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'08-'09 Mini Big 12 Preview

Posted 09-22-2008 at 08:28 PM by coolpohle
Top Players in Conference
Curtis Jerrells, Baylor
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
A.J. Abrams, Texas
Damion James, Texas
Josh Carter, Texas A&M

Player of the Year
A.J. Abrams, Texas

Player to Look Out For
LaceDarius Dunn, Baylor

Projected Big 12 Finish
1. Texas 14-2
2. Baylor 11-5
3. Nebraska 11-5
4. Texas A&M 10-6
5. Oklahoma 10-6
6. Oklahoma St. 9-7
7. Texas Tech 7-9
8. Missouri 7-9
9. Kansas St. 6-10
10. Iowa St. 4-12
11. Kansas 4-12
12. Colorado 3-13

Texas
Texas is clearly the class of the Big 12 this season. They did lose D.J. Augustin to the NBA, but they didn't lose much else. A.J. Abrams is my Conference Player of the Year, and Damion James is one of the best players in the conference as well. The Longhorns never play much defense, so that's the main area of concern. Still, this is a returning Elite Eight team that's going to start at least four upperclassmen. They'll have plenty of experience.

Baylor
Maybe a little higher than most would have them, but most would agree that they're going to be pretty tough this year as they return more of their team than anyone in the conference. Curtis Jerrells is the leader of this senior heavy team that also features underrated sophomore LaceDarius Dunn. Dunn was a five star recruit out of high school that shot 42% from deep last year, so look out for him. The Bears do need to get better on defense.

Nebraska
Here's a team that I have significantly higher than pretty much anyone. What's not to like? They won 20 games last year and had wins over Arizona St., Oregon, and Charlotte out of conference. They did beat Kansas St. and @ Texas A&M, too. They were 0-3 in OT games so they could've had an even better record. They lost Aleks Maric, but not much else, and I love defensive minded teams and this is one. Don't be surprised if they make the dance.

Texas A&M
The Aggies are a team that I think will be pretty decent. Another underrated team last year, they narrowly shocked final four bound UCLA in the 2nd round last March. That wasn't a fluke because they were that talented. Senior Josh Carter returns and is one of the best players in the conference. Sloan and Davis are key returnees, and although they do lose more than most in the conference, an always defensive minded team like this one can win double digit games in the Big 12.

Oklahoma
The Sooners are getting a lot of hype and I've seen them in some people's top 10 nationally. That's crazy if you ask me because the losses of Godbold and Longar are huge since they weren't a deep team last year. They do add a big time freshman in Willie Warren, so they're still good enough to win double digit conference games. But if you watched this team last year, any team that could get Griffin in foul trouble or make him ineffective would beat them easily.

Oklahoma St.
Another disappointing year for Oklahoma St. last season, although they did turn it around to win 5 of their final 7 regular season games. When you factor that in with that fact that they really only lost Marcus Dove, you're left with a team that could surprise with a winning record in the conference. They were one of only three teams to beat Kansas last year, too.

Texas Tech
Texas Tech missed the postseason last year but they might be good enough to change that around this season. They were a pretty good deep shooting team mainly thanks to Voskuil and Roberson and both those guys return. No question that losing senior Martin Zeno hurts, though. They did have wins over Gonzaga, Texas, and Kansas St. last season so let's see if they can build off that.

Missouri
Maybe a bit underrated last season, they may be a little bit again this season, although they probably won't go .500 in conference. Keon Lawrence transferred to Seton Hall, and that hurts although he did have a sophomore slump last season. They do return a good trio of seniors in Lyons, Caroll, and Matt Lawrence, but they also have to overcome the loss of a lot of their bench.

Kansas St.
Last year was a season that Kansas St. hasn't seen in awhile, and probably won't see for some time. Led by Beasley and Walker, but of those guys went pro, and that alone turns this 10-6 team from a year ago to probably around the opposite at 6-10. Much of their bench remains intact, but this is certainly a rebuilding year.

Iowa St.
It seems like a long time ago when Iowa St. was a dangerous team. Now they're just a bottom feeder in the Big 12. They lost their final six games last season and there's not much reason to be optimistic. They have put out some really good defensive teams on weak teams overall, but they have nobody to go to on offense. Last year that shot a pitiful 182-573 (32%) as a team from 3 point range.

Kansas
I laugh when I see people put this team in the top 3 or 4 in the conference. Just because they were national champions last year doesn't make them a top 25 team this year. The only players they return from last year are non-starters Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich. Everyone else is going to be guys you've never heard of. Florida was decent last year, but remember, they returned more than Kansas does, plus they had a better incoming class.

