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**coolpohle** · 03-11-2007, 10:54 AM

It's been a bit of work doing these, but we've had some good discussions over them. Here is my final bracketology of the season, which is what I project to the best of my knowledge, to be what the Selection Committee comes up with. My goal is to get at least 31 of the available 34 at large bids correct.

Key:
Green = Projected Conference Tourney Winners (Auto-Bids)
Blue = Conference Tourney Winners (Auto-Bids)
Black = At-Large Bids (34 At Large, 31 Automatic)

West (San Jose)
1. UCLA
16. Weber St.
8. Michigan St.
9. Xavier

5. Marquette
12. Gonzaga
4. UNLV
13. New Mexico St.

6. Creighton
11. Illinois
3. Southern Illinois
14. Oral Roberts

7. Louisville
10. Old Dominion
2. Kansas
15. Miami (Oh.)

South (San Antonio)
1. Florida
16. Play-in Game
8. Kentucky
9. Virginia

5. BYU
12. Winthrop
4. Washington St.
13. Albany

6. Duke
11. Arkansas
3. Oregon
14. Pennsylvania

7. Butler
10. Georgia Tech
2. Wisconsin
15. Niagra

Midwest (St. Louis)
1. Ohio St.
16. North Texas
8. USC
9. Indiana

5. Tennessee
12. Holy Cross
4. Maryland
13. Wright St.

6. Virginia Tech
11. Missouri St.
3. Pittsburgh
14. Long Beach St.

7. Arizona
10. Syracuse
2. Memphis
15. Eastern Kentucky

East (East Rutherford)
1. UNC
16. Central UConn
8. Boston College
9. Vanderbilt

5. Notre Dame
12. Davidson
4. Texas
13. George Washington

6. Nevada
11. Air Force
3. Texas A&M
14. Texas A&M C.C.

7. Villanova
10. VCU
2. Georgetown
15. Belmont

Play-in Game: Jackson St. vs. Florida A&M

Last Four In: Illinois, Air Force, Missouri St., Arkansas
First Four Out: Purdue, Texas Tech, Drexel, Florida St.
Next Four Out: Kansas St., Stanford, Bradley, Oklahoma St.

Conference Breakdown: ACC (7), Big East (7), Big 10 (5), Pac 10 (5), SEC (5), Big 12 (3), Missouri Valley (3), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WAC (2)

**coolpohle** · 03-11-2007, 11:34 AM

Here's how I analyzed the bubble teams:

Illinois: Top 30 RPI won't get snubbed from a major conference. No bad losses (15-0 against RPI 101+), went 9-7 in the 4th rated RPI conference, solid 4-2 record against RPI 51-100.

Air Force: Their #30 RPI sure looks a lot better than when they made it in at #50 last year. I don't think the committee will have any problems giving 3 bids to the Mountain West (the #8 RPI conference). 6-1 against RPI 51-100 will punch their ticket.

Missouri St.: The committee's gotta make up for snubbing them last year. After all, they can't only give two bids to the 6th rated conference, can they? 12-6 in the MVC, 2-0 against RPI 26-50, 6-3 against RPI 51-100, and they've got a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court.

Arkansas: Doesn't seem like anyone has this team in, yet, dating all the way back to 2000, never has a top 37 RPI team from a major conference missed the dance. Arkansas is sitting comfortable at #35. 4-2 against RPI 26-50, and a trip to the SEC final should be good enough.

Purdue: Mediocre RPI in the mid 40s, only one top 25 RPI win, only 2-2 against RPI 26-50 won't be good enough.

Texas Tech: Tough to get in with an RPI over 50, and 9-7 in the 7th best conference isn't anything special. 1-3 against RPI 26-50, and 2-3 against RPI 51-100 are pretty bad to get an at-large.

Drexel: Just not enough spots open for Drexel thanks to Butler, Nevada, and Xavier. 1-4 against RPI 26-50 is a really ugly stat. A road win over Syracuse is good, but it doesn't hold as much weight as everyone thinks.

