Conference underperforming. - Page 7 - Basketball Forum : Professional and College Basketball Forums
BasketballForum.com is the premier basketball Forum on the internet. Registered Users do not see the above ads.
User Tag List

Like Tree89Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-20-2016, 09:55 AM   #91 (permalink)
Star
 
UMass87's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,487
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 764 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

VCU will almost certainly finish with a worse RPI this year than SBU had last year. That's some context. It's not good enough for a team that should be one of the best in the conference. VCU doesn't have a particularly strong OOC schedule and needed to beat the P5 schools it plays. VCU has not done that. That is the conference underperforming. Nobody who knows anything about college basketball is going to be wowed by anything any A10 team has done OOC.
JonBoy likes this.
UMass87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 12-20-2016, 10:38 AM   #92 (permalink)
Piker
 
AlienAiden's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: RVA
Posts: 6,255
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2701 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Is LSU considered a P5? Oh, never mind.
What was Bona's RPI at the end of last season? 47? I bet VCU has a better RPI than that because of the SOS of the OOC.

OK, I looked it up. They had a RPI of 29. You are probably right about the RPI but we shall see. VCU won't lose in the quarters of the A10 tournament though.
__________________
"Left hand, right hand, it doesnt matter. I'm amphibious!" ~Charles Shackleford
Rest in Peace

Last edited by AlienAiden; 12-20-2016 at 10:47 AM. Reason: Rickets
AlienAiden is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 11:46 AM   #93 (permalink)
Star
 

Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 2,616
Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 885 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bona84 View Post
Why?
Quote:
Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
I'd be interested to know also. If I remember KPI did have the Bonas in the field as they should have been.

I wouldn’t hate a metric just because it didn’t happen to like my team; I’d hate a metric if it’s methodology was flawed.

Two problems with KPI:

#1 - It’s a list of numbers next to teams WITHOUT a methodology attached. RPI, for example, does what it is supposed to do (that’s “Results vs SOS” only, not “who’s good”) in a way that’s transparent: “This is the formula, when you apply it you get this.”

Without knowing what the KPI formula is, and being able to determine if it’s a credible formula, it’s a meaningless pile of numbers that equates to that guy’s “trust me, this tells us who’s the best.”

And I don’t trust him, because Michigan State’s AD has been using it in the NCAA Selection Committee room, and we’ve had horrible brackets in that time.


#2 - In talking about its creation, the set out to make an index of the best teams in college basketball. He’s tweaked the formula a hundred times until it created an index of “who’s the best?” That’s not science. That’s not data.

That’s rigging mathematical equations to match what your concept of the best teams are.

In the hundreds of times he’s tweaked the formula, he’s done so for reasons similar to looking at last season’s data and saying “Monmouth and Little Rock (last year) can’t be THAT high, something’s wrong.”


I’ve been screwing around with excel trying to make a formula of my own, and you simply can’t do it because it’s impossible to blend the two universes of college basketball (the BCS universe and the non-BCS universe) into one index.

Any measure that’s “fair” to non-BCS teams overrates them, and overrates anyone who just crushes weak teams. In order to put last year’s Little Rock team in the range they probably should be, you’d have a smoke & mirrors South Carolina team in the top five.

Any measure that’s “fair” to the BCS strength of schedule makes anyone outside the BCS appear JV.
Gormin71 and BrownIndians85 like this.
jpschmack is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Old 12-20-2016, 11:56 AM   #94 (permalink)
Star
 
UMass87's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,487
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 764 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

AlienAiden - I was just using VCU as an example. As the team picked third, VCU had lower performance expectations than Dayton and URI. So, as VCU beat a weak LSU, so did Dayton beat a weak Alabama (and will probably beat Vandy as well). URI had one chance against a P5 team and it was, unfortunately, Duke. Without statement wins by its top 3 teams the A10 is, I think by definition, underperforming. I suppose it's not underperforming if one thinks the A10 is a middle-of-the-pack mid-major conference.
AlienAiden likes this.
UMass87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 12:46 PM   #95 (permalink)
Piker
 
AlienAiden's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: RVA
Posts: 6,255
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2701 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UMass87 View Post
AlienAiden - I was just using VCU as an example. As the team picked third, VCU had lower performance expectations than Dayton and URI. So, as VCU beat a weak LSU, so did Dayton beat a weak Alabama (and will probably beat Vandy as well). URI had one chance against a P5 team and it was, unfortunately, Duke. Without statement wins by its top 3 teams the A10 is, I think by definition, underperforming. I suppose it's not underperforming if one thinks the A10 is a middle-of-the-pack mid-major conference.
Well, I was being a smart ass so it is fine. Ha! I am not happy that VCU lost to Ga Tech and Illinois. I will probably get over it soon though.
__________________
"Left hand, right hand, it doesnt matter. I'm amphibious!" ~Charles Shackleford
Rest in Peace
AlienAiden is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 02:25 PM   #96 (permalink)
Piker
 