Colorado
Hard to imagine Colorado not finishing last in the Big 12 as they had little talent last year, and now they're without their two best players from a year ago in Hall and Roby. And to make things worse, that team only went 8 deep. They lost to teams like Wyoming and New Orleans last season, and barely even survived Colorado St. Yikes.
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Old
TM's Avatar
Holy cow, Nebraska at #3? The thing about Oklahoma - you keep saying all you have to do is shut down Griffin. The thing is, with Warren there, they have a more solid inside-outside combo. No more doubling and tripling Griffin... Hahahaha... Kansas at #11? I don't think they'll be that bad, but I've been saying what you said concerning how they relate to last year's Florida team.
permalink
Posted 09-24-2008 at 07:31 AM by TM TM is offline
Old
Geez, I understand the desire to offer up a different point of view, but some of this just doesn't make sense.

All Nebraska loses is Aleks Maric? As in, all they lose is the nation's 2nd most productive player from a year ago, and the only power conference starting caliber player on the roster? Heck, even if he was back they wouldn't finish 3rd.

And Kansas isn't finishing 11th in the conference. They have twice the talent of the conference bottom feeders, a potential all-american at PG, and enough at the other spots to make the tournament without much worry. Are they a lock? Maybe not. Worse than Iowa St? Texas Tech? Have you looked at Texas Tech's roster lately?
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Posted 09-24-2008 at 07:07 PM by Jonathan Watters Jonathan Watters is offline
Old
coolpohle's Avatar
I think one of the things that people have to realize first and foremost is that this conference is really down from a year ago. There's only a couple teams that return a significant chunk of their team, and everyone is fairly close after Texas.

Nebraska is definitely one of my surprise teams, and I'm okay for taking heat with having them near the top. Sure, Maric is a big loss, but they return the next five highest minute getters from a year ago. We'll see how it turns out.

The low Oklahoma ranking will depend on how much they will be affected by the losses of Godbold and Longar. I think it's going to hurt them a lot more than people think.

As far as Kansas goes, I ask you this. If you didn't know that they were the defending national champions and just looked at their roster, you would say that team looks pretty bad. I don't care what they did last season, they won't be good this year. Collins isn't going to be able to carry that team. If they returned maybe a couple more players or had a big time freshman coming in, I could see them going around .500 in conference, but they don't.

Texas Tech certainly won't be that good of a team, but I feel like once you get past Oklahoma St. in my rankings, there's not a whole lot separating everyone.
permalink
Posted 09-24-2008 at 07:35 PM by coolpohle coolpohle is offline
Old
TM's Avatar
Apparently not too many people read the article written just after Kansas' trip to Canada - the one about Bill Self being ticked at Collins for being fat, lazy, and out of shape. Dude better get things turned around quick. At this point, he's no potential All-American.
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Posted 09-25-2008 at 09:19 AM by TM TM is offline
Old
Coaches say lots of things in the preseason - it doesn't change the fact that there is 0 chance Kansas finishes 11th in the Big XII.
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Posted 09-25-2008 at 05:54 PM by Jonathan Watters Jonathan Watters is offline
Old
kansasalumn's Avatar
I am no way commenting your projection to have Kansas that bad. That is bunch of BS. I think KU will finish no lower than 5.

1-Texas
2-Oklahoma
3-Texas A&M
4-Baylor
5-Kansas
6-Nebraska
7-Kansas State
8-Missouri
9-Okahoma State
10-Texas Tech
11-Iowa State
12-Colorado
permalink
Posted 09-25-2008 at 07:10 PM by kansasalumn kansasalumn is offline
Old
kansasalumn's Avatar
Self said about Collins every year, and the first two years of play he has been a solid player. . Yes KU lost a lot of players and yes KU will lose a lot of games, but being 11th is too absurd
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Posted 09-25-2008 at 07:13 PM by kansasalumn kansasalumn is offline
Old
TM's Avatar
^hahaha... but you just commented on it.
permalink
Posted 09-25-2008 at 07:13 PM by TM TM is offline
Old
You know Sherron Collins is good right? "Non-starter" isn't really a fair description.
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Posted 09-25-2008 at 10:56 PM by Nimreitz Nimreitz is offline
Old
TM's Avatar
Jayhawks searching for a leader as Collins shows up out of shape

