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Old 02-12-2016, 01:16 PM   #136 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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IIRC, the units w/n the A10 are not split evenly, the team that earns them gets a higher share of the units that they earn. There was a conversation on this a few years back if you dig thru the archives.
I thought so also. But then I ran the math off this article, and it is shown as if all teams share equally. Maybe their input isn't good though.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/20...sketball-fund/
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Old 02-12-2016, 01:24 PM   #137 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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I thought so also. But then I ran the math off this article, and it is shown as if all teams share equally. Maybe their input isn't good though.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/20...sketball-fund/
Pretty sure the A10 split is 75% for the winner, 25% for the rest of the conference. I think Butler sited this as one of the main reasons they moved to the A10, they were tired of splitting their NCAA winning with the rest of the horizon. I'll see if I can find a source.

Edit - here is an article that describes the split: http://richmondbizsense.com/2014/03/...can-get-fuzzy/

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The Atlantic 10, the conference VCU plays in, has a different split. The league’s revenue sharing structure sets aside 25 percent of its basketball-related revenues to divide equally between all of its schools, regardless of performance. The remaining three-fourths are distributed to member teams based on their individual tournament performance, Cupps said.

“That’s pretty aggressive,” Cupps said of the 75-25 model, and the chance at a greater reward for individual tournament success was one reason VCU jumped from the Colonial Athletic Association to the Atlantic 10 two years ago.
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Old 02-12-2016, 01:37 PM   #138 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Thanks. That's certainly very much at odds with the Bloomberg article, which had GMU in its first year in the conference getting 1/14th of the NCAA money earned.

Wish that article had some verification from other sources in the A10 structure who didn't comment.
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Old 02-12-2016, 02:02 PM   #139 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Paul is doing a pretty good job of explaining why, at this time, the BE doesn't need to expand. If it's purely about money, since the NBE was formed, the A-10 is averaging $1.6 million per school and the NBE is averaging $2.5 million per school.

Also, I thought this was pretty good from Paul...
"For the 10-14 league teams now, 7 seems to be the ceiling. Val may be stupid (I'm pretty sure she's not) but the BE got a really sweet TV deal with MSG thrown in. So it's really the NCAA teams each year that would be the only thing to argue for expansion. The argument against seems to be centered around liking the true round robin.

In the 2014 NCAA's (BE first year) the Big12 with 10 teams got 7 in, the A10 with 14 teams got 6 teams, and the BE only 4. No conference with big numbers got 7 teams; only the Big12.

In the 2015 NCAA's (BE second year) the Big12 and Big10 got 7 in, the BE got 6 teams, and the A10 got 3.

That's not a situation that lends itself to expansion at this point."

So JP, you are advising that the Big East add 2 A-10 teams so they can get 6 teams in the tournament instead of 5, or 7 teams in the tournament instead of 6.

Why?

You seem concerned about the Seton Hall's of the world who currently are on the bubble playing all Top 100 teams. Why add TWO more teams that will compete with the Seton Hall's of the Big East, for maybe bumping up the bids from 5 to 6? In your scenario, the BE may get another bid, but it may be going to a non-BE school.

You seem to be the only one pushing this. FOX isn't gonna push it because why would they want to shell out another $8M/year for 2 more schools that won't move the needle on ratings.... and it's obvious the AD's and coaches are happy with the format.

And in terms of
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Old 02-12-2016, 02:42 PM   #140 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

On the SJU board we've been told, multiples of times, primarily by Nova fans that SHU would be "first or second" in the A10 this year. So if you believe that--which, given your BE fan status I'd think you might--then adding teams like Duquesne--firmly not in the top part of the A10 where SHU would be 'first or second'--would not "add TWO more teams that will compete with Seton Hall's of the Big East..."

Something doesn't jive here. Like Bill has stated elsewhere about the P5, the BE wants it every which way without any respect to the laws of physics. Or, in this case, reality.
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Old 02-12-2016, 03:08 PM   #141 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by sjhawk13 View Post
On the SJU board we've been told, multiples of times, primarily by Nova fans that SHU would be "first or second" in the A10 this year. So if you believe that--which, given your BE fan status I'd think you might--then adding teams like Duquesne--firmly not in the top part of the A10 where SHU would be 'first or second'--would not "add TWO more teams that will compete with Seton Hall's of the Big East..."

