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Old 11-27-2016, 04:56 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

Pinnum, I don't disagree with you at all. My question is.. we like to say team X or team Y from P5 suck despite their 10-2 record. And yeah.. they do. And someone beating them doesn't really mean much. But.. flip side.. if their 10-2 sucks why aren't our "sucky" teams going 10-2?
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Old 11-27-2016, 05:21 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

Some of it is ambitious scheduling backfiring. SLU has some tough teams still remaining (Wichita St. and K-State come to mind, which are scheduling leftovers from Jim Crews) that the Bills have very little chance of defeating. In the exempt event, the Billikens played BYU (good game to have for a good A10 team) and got blown out; then, they dropped a game to SEC Alabama in close fashion. Alabama isn't good, but people know who they are.

Talent wise, the Bills (just one example) are not on par with other A10 teams, and that does hurt the league as a whole. Ford is improving the talent level to A10 standards, but we have 5 talented players not wearing the jersey right now (French, Goodwin, Bess, Foreman, and Henriquez). I know we want our teams to be better...and when they're not, they should schedule appropriately.

Scheduling, though, has a cumulative effect. When SLU has more talent next year, I can't see a lot of schools scheduling a team with the last 3 year record of the Billikens, even though next year's team looks more promising. It would be a hard sell for a P5 school to play SLU anywhere coming off 11, 11, and whatever number of wins SLU has this year.

I feel bad for the effect the Bills will have on the A-10 schedule this year though. I guess irrelevant wasn't the right word...but "negative relevance" is more of what I was thinking.
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Old 11-27-2016, 05:32 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

I disagree Epic. I think SLU is a good schedule no matter what. Their name carries cache. If anything, P5 knowing you'll be better hurts you more than sucking last 3 seasons. They'd rather schedule the Bills in the basement than a possible loss. Which again goes to show the difficulty of scheduling as an A10 member.
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Old 11-27-2016, 05:50 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

These are all valid points. I know this is a rough subject for the Bonnies fans. I obviously don't make the decisions with the committee I just try to understand them so I know going forward.

In regards to selections last year, we all know they were awful. Tulsa in no shape or form should of been in that tournament. The committee's reason for selecting them was due to a road win at SMU and an OOC win over Wichita State. If I remember correctly, the AAC was extremely weak at the bottom and had a lower RPI than us. Whether you agree with it or not they viewed that win better than a win over a top A10 team and the Bonnies were without a quality OOC win.

You 100% want all your A10 teams to perform well during the OOC. Scheduling is more difficult for the A10 compared with the P5 conferences. It definitely helps when the bottom of the conference schedules well and picks up more wins than losses. As I said though, I think it is so much more important to have a few A10 teams be top 25ish RPI teams than the bottom.

My point was, the years we received 5 or 6 bids the teams at the top were ranked teams with RPI's well in the top 20-25. In addition, we had multiple teams that did enough in their OOC to remain in the picture come A10 play. The past couple years we haven't had that. I believe that's what held the conference back and why the selection committee hasn't valued wins over top A10 teams as high as others in the Big East, AAC etc.

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Old 11-27-2016, 06:06 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

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Originally Posted by BrownIndians85 View Post
Rutgers can get you to NJ, Bona can get you to your own gym.
I couldn't care less about Rutgers.
And Bona got the shaft of the century last year.

But Rutgers is playing 4 true road games OOC. St Bona is playing 2.
That's got to factor in somehow.
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Old 11-27-2016, 06:17 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

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Originally Posted by BrownIndians85 View Post
I disagree Epic. I think SLU is a good schedule no matter what. Their name carries cache. If anything, P5 knowing you'll be better hurts you more than sucking last 3 seasons. They'd rather schedule the Bills in the basement than a possible loss. Which again goes to show the difficulty of scheduling as an A10 member.
For the local P5s, you are probably right. I don't see Kim Anderson picking up the phone at Mizzou anytime soon (for a lot of reasons). Even with more talent on tap for next year, SLU is still going to profile as a "bad loss" for someone like a Missouri or Illinois...and with the recruiting in STL heating up, it's a loss they probably can't risk one way or another.
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Old 11-27-2016, 07:12 PM   #52 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
I couldn't care less about Rutgers.
And Bona got the shaft of the century last year.

But Rutgers is playing 4 true road games OOC. St Bona is playing 2.
That's got to factor in somehow.
We have recurring H and H series with Siena, Canisius and Buffalo. We played all 3 on the road last year, winning 2 and losing the other by 1 possession. Just so happens they are all home games this year. Combine that with getting 3 games in Texas last week, we didnt have to schedule any other games.
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Old 11-27-2016, 07:25 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

Never liked the 18 conference schedule games and will infer that it gives less flexibility in scheduling. This conference needs to have several teams in the top 25 to be treated well for at large bids. It's a given that the Bonnies have done well recently, but expect Dayton and VCU to be there as well as Rhody. Then good overall performances by a half dozen or more conference mates. So people lets hope for a good OOC stretch in the next month. Counting on UMass being in that group of half a dozen conference teams doing well in the OOC.
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Old 11-27-2016, 10:01 PM   #54 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

The proper way to frame it is that...

the bottom teams of your league don't NEED "marquee wins" so they should play cupcakes and go 10-2 or better.
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Old 11-28-2016, 05:53 AM   #55 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

For an easy way to follow conference performance against other conference, Colley lays the results out. Click on any conference to review their games.

http://colleyrankings.com/hcurconf.html
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Old 11-28-2016, 06:26 AM   #56 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

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Originally Posted by BrownIndians85 View Post
Pinnum, I don't disagree with you at all. My question is.. we like to say team X or team Y from P5 suck despite their 10-2 record. And yeah.. they do. And someone beating them doesn't really mean much. But.. flip side.. if their 10-2 sucks why aren't our "sucky" teams going 10-2?
That is a very fair question to ask.

