LSU)
2. Virginia Commonwealth 10-3 (vs BU, vs Rich, @Temple)
3. La Salle 9-4* (vs Duq, vs GW, @SLU)
4. Butler 9-4 (@VCU, @Umass, vs X)

Opening Round Games:
5. Xavier 8-5# (vs Umass, vs SLU, @BU)
6. Temple 8-5 (vs URI, @Ford, vs VCU)
7. Massachusetts 7-6 (@X, vs BU, @URI)
8. Saint Joseph's 6-6$$$ (@SLU, vs Ford, vs URI, @Char)
9. Richmond 6-6$$ (vs GW, @UD, @VCU, vs Duq)
10. George Washington 6-6$ (@Rich, vs SLU, @LSU, vs UD)
11. Charlotte 6-6 (vs UD, @SBU, @Duq, vs SJU)
12. St. Bonaventure 6-7 (vs Char, @UD, vs Ford)

Going Home Early:
13. Dayton 4-8 (@Char, vs Rich, vs SBU, @GW)
14. Rhode Island 3-10 (@Temple, @SJU, vs Umass)
15. Fordham 2-11 (@SJU, vs Temple, @SBU)
16. Duquesne 1-12 (@LSU, vs Char, @Rich)

*beat Butler head to head
#beat Temple head to head
$$$based on 2-0 against other 6-6 teams
$$based on 1-1 against other 6-6 teams; 1-0 against VCU
$based on 1-1 against other 6-6 teams; 0-1 against VCU (Charlotte is 0-2 against 6-6 teams)
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Last edited by twisted3829; 02-24-2013 at 03:24 PM.
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Old 02-24-2013, 03:24 PM   #56 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

the above post is through the games on 2/24. I believe the 6-6 teams are in correct order. St joe's is 2-0, Richmond and GW are 1-1, Charlotte is 0-2. With that St. Joe's gets 8th and Charlotte gets 11th. That leaves Richmond and GW for 9th and 10th and would go to the 2 team tie breaker. Since they have yet to play Richmond would get the 9th seed based on it's win over VCU. (GW hasn't played SLU and GW lost to VCU)
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Old 02-24-2013, 04:08 PM   #57 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by twisted3829 View Post
the above post is through the games on 2/24. I believe the 6-6 teams are in correct order. St joe's is 2-0, Richmond and GW are 1-1, Charlotte is 0-2. With that St. Joe's gets 8th and Charlotte gets 11th. That leaves Richmond and GW for 9th and 10th and would go to the 2 team tie breaker. Since they have yet to play Richmond would get the 9th seed based on it's win over VCU. (GW hasn't played SLU and GW lost to VCU)
The Martelli separation is starting to take form. SLU and VCU are clearly the class of the league right now, and SLU has head-to-head wins over both VCU and Butler now. La Salle could crash the party at SLU in the final week, although they probably won't get the chance for the 1 seed.

As it is, it's La Salle, Butler, Xavier and Temple in the best spot to get the remaining 2 1st-round byes. UMass could conceivably win all 3 remaining games, but could also lose all 3 remaining games as well.
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Old 02-25-2013, 05:32 AM   #58 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Twisted, thanks for updating these. I was gone all of last week, so wasn't able to update.
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Old 02-25-2013, 07:33 AM   #59 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Feel free to copy my post and update the first post ofthe thread
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Old 02-25-2013, 11:09 AM   #60 (permalink)
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re: If the season ended today (Updated through games of 3/2)

Duquesne and Fordham are now eliminated from playing in Brooklyn. I haven't broken down URI's possibilities for tiebreaks, but they're 3 back in the loss column with 3 games to play and the next 2 on the road, so chances are very slim.

13th place still up for grabs as UD still has to play 4 teams right ahead of them in the standings - @Charlotte, home for Richmond, home for SBU and @GW. At minimum, you figure they have to win 3 of those games.
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