Something doesn't jive here. Like Bill has stated elsewhere about the P5, the BE wants it every which way without any respect to the laws of physics. Or, in this case, reality.
It sounds like some folks are trying to convince themselves of their own relevance in an increasingly football-powered landscape. Everyone wants to feel they have a leg up on someone, huh? It's just odd that you don't see multi-page threads about the CAA, Horizon, MAAC, or MVC on this board.
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Old 02-12-2016, 03:19 PM   #142 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

[QUOTE=hoopsfan2014;14181489] You seem concerned about the Seton Hall's of the world who currently are on the bubble playing all Top 100 teams. Why add TWO more teams that will compete with the Seton Hall's of the Big East, for maybe bumping up the bids from 5 to 6? In your scenario, the BE may get another bid, but it may be going to a non-BE school. /QUOTE]

I have have only read the last two threads of this conversation, so if an A10 fan mentioned this I apologize. Also, going forward the other conference discussed should be referred to as the New Big East in my opinion. Since Dayton is being discussed in multiple page threads on NBE message boards I going to use the Flyer's as the basis for my statement. The Marquettes and Georgetowns do not want the Daytons of the world in the league because there is a strong liklihood that they would lose more games. I would would wager that the current Archie Miller version of the Flyer's would fare well in the NBE. Fuck the NBE. Next Man up.
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Old 02-12-2016, 03:59 PM   #143 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

I'm amazed at the obsession with the NBE. They will almost certainly always make more money per school than the A10 if they stay at 10. They can't add any new teams for reasons of perception - too many people still think of Butler and Xavier as mid-major and adding any more A10 teams is only going to add to that perception. The NBE is doing everything they can to present themselves as a major conference and aren't going to add any teams that have any whiff of mid-major.
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Old 02-12-2016, 04:38 PM   #144 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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This conversation and JP is so far into the weeds he missed the big picture. There is no doubt the BE can eat their own. You also have the opportunity to play your way in much easier than the A10. Look at Xavier/Creighton as examples, they are getting better players due to the new league. Article in CBS this week Trevon Bluietts dad basically said there was no way he was going to Xavier in the A10. I would much rather lose more games and have more opportunities to get better talent and play your way in.

Take Butler and SH this year, both around .500 in league, if they beat a Xavier/Nova or a huge road win, that pushes them over easily. Drop a game to bottom half of a10, you're finished.

Last year Xavier was 9-9 in the BE regular season and got a 6 seed (finished 11-10 with tournament). 9-9 in the A10 doesnt get you into the NIT. 2 years ago they got into the play in game, you know what put them there? A loss to USC on a neutral court killed them.

The A10 is a solid league, and the formula UD uses is what Xavier used for years and had tremendous success. You can still get really good players and have tournament runs. However, Marq and Gtown are having bad years, yet the rosters are littered with 4 and 5 star players. Marq is inexperience and Gtown is poorly coached, but on any given night, talent can overcome that. In fact, had Marq not scheduled OOC so many 250 plus teams, they might be in better position. That doesn't happen to the mid or bottom tier A10. If you can get better players, who cares what your competition level is, you will win more games (you CAN get good players in the a10, look at UD/VCU).

Again rather be in a league where you can get better players top to bottom and more chances to play your way in but have more losses. Trying to beat the system but racking up more wins against lower level teams isn't a long term formula.
I could carve up every single thing you said with stats proving you wrong (in most cases, I already have). Or I can just point to bold statement and ask you this:

So it’s BETTER to be an under-achieving team in the NIT than an over-achieving team in the NCAA?
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:01 PM   #145 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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I could carve up every single thing you said with stats proving you wrong (in most cases, I already have). Or I can just point to bold statement and ask you this:

So it’s BETTER to be an under-achieving team in the NIT than an over-achieving team in the NCAA?
The key to his post was referencing the star ratings. It's amazing how so many people think those goddamn "stars" mean cock all once you get beyond the top 15 or so kids in each class. You either win or you don't.
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:34 PM   #146 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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So JP, you are advising that the Big East add 2 A-10 teams so they can get 6 teams in the tournament instead of 5, or 7 teams in the tournament instead of 6.

