Hollinger' system looks at six main points and has four red flags. Some things are missed in these numbers though. For example, they don't include Oden playing in third gear for most the season to protect his wrist or the winning attitudes of the Florida players (including Brewer).
The numbers in the past look good, though there are a few fishy moments. For example, Vincent Yarborough is ahead of Caron Butler and Tayshaun Prince in the 02 draft, and Mike Sweetney is ahead of Chris Bosh in the 03 draft. It also puts Delonte West over Devin Harris and over 100 ahead of Iguodala.
Overall, Kevin Durant is the best college prospect since before 2002, as Hollinger only goes to that draft. Carmelo Anthony is number two in this period, though he is about 80 points behind Durant. Oden is second (obviously), but ranks behind Tyrus Thomas, Marvin Williams, Sean May, Sweetney, Bosh, Drew Gooden and Boozer in the drafts Hollinger gives numbers for. Again, that can be explained by him playing with one arm for much of the season to protect his wrist.
A couple huge surprises from these numbers are Nick Fazekas and Josh McRoberts in the back half of the top ten. The numbers do give big points to rebounding and guys who can score and pass efficiently. Jared Dudley lands at tenth in Hollinger's system.
The biggest thing that I can see is that Thaddeus Young is the top of the SF crop according to Hollinger and he ranks significantly ahead of Jeff Green (99 point difference), Brewer (141 points), and Al Thornton (156 points). Thornton loses points for being two years older than his competition, while Brewer is low in rebounding, and pure point ratio.
Hollinger doesn't rank Euros in this system, but here is what he has for the top fifteen college guys and a few others thrown in for show:
1 - Durant
2 - Oden
3 - Mike Conley, Jr.
4 - Thaddeus Young
5 - Brandan Wright
6 - Al Horford
7 - Fazekas
8 - McRoberts
9 - Rodney Stuckey
10 - Dudley
11 - Joakim Noah
12 - Glenn Davis
13 - Shawn Williams
14 - Jeff Green
15 - Kyle Visser
OTHER NOTABLES:
19 - Julian Wright
20 - Daequan Cook
24 - Brewer
25 - Thornton
27 - Acie Law IV
30 - Spencer Hawes
Hollinger's cut off point for probable significant NBA players is 500. Herbert Hill is the last 500 pointer and ranks 16th. Both Arron Affalo and Taurean Green were below 400.
While Hollinger is consistently close to accuracy, there are some sub-500 guys that panned out. Haslem, Butler, and Prince from 02, David West, Marquis Daniels, and Chris Kaman in 03, Chris Duhon in 04, David Lee in 05. Sub-400 players include Tony Allen and Steve Blake, while Darius Songaila was sub-300.
Hollinger's numbers say skip Brewer, but they also say that this is the deepest draft measured with 16 players over 500. No other draft has 13.
Hollinger: The numbers say Brewer will bust
). He just shuts down the other guy. Of course, I haven't seen every game Brewer's ever played so I could be wrong. But I still think he's a good defender and a better offensive player than people think. The Celts should take him in a cocaine heartbeat.
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