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Old 03-15-2007, 09:35 AM   #1 (permalink)
JuniorNoboa
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So now that the tourney has started:

Here are the biggest mistakes people made in selecting there brackets*

1. A clear mistake is not taking all the four seeds to the sweet sixteen, unless you clearly beleive a 5 seed can go a while. There is usually a talent drop between 12 and 13, which is why 12 seeds getting by is so much more common. Given the abundance of 12 vs 5 upsets, the 4 seed usually has a clearer path to the sweet sixteen. FACT A four seed is more likely to make it to the sweet sixteen then a three seed, largely due to there favourable second round matchup compared to a three seed.

As follow up to those points:
a) Some of you found Davidson intriguing. Intriguing enough to ignore clear defeats against Duke, Michigan and Missouri.
b) Yes Virginia sucks as a 4 seed, and are more vulnerable then most 4's. But there still a better team then Albany. What's the point of choosing Albany when there is no chance there going to go further, especially against a good Tennessee squad, who will make it to the elite eight.

2. Oden and Durant - Everybody is going to be taking Ohio St and Texas becuase of these two, except the hardcore (us here). YOu increase your chances of winning by taking teams that are just as good but different from the norm. But I had to Texas to the Sweet 16, because of my always take the 4 rule.

3. Using past trends of schools when they still have the same coach (ok, fairly good strategy). Using trends when they have a different coach is dumb.












* By all means call me out on my arrogance when I finish last.

Last edited by JuniorNoboa : 03-15-2007 at 09:43 AM.
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Old 03-15-2007, 10:13 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: So now that the tourney has started:

Well, Davidson is down 1 at the half to Maryland so they can't be that bad, but Butler is my sweet 16 in that bracket.

I filled out my bracket in 5 minutes this year, just didn't have time to really do much research. That probably means I'll win the ESPN pool this year! Oh, and I went against your advice picking Florida to lose to Jackson State

However I will say your advice is sound. Usually picking first round upsets isn't worth it as only a few will make it to the sweet 16 where you really start earning the points. You might as well pick chalk til the sweet 16, then look at the matchups and do your best.
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Old 03-15-2007, 10:14 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: So now that the tourney has started:

I told you so!

Maryland up by 1 at the half against Davidson...
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