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Old 01-04-2016, 10:45 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Reshuffling Conferences

Big 12:

They need 12 for title game it appears.
Talking TV Network.

If the second is true, why stop at 12. Go to 14 or 16. Add UConn (Never understood why Rutgers is so coveted for New York Market but UCONN isn't). NYC is more Jersey friendly? I get that Jersey itself is much bigger population wise than Connecticut but to me, UCONN brand is much bigger for neutrals. In truth, BC should get over it, and the ACC should add UCONN. Guess they are "full" until/unless ND shifts. Though, potential inroads to footprint in ACC "territory" might incite another reactionary poach like when they jumped to 14.

Big 12 should add UCONN. From there the others in light of a network deal seem obvious. South Florida, BYU and Cincy. I know Tulane is lightly thought of but their candidacy has some merit I think people overlook. Louisiana/New Orleans neutrals would embrace a second team in a relevant conference.

Big East:

If Big 12 expands Big East might see the value of upping membership for similar reasons.

Super conferences of 14 and 16 should start to gobble up basketball bids.
Fox at some point should want more markets.

Not sure just going to 12 is the best plan. I understand the diminishing returns of adding members and splitting up the pie. However,it's not going out on a limb to think that the next Big East Fox sports contract might invert things a little bit. If I were Fox, I'd incentivize the conference to go 14 or 16 (if they don't think it would dilute the product), which gives them a lot more programming options.

Richmond (possibly VCU if they can get over their public problem), St. Louis, Datyon, Wichita State, seem most obvious choices. Who else should be considered?

Personally, I've always thought everybody in these things are blinded by the short term. Either in the short term results (see Butler/Creighton for Big East or George Mason for us) or looking toward the future and not seeing the potential of a team.

I'd consider a lot of schools that match the big east current roster and have a big hometown. Johns Hopkins may have too many problems to make the jump but using them as an example, they aren't even D1 but they'd give the Baltimore market to the Big East and upgrading a hoops program to be the peer of many of the current Big East schools can't be that hard facilities wise. Belmont and Davidson are other schools that I'm surprised don't get more consideration. Obviously, I get Big East and Fox would want impact now or a splash, and many options don't give that (though who is left that does), but I'd think a lot of schools could in five years be more meaningful contributors to a basketball only league then the schools that always get talked about.

Anyway, I'm not trying to rehash old threads but more interested in discussing lesser teams that could be candidates for moving up (nobody really saw Butler or Creighton in Big east five years prior to them being there) and maybe more importantly who'd the A10 would look at to replenish the ranks with if we lost another chunk.
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:56 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

if the Big 12 adds anyone I see it being teams from the area not UConn even though UConn will want to go. I'd look at Houston or SMU or maybe even a BYU

I also don't think the Big East will expand, they are happy where they are and are having success right now.

The effect on us could be if Big 12 takes a AAC team would UMass go there for all sports which leaves us 1 spot short and URI kinda out on an island geographically
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:11 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

As for your Rutgers/UConn comments, I think Rutgers was more coveted due to proximity to NYC (Piscataway is 30-40 miles from Manhattan, vs. Storrs being around 150 miles away), Jersey being more populous, as you pointed out, and the fact that I believe Jersey typically has a higher number of strong high school football programs and recruits.
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:21 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Houston, SMU, Boise, and BYU are logical choices for the Big 12, but I'd imagine WVU would sort of Ndoye a reasonably close rival.
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Old 01-04-2016, 12:00 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

With Texas, Baylor & TTech, the conference is already texas centric, there may be concerns of adding Houston & SMU to the mix, that was an issue in the old SWAC days. BYU would be a great fit, Boise is OK, I think they need a travel partner for WVU. WVU is a tough place to get in/out of, adding someone else in the region (read Cincy) I think would be beneficial for all parties involved.
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Old 01-04-2016, 12:07 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

I would definitely disagree with the idea that George Mason was an add for short-term benefit. I mean, Paul Hewitt.

They're in it for the long game, and have unique advantages similar, or in addition, to what other members of this conference have.

If anything, Davidson is the one recent add for which it could possibly be argued is for the short-term benefit. Seeing their great academics and considerable endowment, I wouldn't make that argument myself.
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Old 01-04-2016, 12:44 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Dream scenario for the BIG 12 would be if they added only 2 teams: BYU and Memphis

4 teams: BYU, Memphis, Cincy and Houston
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:20 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Ok, send you put up the JP signal…

1. The Big XII’s expansion would be driven more by the need for 12 for a championship football game than by TV broadcast rights. The Big XII’s TV deals run through 2025, and each school retains the their own independent third-tier rights to make money off of. Yeah, you always want the most attractive TV games/markets possible in any scenario, but it’s not critical for the Big XII because it’s their football quality making people watch, not their markets.

While UConn is a massive candidate for a cable-based conference (like Rutgers/Big Ten; see 2) the Huskies actually AREN’T that essential to the Big XII…


2. Here’s a good opportunity to explain Rutgers: The Big Ten NETWORK makes their revenue from monthly cable network subscription fees. If Rutgers is in conference, the Rutgers market is likely to make BTN part of the BASIC cable deal, like MSG, YES or SNY is available on basic so the fans can watch their hometown team. You can charge cable companies more on basic than on an extended tier.

Getting BTN on in the New York, New Jersey area is huge. There’s roughly 5.5 million TV sets paying a monthly fee for the network. BTN charges $1 for BTN in market.

