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**Premier** · 06-27-2005, 07:08 AM

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<hr align="left" size="1"> June 26, 2005

It's Not Where N.B.A. Teams Draft, but Whom They Draft

<nyt_headline type=" " version="1.0"> </nyt_headline> <nyt_byline type=" " version="1.0"> </nyt_byline>
By DAVID LEONHARDT

<nyt_text> </nyt_text> The 29 teams trying to catch up to the Spurs may do well to keep this in mind during Tuesday's draft: San Antonio has not drafted a single high school player or college freshman in the past decade.

They have chosen college veterans, including Tim Duncan, and international players like Tony Parker. But every time they have had a chance to fantasize about the sweet potential of a high school player, to see flaws as nothing more than trifles waiting to be fixed by an N.B.A. coach, the Spurs have said no thanks.

On Tuesday, N.B.A. executives will get one last chance to indulge their worst draft-day instincts. The new collective bargaining agreement, which takes effect next season, bars any player who is less than a year out of high school from being drafted. The change will help level the playing field between the league's savviest drafters and its incurable optimists. In the last seven drafts, teams have taken 26 high school players and 21 college freshmen, and most of them have been chosen far too early.

This pattern is the clearest lesson to emerge from a new analysis of the draft, done by three members of basketball's small crew of "Moneyball"-like analysts. Wayne Winston and Jeff Sagarin, statisticians who work as consultants to the Dallas Mavericks, and Nate Medland, a student of Winston's at Indiana University, looked at every draft since 1998, comparing the spot where a player was taken with his N.B.A. performance.

The average high school draft choice was picked seven spots above what his play ended up warranting. College freshmen were almost as overvalued. Players with two years of college experience, like international players, were drafted roughly where they should have been, on average. The typical college junior or senior was undervalued by two spots.

So there is an elegant relationship between big-time experience and performance. Many of the teams that have done the best drafting relative to their position, like the SuperSonics, the Spurs, the Heat, the Nets and the Grizzlies, have avoided the question marks that hang on teenagers (though the Knicks have taken mostly upperclassmen and have still been the league's worst drafters since 1998). "It is very difficult with a high school kid or a kid with one year of college," Ed Stefanski, the Nets' general manager, said last week. "The body of work that has been done is not large."

**Premier** · 06-27-2005, 07:08 AM

SamIam · 06-27-2005, 08:02 AM

Of course Ainge came inn 2003 so that list is irrelevant to today. Besides, if you give away your best picks who cares how good a drafter you are!

FanOfAll8472 · 06-27-2005, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SamIam

Of course Ainge came inn 2003 so that list is irrelevant to today. Besides, if you give away your best picks who cares how good a drafter you are!

Notably Joe Johnson

.

**ehmunro** · 06-27-2005, 09:45 AM

What the FAQ? Boston had exactly two picks work out in that time frame (1998-2002), one of them for someone else. How could they possibly rate 10th with selections like Brown, Forte, and Moiso on the resume? They didn't have firsts in 1999 & 2002. So they had a bust rate of 60%, inclusive of one of the deepest drafts this decade. As far as I can tell, that makes them disastrously bad.

I'll also have to note that the part about high school draftees is pretty bogus, the NBA has been picking them regularly for a decade, and the study authors went out of their way to exclude the first three years (Garnett, Bryant, McGrady, & O'Neal), while counting the last two (thereby guaranteeing the inclusion of short term under-performers). This produces a skewed data set. If they wanted to exclude four of the best, then they should have been honest enough to exclude those that only had a year or two in the league. Michael McCann still produced the definitive study on high school draftees, and on the aggregate they're just as productive as college draftees.

Flava_D · 06-27-2005, 09:48 AM

gotta love that NY is dead last on the list though....

Dirty Dirk41 · 06-27-2005, 10:31 AM

nice to see the celts in the top 10...knicks are 29th...*laugh*

Truth34 · 06-27-2005, 08:55 PM

Check out the "re-do" drafts. They have Paul Pierce going at #3 in 1998, and look what they have for last year's re-do.

Dwight Howard #1.....Big Al #2.

**#1AntoineWalkerFan** · 06-27-2005, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truth34

Check out the "re-do" drafts. They have Paul Pierce going at #3 in 1998, and look what they have for last year's re-do.

Dwight Howard #1.....Big Al #2.

where do you see this??

Truth34 · 06-27-2005, 11:10 PM

In that "Insider" section, they have "re-do" drafts showing where teams would take those guys in that class if they knew what they knew today about the players.

In 1998, they have Paul Pierce going third, behind VC and Dirk.

In 2004, they have Big Al going second, ahead of Robert Swift, ahead of Ben Gordon, and yes, ahead of Emeka Okafor.

Premature to say this?

**ehmunro** · 06-28-2005, 12:08 AM

The funny part is that Pierce was a consensus top 5 pick going into the draft. The Clippers & Nuggets caught everyone off guard by grabbing mediocre big men (Kandiman & Raef). I watched agog that night as team after team passed on him. I shouted myself horse (for joy) when Dallas nabbed Traylor, Sacramento Jason Williams & Philly Hughes. Of course, I was dead wrong about Nowitzki (I nearly blew out my vocal chords when Milwaukee drafted him), in retrospect I'd have preferred him to P-2. After that Boston got one of the top 3 that year. Though I would put the top 3 as Dirk, Pierce, and Antawn Jamison. To my way of thinking Vinsanity's a distant 4th with Bibby 5th.

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