Hope for KU's sake he gets his act together before the season starts. It would appear to me that it's a bit more than just being a little out of shape. Don't you want your team's leader being the example for the rest of the team?
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Posted 09-26-2008 at 05:37 AM by TM TM is offline
Old
coolpohle's Avatar
We'll have to re-visit this at the end of the year.
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Posted 09-29-2008 at 09:00 AM by coolpohle coolpohle is offline
Old
kansasalumn's Avatar
Quote:
Three seasons ago, Self had an even younger team that started out 3-4. It went on to win 15 of its last 17 games and capture the Big 12 tournament title. A lack of offense may hold the Jayhawks back from getting that hot, but we fully expect them to be a factor in the race for the league title. They'll finish among the top four in the Big 12 and win at least one NCAA tournament game.
Rivals Preview
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Posted 10-01-2008 at 10:43 AM by kansasalumn kansasalumn is offline
Old
TM's Avatar
^ranked 16?!?!?! hahahahaha... no way. cole aldrich will have to have a luke harangody type season and the freshmen will have to be the best in the country.
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Posted 10-01-2008 at 11:42 AM by TM TM is offline
Old
kansasalumn's Avatar
yes #16 might be a little high, but from the quote I posted shows that KU could be a top half team of the Big 12. People forget that KU has some very good young talent including the top 2 JUCO transfers who will get prime time playing
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Posted 10-01-2008 at 05:58 PM by kansasalumn kansasalumn is offline
Old
kansasalumn's Avatar
I think POY will be Blake Griffin over Abrams.
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Posted 10-01-2008 at 05:59 PM by kansasalumn kansasalumn is offline
Old
Your lack of basketball knowledge is clear based on these predictions, but the most ridiculous thing is the fact that you you have 5 North teams finishing below the last South team. With the unbalanced schedule, the mathematical possibility of 6 South teams finishing in the top 7 is pretty much nil.

There is a reason that you are the only person out there picking KU 11th and it isn't because you are smarter than everybody else. If you followed recruiting, you would've heard of KU's recruits. You would also know that KU had a recruiting class ranked anywhere from 2nd to 10th nationally depending on the site. Far and away the best recruiting class in the conference.
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Posted 10-02-2008 at 06:45 AM by DrunkoMcGee DrunkoMcGee is offline
Old
"Everyone else is going to be guys you've never heard of."

You don't mention any players on KSU or ISU's teams. Have you heard of any of them? Is this this singular reason you ranked Kansas this low, or is it because you've never heard of their players?
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Posted 10-02-2008 at 08:37 AM by gorton gorton is offline
Old
coolpohle's Avatar
"Your lack of basketball knowledge is clear based on these predictions, but the most ridiculous thing is the fact that you you have 5 North teams finishing below the last South team."

I think my track record speaks for itself. Drunko, please join the Locks of the Day Contest this season and ask all those guys how little I know about college basketball. 63% ATS and I know nothing? lol...as far as the unbalanced schedule...honestly I just rank the teams as how good I think they're going to be...I don't go that in depth.

Scout.com doesn't have them in their top 10, and they don't have a single 5-star recruit coming in. I mean, Kentucky had a better class coming in last year for example, and look at how that turned out.

And the reason nobody else has them as low is I do is because they don't have the balls to do it. I don't mind going out on a limb, and the Jayhawks are going to be worse than people think. Maybe we can re-visit this when Kent St. goes into Kansas and wins.
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Posted 10-02-2008 at 08:50 AM by coolpohle coolpohle is offline
Old
"they don't have a single 5-star recruit coming in. I mean, Kentucky had a better class coming in last year for example, and look at how that turned out."

umm yeah exactly, 5-star recruits don't guarantee you success. Same as not having five star recruits doesn't mean you will be terrible. You are focusing WAY to much on recruiting rankings, yet only seem to be applying that criteria to KU. Nebraska 3? I like how you write off maric like losing him is no biggie, when he scored 1/4 of their points. They didn't even have another player averaging double figures last year. When is the last time they had a 5-star recruit, ever? so KU has to have 5 star recruits to win in the conference, but nebraska doesn't? Yet they somehow are going to finish 3rd in the league because their team of their "experienced" 2 and 3 star players?

The fact is, KU is a young team, sure, but they also have the hardest non-con schedule in the nation (ESPN's words, not mine) to get them ready for conference play. Don't focus so much on recruiting rankings, because (and look at your own example of kentucky ) recruiting rankings not a very good indicator of success on the court, ESPECIALLY team success rather than individual success.
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Posted 10-02-2008 at 10:23 AM by RK28 RK28 is offline
Old
Rivals has the KU recruiting class #2 and RSCI has it #10. There are still 2 McDonalds AAs on the team and every recruit brought in is top 100.

The Kentucky example makes me laugh because Kentucky made the NCAAs last year. KU could have a season like Kentucky had last year which wouldn't be nearly as bad as what you are projecting. Coaches like Bill Self who have won 80% of their games over an extended period don't suddenly go 4-12 in a down Big 12.

If you are going to do a "preview" and project records, you should probably take the very simple step of considering the North and South and the unbalanced schedule.

Just going by the fact that you think Kentucky was horrible last year, that you obviously don't follow recruiting, and that your preview didn't account for the actual schedules the teams will play this year, I am pretty comfortable in sticking with my assessment that you don't have a clue as to what you are talking about.
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Posted 10-02-2008 at 10:31 AM by DrunkoMcGee DrunkoMcGee is offline
 

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