Adding Rutgers earns BTN $5.5 million… A MONTH.


3. One of the Big XII’s two main objectives with expansion is: travel partner for WVU for all the non-football sports that play two games a weekend. Which means Cincinnati is probably their top target.

4. The big question to ask in all this isn’t “who’s the best at football & basketball?” because the Big XII is plenty good enough in both. The big question is: What does each school BECOME with Big XII membership?

5. BYU stretches them three time zones wide. And no one is interested in the rigid scheduling BYU requires. BYU has a large cult following, which would be helpful for first tier, just like it would for UConn, Cincy, UCF, USF, or Memphis.

6. I think you’re on to something with USF, but they’d have to come tandem wit UCF. The Big XII just had WVU on an island all by their lonesome and that’s a big part of their targeting with expansion: Isolation is bad, you need a partner. USF & UCF bring big TV markets which help first-tier rights negotiations. The combined pop of TB/Orlando is the same as the state of Connecticut or the Mormon population.

But more importantly, Florida produces 14% of all FBS scholarship players. The Big XII adding that recruiting territory, being able to say “you can come play in a massively powerful football conference and play in your home state multiple times in your career” would be huge for the KU/KSU/ISU type schools.

Of course, Cincy, USF, UCF means they need a 14th. And that person would be a travel partner with Iowa State.


7. Ok, now we get to Texas schools. Why does everyone think Houston (or SMU/Rice) would be on the list? They have an even number of Texas schools now, always have. Texas and A&M wanted to leave the SWC without Houston, TCU, SMU and Rice back in the 90s. Hell, Texas and A&M wanted to leave BAYLOR AND TEXAS TECH in the 1990s.

History lesson time: Texas knew they couldn’t leave the SWC first, and told Arkansas “we can’t leave til you do.” The original plan by the Big Eight was to take Texas and Texas A&M for 10 teams. But when it was obvious the SWC was breaking up, all the politicians in the Texas government started wrangling.

Changing conferences requires the approval from the state board of regents, many of who are government appointees. Texas and A&M worked the room and realized they could get approval if they took Texas Tech. So the present the TRIO to the Big Eight as the only way to get Texas. And the Big Eight was in the process of exploring a 12th (New Mexico, BYU and TCU are the rumors) when Governor Ann Richards realized her alma mater was about to be screwed, and told the board that her next budget was going to SLASH state funding to the colleges that SWC if they didn’t take Baylor with them.

So long story short, Texas politics would be THE ONLY WAY that a Texas school is added to the Big XII.


However, the key phrase in there was “changing conferences requires President & Board of Regents approval.” Texas, Tech, Baylor and TCU are already in the Big XII. So the only thing the Texas government can do is the “State of Virginia to UVA regarding ACC expansion” ultimatum (that was: UVA is only allowed to vote for an ACC expansion that includes Virginia Tech.”

The Big XII requires a super majority for expansion (75%). There’s four Texas schools… but BAYLOR & TCU ARE PRIVATE SCHOOLS. They’re not at the mercy of orders from the State of Texas (Which is partly why TCU got the nod over Houston last time around. Remember that while TCU was a top 5 team in 2010, Houston was No. 23 in 2009 and No. 25 (and undefeated) in 2011 when they were discussing the invitation).


The Big XII can add whomever they want as long as everyone but Texas and Texas Tech agrees.


8. This obviously would have ramifications for the American, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt in FBS, and maybe the WCC, A-10, and others in basketball/all-sports.

9. But it does NOT have ramifications for the Big East. The Big East’s decision to expand would be independent of the Big XII landscape. The Big East isn’t trying to create a football championship game. The Big XII is.
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:22 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDbonnie1 View Post
Dream scenario for the BIG 12 would be if they added only 2 teams: BYU and Memphis

4 teams: BYU, Memphis, Cincy and Houston
I totally forgot to bring up Memphis... you're right, they ARE one of the dream four.

But the "dream four" for the Big XII would be:

Cincinnati (given, travel partner for WVU)
Memphis (travel partner for Iowa State, links the league together)
UCF (Big school, big market, just needs the B12 brand; recruiting territory)
USF (Big school, big market, just needs the B12 brand; recruiting territory)
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:28 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Now, the fallout.

The American would need to replenish if they lose Cincy/Memphis

The two most likely candidates in my opinion to replace them would be UMass and Charlotte.

If they lose UCF/USF, I think they’d go FAU/FIU (It’s like there’s a “Florida depth chart” in Conference realignment)

Two big markets. Great travel partners:

UConn/UMass
Temple/Navy
ECU/Charlotte
FL1/FL2
SMU/Tulsa
Houston/Tulane


Which means WE’D have an opening.


And I think we all know who is the undisputed No. 1 contender for A-10 membership.
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:30 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

I love JP.

Who's the undisputed No. 1 A10 membership contender? I'm guessing everyone is thinking the Shockers, right?
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:38 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Cue the Siena fans.
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:54 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Quote:
Originally Posted by sjhawk13 View Post
I love JP.

Who's the undisputed No. 1 A10 membership contender? I'm guessing everyone is thinking the Shockers, right?
No one? Stay at 13?
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:57 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

You'd probably be looking at Hofstra, Charleston, or Siena, as I can't see Wichita State making the move.
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Old 01-04-2016, 02:12 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Re: Reshuffling Conferences

Uh oh, here comes that Northeastern guy.

Wichita? Too far away from everybody, even Saint Louis.
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