AlienAiden's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: RVA
Posts: 6,255
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2701 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UMass87 View Post
AlienAiden - I was just using VCU as an example. As the team picked third, VCU had lower performance expectations than Dayton and URI. So, as VCU beat a weak LSU, so did Dayton beat a weak Alabama (and will probably beat Vandy as well). URI had one chance against a P5 team and it was, unfortunately, Duke. Without statement wins by its top 3 teams the A10 is, I think by definition, underperforming. I suppose it's not underperforming if one thinks the A10 is a middle-of-the-pack mid-major conference.
Is it really as bad as a middle of the pack mid-major conference? I am not so sure of that. Rhody did beat a ranked Cincinnati team. VCU just beat the best team in the CUSA who was almost ranked and is still getting votes in the coaches poll. I would have to study it but most conferences out of the P5 have not really been tearing it up this year. Hopefully the NCAA tournament is not just P5 and Big East with auto bids and a few at large bids but it is certainly looking that way right now. Let's say the A10 only gets 2 bids. From what I see other conferences are not above those 2 bids which means the ACC, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, Big Ten and the Big East are getting the lion's share of the bids. Of the other conferences the projections are showing the A10, West Coast and AAC with 2 each. Everyone else is an auto-bid.
__________________
"Left hand, right hand, it doesnt matter. I'm amphibious!" ~Charles Shackleford
Rest in Peace
AlienAiden is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 03:03 PM   #97 (permalink)
All-Star
 

Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Westchester County, NY
Posts: 5,638
Mentioned: 30 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1080 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienAiden View Post
Is it really as bad as a middle of the pack mid-major conference? I am not so sure of that. Rhody did beat a ranked Cincinnati team. VCU just beat the best team in the CUSA who was almost ranked and is still getting votes in the coaches poll. I would have to study it but most conferences out of the P5 have not really been tearing it up this year. Hopefully the NCAA tournament is not just P5 and Big East with auto bids and a few at large bids but it is certainly looking that way right now. Let's say the A10 only gets 2 bids. From what I see other conferences are not above those 2 bids which means the ACC, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, Big Ten and the Big East are getting the lion's share of the bids. Of the other conferences the projections are showing the A10, West Coast and AAC with 2 each. Everyone else is an auto-bid.
That can't be right, AA. There are 4 team threads with little blue NCAA circles.
AlienAiden likes this.
__________________
Bona84
Bona84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 03:14 PM   #98 (permalink)
Piker
 
AlienAiden's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: RVA
Posts: 6,255
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2701 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bona84 View Post
That can't be right, AA. There are 4 team threads with little blue NCAA circles.
Maybe Big E knows something we don't.
__________________
"Left hand, right hand, it doesnt matter. I'm amphibious!" ~Charles Shackleford
Rest in Peace
AlienAiden is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 03:52 PM   #99 (permalink)
Star
 

Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 2,616
Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 885 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

I really think we're "performing" at our "baseline" for lack of a better word.

We are well below where we WANT to be. But this is where we should be in a season where we are "disappointed we aren't better."

We’re 7th in Conference RPI, neck and neck with the American, who’s probably going to surpass us in conference play.

Here’s our breakdown:
4-24 vs the Top 4 conferences we have no realistic chance of competing with (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12)

9-11 vs the Next 4 conferences, that we need to be competing with, and surpassing on a consistent basis:
5. SEC: 3-6
6. P12: 1-0
8. AAC: 5-5

12-8 vs mid-majors (9 MWC, 10 MVC, 11 WCC, 12 CAA)

And 62-18 vs one-bid leagues


Once again, it’s the exact same problem: We are 2-10 on the road against Top 100 BCS teams (and 3-11 road vs all BCS)

In the last five seasons:
9-56 (.138) on the road against Top 100 BCS teams, and 14-73 (.161) on the road against all BCS teams.

Here’s an idea: Don’t walk into an ambush just for a little bit of money! We are .645 in all other games (including neutral vs BCS, home against BCS, road/home/neutral vs everyone else). We could be 37 games better over the last five years if we simply refused to play guarantee road BCS games.