Why?

You seem concerned about the Seton Hall's of the world who currently are on the bubble playing all Top 100 teams. Why add TWO more teams that will compete with the Seton Hall's of the Big East, for maybe bumping up the bids from 5 to 6? In your scenario, the BE may get another bid, but it may be going to a non-BE school.

You seem to be the only one pushing this. FOX isn't gonna push it because why would they want to shell out another $8M/year for 2 more schools that won't move the needle on ratings.... and it's obvious the AD's and coaches are happy with the format.
We talked out the financials on the HLOH boards. I think it was Sheg who did the math on bids/units and shares. Basically, if adding two teams gets you SEVEN more units over a six-year span, you come out making more money. (And that’s not counting any TV implications of having two new fan bases watching 36 to 108 regular season games they weren’t watching before, or the Big East Tournament)

7 units in 6 years isn’t just BIDS. You get an extra unit for an extra win.
Assume any extra Big East bid is an 11 seed for a moment (stands to reason, right?) 11 seeds are 42-82 (.339) in the Round of 64.
So every THREE extra bids gives you FOUR extra units.

You’re FIGHTING for 5 or 6 now. You’ve probably got four. But you’re a handful of DePaul, Marquette, Creighton or St. John’s wins away from three.


We're not talking about 6 vs 5, or 7 vs 6. There's going to be inconsistencies through out the years. Stuff happens in conference play. But because conference play is a zero-sum game (90-90 for a 10-team Big East), and because the Big East teams 2-9 in the standings are so ridiculous similar, almost every instance of “Stuff happens” for the Big East can hurt their chances of sending six teams instead of helping it.

Whatshisface just foolishly said that a loss to a bottom A-10 team kills your chances instantly. That’s a lie. When we sent six teams, SLU, GW, SJU, UMass, VCU and UD lost seven games to the bottom of the league and all made the dance. UMass lost THREE and still made it.

They can withstand it because there’s so many winnable games, they were still 12-6 or better in conference. When you’re 8-10 in the Big East and 17-13 overall, add two bad losses and you’re .500 and not getting an at-large.

You’re tilting the odds in your favor with two more teams. Period.

Teams 5-9 of the Big East will replace games three games on their schedule they are going to go 1-2 in (1 vs the Top 4, 2 vs each other) with three games against teams worse than them. That makes them all two wins better.

And you lose NOTHING RPI/SOS/Top 50 wise.
Because now your 5th NCAA candidate isn’t 61 RPI Butler. They’re 47 RPI Butler because they are 21-10 instead of 19-12.
And now your 6th NCAA candidate isn’t 73 RPI Georgetown, they’re 52 RPI Georgetown because they’re 20-11 instead if 18-13
And you 7th and 8th NCAA candidate EXISTS instead of NIT bound Creighton and Marquette at 19-12 instead of 17-14.

Everyone lost a Top 50 game against one of the Top three teams to add games against Bona/Duquesne, but they added it back when Butler moved up into the Top 50.
Everyone lost a Top 100 game against one of the 5-6-7 teams to add games against Bona/Duquesne, but they added it back when Marquette moved up into the Top 50.


Now, can Bonaventure compete with, and beat Seton Hall, Butler, Georgetown, Marquette and Creighton. Long term, they’d probably grow into better programs. But you think they’re going to win many recruiting wars vs the other Big East teams? No. They’ll get the leftovers or steal recruits from the A-10 schools who are currently ahead of them in the standings.

Everyone’s going to have a bad stretch of rebuilding (St. John’s this year, DePaul), and Bonaventure has ALWAYS been frisky to pull some upsets. But if St. Bonaventure makes the top four of the A-10 this year, it will be their third time doing so. So it’s going to take them A LOT of work. You’ve got a long time before that happens. Like, fundraise millions and build new arena construction time.

