xubrew

-These projections are done as if today was Selection Sunday. This is not an attempt to predict the future, but rather a checkpoint as to where teams would be seeded if the tournament began today.

-It is early in the season and you'll see some strange things in these projections. A lot of teams who played weak schedules out of conference have not had a chance to get their resumes up to par, so some of them are likely to be seeded lower than you may expect. That does not mean I believe they will wind up there, it is simply where I believe they would be if the tournament started today.

-This is NOT what I think should happen, but rather what I think the committee would do. If you disagree with the committee, then chances are you'll disagree with these projections.

-Just to clarify, I have the CHICAGO REGION playing the ALBERQUERQUE REGION in the Final Four, and the SYRACUSE REGION playing the AUSTIN REGION.

-All conference champions are noted with an asterisk (*). Since it is so early in conference play, I did not necessarily always take the team in first place. However, all teams projected as champions are no more than one game out of first place.





CHICAGO, IL REGION:


INDIANAPOLIS, IN:
1. *Illinois
16. *UMKC

8. Texas Tech
9. *Western Michigan


TUSCON, AZ:
5. Georgia Tech
12. Nevada

4. *Louisville
13. Notre Dame


BOISE, ID:
6. Cincinnati
11. Villanova

3. *Gonzaga
14. *Murray State


CLEVELAND, OH:
7. Mississippi State
10. Michigan

2. Arizona
15. *Lamar






ALBERQUERQUE, NM REGION:


CHARLOTTE, NC:
1. Duke
16. *Mercer

8. *Utah
9. *UTEP


TUSCON, AZ:
5. Michigan State
12. Texas A&M

4. UCLA
13. Charlotte


NASHVILLE, TN:
6. Oregon
11. Minnesota

3. *Kentucky
14. *Bucknell


OKLAHOMA CITY, OK:
7. *Pacific
10. Pittsburgh

2. Oklahoma State
15. *Fairfield






SYRACUSE, NY REGION:


CHARLOTTE, NC:
1. *Wake Forest
16. *Mississippi Valley State vs *Monmouth (Opening Round Game)

8. Georgetown
9. UAB


INDIANAPOLIS, IN:
5. Oklahoma
12. Arizona State

4. Iowa
13. *Old Dominion


BOISE, ID:
6. *Southern Illinois
11. Miami, FL

3. *Washington
14. *Wisconsin Milwaukee


WORCESTER, MA:
7. *George Washington
10. *Vermont

2. *Boston College
15. *Portland State






AUSTIN, TX REGION:


OKLAHOMA CITY, OK:
1. *Kansas
16. *Coppin State

8. Maryland
9. *Arkansas Little Rock


CLEVELAND, OH:
5. Alabama
12. DePaul

4. Wisconsin
13. *Princeton


WORCESTER, MA:
6. Texas
11. Rice

3. Syracuse
14. *Chattanooga


NASHVILLE, TN:
7. Marquette
10. Florida

2. North Carolina
15. *Winthrop







NOTES:

-It was not a good weekend for several potential bubble teams. Northern Iowa, Bradley and Wichita State both lost to sub 100 RPI teams. Kent State was blown out by Western Michigan earlier in the week, and lost to Ohio U on Saturday. Hawaii lost to a sub 100 RPI as well. After a big win on the road against Nevada, UTEP fell at Fresno State. They aren't exactly a bubble team, but it definitely hurt their seed as well.


-ON THE BOARD, BUT NOT IN THE BRACKET:

Kent State
Bradley
Massachusetts
TCU
Wichita State
Hawaii
Northern Iowa
Houston
Virginia
Clemson

-Kent State has an RPI in the 20s, but that is the only good thing on their resume. They have lost four of their last six games, are just 8-6 on the year, and have two bad losses. Not only that, they have played terrible in their last two games. I seriously doubt the committee would put them in despite their high RPI. It is sort of a moot point though, because if they continue to lose, their RPI will catch up to them.

-Temple is 6-7 and is not eligible for an at large bid at the moment. They are in absolutely no danger though because their SOS and RPI are very high. They are clearly a superior team in the A-10 conference and should have no trouble finishing with a winning record. I expect them to be seeded in the 7-10 range at the end of the year.

-Louisville made a huge jump. Their win against Cincinnati bumbed their RPI up 35 spots and their SOS up by over 25 spots. It also gave them their first high quality win, and the fact that it came on the road made it even better.

-I think it's also worth noting that I believe Charlotte is much better than their RPI. It is currently 90, but everything else on their resume is pretty good. What's more important than that is that they are actually a VERY good team, and the bulk of their schedule is ahead of them. If they beat Cincinnati this week, they'll be in great shape. Like Temple, I expect them to end up in the 7-10 range in the end.

-It will be difficult for Pacific and Vermont to maintain their high seeds because they play in weak conferences. It is likely that their RPI and SOS will be dragged way down and other than the bracket buster, they won't have any more chances at quality wins.

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JuniorNoboa

A few nitpicks concerning the BE:

1. I think you overlooked UConn
2. You have BC and Villanova in the same 8 team bracket.
3. I assume Notre Dame is the last team in (or one of them)

JuniorNoboa

What is the case for Duke over Boston College for the #1 seed?

Personally I see it is as very close? Would BC be the #5 team in your rankings? It appears that you have them at #6 (Based on the assumption that you are using the snake and Wake would be #3)

Duke: #4 RPI, 4-0 vs top 50, Best Wins - Mich St at home, and Oklahoma neutral

BC : #5 RPI, 5-0 vs top 50, Best Wins - at UConn, at UCLA


Would it be the coaches ranking that is hurting BC?

xubrew

you're right, i did overlook connecticut. thanks for pointing that out. i believe they'd be seeded sixth or seventh, and notre dame would be out. when i do this, i have note cards with all the teams written on them, and i guess i just put uconn in the wrong stack. this isn't the first time i've screwed up like that.

the biggest case that duke has for a #1 seed over bc is the coaches poll. duke does have six quality wins, a tough sos and an rpi of #2, so they sort of edge them out there, but the coaches poll (which is what i used to guage the nabc rankings) duke is ahead by quite a bit.

i've switched miami and villanova.


this was tough to put together. there are several cases where teams could be seeded much different than where i wound up putting them. hopefully, this will get easier as the year goes on. it usually does.

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mattmo

You really think Vermont would score a 10 seed? Thanks for the genorosity. Could you explain your judgement further. I think they could go as high as 12 (as Lunardi projects them as of now), and that would be if they didn't lose from here on out or only once, to a top AE team like BU. They are closer to a 13-14 seed IMO.

froggyvk

I look forward to these every week, great job.

Am I in the minority that feels Boston College will end up a 4 or 5 seed? I had them going to the Elite 8 last year (Just lost to GT in 2nd round) because of Craig Smith. They're a great team, but a #2 seed and good enough for some to argue for #1?

How can you justify putting three of my Final 4 teams in the same bracket?

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xubrew

i don't believe they are going to end up with a #10 seed, but if it were to come out today, i believe that is where they would be. their rpi is in the 20s, i believe, and if i remember correctly they have very few bad losses.

however, once they get into conference play, their rpi is likely to drop even if they continue to win. also, not having any opportunities for them to pick up quality wins will hurt them as well, because teams from the bigger conferences will have more opportunties to play and beat rpi top fifty teams.

playing in the bracket buster should really help them out.

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xubrew

again, i think they'd be a #2 seed if the tournament were to start right now. whether they'll still be there in march is an entirely different story. if they blow through the big east, they certainly will be. if they end up losing five or six games, it will knock their seed down.

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