We should take an NCAA unit per season and make it the “No Guarantee fund” and give each school $50,000 if they DON’T take a guarantee road game at a BCS school.
res and Gormin71 like this.
jpschmack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 05:20 PM   #100 (permalink)
Star
 
UMass87's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,487
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 764 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

The metrics are important but I'm not convinced they are as important, at least from a perception perspective, as are signature wins. Middle Tennessee may be high in the RPI right now but they are not going to be anything better than strong mid-major in terms of perception. That win doesn't mean a lot. Right now Duquesne has the highest profile win of an A10 team. That's not going to cut it.
UMass87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 05:28 PM   #101 (permalink)
Player
 

Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 602
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 392 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
We’re 7th in Conference RPI, neck and neck with the American, who’s probably going to surpass us in conference play.
Say what? How would the American surpass the A10 after OOC is over?
nilesgold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 05:36 PM   #102 (permalink)
Piker
 
AlienAiden's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: RVA
Posts: 6,255
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2701 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UMass87 View Post
The metrics are important but I'm not convinced they are as important, at least from a perception perspective, as are signature wins. Middle Tennessee may be high in the RPI right now but they are not going to be anything better than strong mid-major in terms of perception. That win doesn't mean a lot. Right now Duquesne has the highest profile win of an A10 team. That's not going to cut it.
The Middle Tennessee win is important to VCU and will help down the road. I think Rhody beating Cincinnati is the best win in the conference.
__________________
"Left hand, right hand, it doesnt matter. I'm amphibious!" ~Charles Shackleford
Rest in Peace
AlienAiden is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 05:36 PM   #103 (permalink)
Star
 
Bill Russell's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 4,993
Mentioned: 13 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1568 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nilesgold View Post
Say what? How would the American surpass the A10 after OOC is over?
The only way I could think of is if we play 18 league games and the AAC plays 16. Looking up the length of the AAC league slate isn't high on my list of priorities tonight, though.
Bill Russell is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 07:36 PM   #104 (permalink)
Star
 

Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 2,616
Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 885 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nilesgold View Post
Say what? How would the American surpass the A10 after OOC is over?
We are ahead of them now in Conference RPI because we have a better SOS, but they have a better win pct:

A10: .5359 RPI | .5878 WIN PCT (87-61)
AAC: .5279 RPI | .6379 WIN PCT (74-42)


But in conference play, we’re both going to go .500 against ourselves (and yes, they play 18 games, too).
The A10 has 14 teams, so we’ll go 126-126.
The AAC has 11 teams, so they’ll go 99-99.

The difference in OOC win percentage makes their conference games worth more on their SOS.

Add OOC (entering today) to those conference records, and the average AAC game would be worth .551.
And ours would be .533.

Per team there's 12 or 13 OOC games, and there's 18 conference games. So the SOS you get from conference games is FAR MORE IMPORTANT than the SOS you get OOC.

They’ll gain on us as the season goes on and I think they're close enough to pass us. We'll see.


Does this make sense? I can do an unrealistically simple version of that...

Pretend the only 30 teams are the MVC, WCC and Big East.
And the conference standings are identical in each league (all three 1st = 18-0, 2nd = 16-2, 3rd = 14-4, etc...10th = 0-18).

If there's no OOC games played at all, there'd be 10 different three-way ties in RPI:

1. Wichita State / Gonzaga / Nova all 18-0, exact same RPI.
4. Northern Iowa / St. Mary's / Xavier all 16-2, exact same RPI.
7. Evansville / BYU / Creighton all 14-4, exact same RPI.
etc.

Now add ONE OOC game total to the entire season: Pacific (WCC) beats St. John's (BE).
WCC = 91-90
MVC = 90-90
BE = 90-91

Now, there's no ties in RPI. It's WCC - MVC - BE, all the way down:
1. Gonzaga
2. Wichita St
3. Nova
4. St. Mary's
5. Northern Iowa
6. Xavier
7. BYU
8. Evansville
9. Creighton

Because the WCC played a SOS of .5027, the MVC played an SOS of .5000, and the Big East played an SOS of .4973.


This is why I constantly harp on "We need to WIN OOC GAMES PERIOD. And if we happen to beat someone good, even better. But winning > losing; and the bottom half of the league shouldn't even bother to try and play anyone good, just all aim for 12-0 OOC."
jpschmack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2016, 07:48 PM   #105 (permalink)
Veteran
 
Bona03's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,146
Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 509 Post(s)
Re: Conference underperforming.

I wish people on our Bona board would understand this.
Bona03 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:37 AM.



User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging v3.1.0 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © 2002 — 2013 BasketballBoards.net.
 

Search Engine Friendly URLs by vBSEO 3.6.1