And even then, when they raise themselves up and become competitive, you’re STILL looking at exactly what you have NOW: which is “Half + One” as NCAA contenders year, and everyone being remarkably similar and beating the crap out of each other as all strong Big East teams. Only you grew the club and stretched your brand into a region of 2.6 million in Western New York.



What’s funny in all this is that I’m TOTALLY content with my Bonnies in the A-10 and would be extremely apprehensive about making the switch. I’m not lobbying for Big East inclusion for St. Bonaventure because I desperately want the Bonnies to have a better gig. I’m only worried about us getting left behind in the future (again).

I’m arguing vehemently because I did my homework on Big East expansion for Dayton and “why the Big East would be better with Dayton.” And I realized that they’d instantly be that bigger club. But that doesn’t help them all that much. It helps DAYTON for sure And growing two lesser programs into Big East programs would help immensely.

It’s not about “I want THIS for St. Bonaventure,” It’s about “I discovered a brilliant plan. It’s the opposite of conventional wisdom, so everyone thinks I’m wrong. I like talking about this stuff, I like arguing. So I want to make them all see the light.”
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:40 PM   #147 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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Originally Posted by sjhawk13 View Post
On the SJU board we've been told, multiples of times, primarily by Nova fans that SHU would be "first or second" in the A10 this year. So if you believe that--which, given your BE fan status I'd think you might--then adding teams like Duquesne--firmly not in the top part of the A10 where SHU would be 'first or second'--would not "add TWO more teams that will compete with Seton Hall's of the Big East..."

Something doesn't jive here. Like Bill has stated elsewhere about the P5, the BE wants it every which way without any respect to the laws of physics. Or, in this case, reality.
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It sounds like some folks are trying to convince themselves of their own relevance in an increasingly football-powered landscape. Everyone wants to feel they have a leg up on someone, huh? It's just odd that you don't see multi-page threads about the CAA, Horizon, MAAC, or MVC on this board.
It's fun. half the guys tell me I'm wrong because Dayton or Bona or whomever suck too much; and the other half tell me I'm wrong because Dayton or Bona or whomever would be so good they'd F up my math.

Again, look at this season's RPIs and Projected RPIs.
We're either BETTER at basketball or BETTER at configuring our conference.

They can't see that -- much like the Big East bubble teams playing each other -- they can't both win.
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:41 PM   #148 (permalink)
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Old 02-12-2016, 06:28 PM   #149 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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I like J-lo. Nice touch Bill.
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Old 02-12-2016, 06:32 PM   #150 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

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I'm amazed at the obsession with the NBE. They will almost certainly always make more money per school than the A10 if they stay at 10. They can't add any new teams for reasons of perception - too many people still think of Butler and Xavier as mid-major and adding any more A10 teams is only going to add to that perception. The NBE is doing everything they can to present themselves as a major conference and aren't going to add any teams that have any whiff of mid-major.
You hit the nail on the head here. They can get away with Xavier, and Butler because they've been good for a long time. Butler made the Final twice. No current A 10 school has that type of rep.. The other factor is that right now, it may not be in the long term interest of the BE to have too many marginal teams getting bids. While many things have broken right for them, there is one very large issue they have, and it needs to to be solved fairly quickly, and that issue is performance in the NCAA Tournament. The P5 coaches would like to sell the idea that the nBE is simply a glorified mid major. Failure in March feeds this storyline. Five bids is likely to see the league with a 6-3 record after the first weekend. Nova, and X should advance to the Sweet 16. Of the three others, I can one first round loss, and two more in the second round. This is a good scenario for the league. A winning record would be guaranteed. Adding two more marginal teams is likely to make that record 6-5 after the first weekend. Should Nova, and X fall in the third round, the league would be under .500, and you would be hearing a lot about it. The league needs to have a successful March. Adding marginal teams to the mix isn't likely to help. Power leagues almost always reach the Elite Eight, and send teams to the Final Four on a regular basis. This will be the litmus test for the BE. If they don't start having teams play deep into March, watch their recruiting start to decline. The P5 knives are out, and ESPN is the enemy. They better start getting the job done soon.
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