Florida St.: Tough to get in at 7-9 no matter how good your conference is, especially with the drubbing UNC handed them in their season finale sitting in the back of the committee's minds. 2-4 against RPI 26-50, 2-3 against RPI 51-100.

Kansas St.: Sorry Mr. Huggins, but you don't deserve to be in. 10-6 in the 7th best conference, with a very unbalanced conference schedule won't do it, especially when you only have one top 25 win and an RPI in the mid 50s. 1-2 against RPI 26-50, 3-2 against RPI 51-100 is nothing special.

Stanford: I'm sick of everyone talking about all the injuries they had. It's part of the game, and you have to deal with it. It's not an excuse. An RPI of (gulp) 65 can't make it in when you lose 4 of your last 5, can it? Is 10-8 in the Pac 10 really that impressive when they've got two teams with RPIs in the 200s?

Bradley: Another case of just not enough bids being available. Only one top 25 win, and 1-3 against RPI 26-50.

Oklahoma St.: Nice upset of A&M, but they had to beat Kansas to have any shot of getting in after going 6-10 in conference play.

DaBruins · 03-11-2007, 01:29 PM

Yes, 10-8 is that impressive for a bubble team in one of the best conferences in the country.

Just some points of disagreement for me: USC is way too low at 8, i think they get a 5. I also dont think Wisconsin can get a 1 unless they beat OSU, so Florida would probably be my 1 seed there.

**coolpohle** · 03-11-2007, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBruins

Yes, 10-8 is that impressive for a bubble team in one of the best conferences in the country.

Just some points of disagreement for me: USC is way too low at 8, i think they get a 5. I also dont think Wisconsin can get a 1 unless they beat OSU, so Florida would probably be my 1 seed there.

Well, I guess they didn't think so when Stanford didn't get in at 11-7 last year. It's like going 9-7 in the Big 10 this year. It's okay, nothing great.

Lunardi's got them at 8 as well. They've got an RPI around 40, with that drubbing that Oregon gave them looming in the back of the committee's minds. I'd be surprised if they got anything better than a 7. Who do you move them ahead of? Louisville? Arizona? I'm not so sure.

I'm gonna switch Wisconsin and Florida assuming Ohio St. hangs on to win today.

DaBruins · 03-11-2007, 02:25 PM

Arizona doesn't deserve to sniff the seeding that should be given to USC, but who knows what will really happen. USC got killed by an Oregon team that couldn't miss, but that doesnt take away from the fact that they beat Stanford and Washington St in the Pac 10 tourney. Stanford's record last year has nothing to do with this year, the Pac 10 is about 100.1 times stronger this year than last. They're clearly one of the tougher cases in this years bubble because of their 18-12 record, but I hope they get in because they can do some damage.

**coolpohle** · 03-11-2007, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBruins

Arizona doesn't deserve to sniff the seeding that should be given to USC, but who knows what will really happen. USC got killed by an Oregon team that couldn't miss, but that doesnt take away from the fact that they beat Stanford and Washington St in the Pac 10 tourney. Stanford's record last year has nothing to do with this year, the Pac 10 is about 100.1 times stronger this year than last. They're clearly one of the tougher cases in this years bubble because of their 18-12 record, but I hope they get in because they can do some damage.

Arizona's got a top 15 RPI, and doesn't have any bad losses, while USC has 2 losses to RPI 101+.

**coolpohle** · 03-11-2007, 02:44 PM

Okay, my bracket is finalized. Let's see how I do.

Does the committee throw us some curveballs? Does Georgia Tech and/or Old Dominion get snubbed?

Does Florida St. or Bradley somehow sneak in?

Should be interesting...

DaBruins · 03-11-2007, 04:26 PM

Well i was right on USC, Arizona, Florida, and Stanford.

**coolpohle** · 03-11-2007, 04:29 PM

I think I got 30 out of the 34 at-large bids correct. Guess there's room for improvement next year.

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