While it is true that the bottom feeders in those conference are often on par with those of the A10, there is a difference in the lower mid tier. For instance, the 10th-12th place teams in the BigTen are likely better than the 10th-12th place teams in the A10.

So it is true that they do have some better teams.

Also, I think the teams in those conferences have a better understanding about where they are at in the conference and schedule accordingly. You don't see Rutgers scheduling like Saint Louis. But, there is probably the added benefit of Rutgers being able to parlay a weak schedule and an improved showing in the conference slate into some momentum that helps recruiting while A10 teams all seem to want to play big name schools.

If the teams at the bottom of the A10 scheduled like they were at the bottom of the A10, they too could get 8-10 wins a season OOC. But good luck convincing any of their fanbases that they don't want to 'go anywhere to play anyone to prove how great they are.'

Additionally, one of the big issues is that some of the better teams in the conference the last few years (Bonas, Davidson, St Joes) all struggle with their schedule. They don't get home games or big neutral court games which puts the conference at a disadvantage.

We sometimes end up with some of the better teams in the conference having a deflated OOC because of this. Even VCU, last year, had a deflated OOC because of all their losses resulting from their tough schedule.

For Duquesne, I understand playing Pitt in the city game but playing Penn State and especially Kentucky are not helpful for them or the A10. Even playing Tenn-Martin was likely a bit much.

Saint Louis is playing six top-150 teams and four top-100 teams. That doesn't help the A10. It is even debatable if it helps them.

Part of the problem is that in the A10, a lot of the programs think about themselves and in the other conferences they think less about themselves and more about how they fit in the context of the conference. Of course, it is easier to do that when you're getting a big check from he conference (for NCAA units and TV money) which you didn't actually earn.

I would like to see the A10 teams working together more with scheduling but that it probably a lot to ask.

I fear that the American and West Coast are making a lot of gains on the A10.
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Old 11-28-2016, 06:51 AM   #57 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

And thank you, Bona84.
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Old 11-28-2016, 07:17 AM   #58 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

My pleasure, res.
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Old 11-28-2016, 06:11 PM   #59 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnum View Post
That is a very fair question to ask.
And the short answer is: They're buying one-way games. We're being bought.



2015-16 OOC WIN PERCENTAGES, A10 vs Big Ten:
A10 HOME vs BCS: .667 (10-5)
B10 HOME vs BCS: .562 (9-7)

A10 HOME vs Non-BCS: .847 (72-13)
B10 HOME vs Non-BCS: .878 (86-12)

A10 ROAD vs BCS: .294 (5-12)
B10 ROAD vs BCS: .412 (7-10)

A10 ROAD vs Non-BCS: .500 (10-10)
B10 ROAD vs Non-BCS: .500 (3-3)

A10 NEUT vs BCS: .333 (8-16)
B10 NEUT vs BCS: .444 (12-15)

A10 NEUT vs Non-BCS: .833 (5-1)
B10 NEUT vs Non-BCS: .846 (11-2)

A10 went 109-57 last season OOC, the Big Ten was 128-49. If you apply our percentages to their number of games (aka, we had the money to schedule like they do)

Wed be 122-55 (.689, up from .656)
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Old 11-29-2016, 05:34 PM   #60 (permalink)
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Re: Conference underperforming.

The answer is the bottom of the league winning is important for RPI and SOS calculation purposes. For other subjective non-math purposes, it may not matter at all.

It matters that the bottom of the league does well because Level 2/Level 3 RPI calculations are based on winning %, not wins and losses.

In terms of raw values, a lousy team on your schedule winning actually helps your Level 2/3 more than a good team on your schedule continuing to win.

For example: if your 9-1 opponent wins and goes to 10-1, their winning % improves from .900 to .909 or a .009 improvement. However if your 1-9 opponent wins and improves to 2-9, they improved from .100 to .182 or a .082 improvement. Very substantial.

Outside of the math vacuum, any team on your schedule winning or continuing to win is a good thing. The RPI uses winning % in the computation and not aggregate W/L on your Level 2/3 because opponents play different numbers of games. In essence, the RPI does not distinguish between a 1-2 and 10-20 record. At the same time an opponent that is 10-0 and continues to win will not improve your SOS raw rating because their winning % is already 1.00. But continuing to win ensures they dont hurt your SOS -- and that is still very significant because you are jockeying for RPI rank among 350+ teams. Other teams RPI values are rising and falling every day. If you fall slower, by definition, you will actually move up in RPI rank (even though your RPI rating has fallen).

Level 3 becomes almost meaningless by season end b/c its thousands of games and so interconnected. Youll find as you get deeper into the season, teams that move up the RPI rank are moving up -- not because their RPI rating is improving, but because their RPI rating is falling slower. This is where your good opponents continuing to win helps your case.

Hope this helps. More to it than this, but these are the broad strokes.
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