JuniorNoboa

These were my seeds at the beginning of the week.

1 Tennessee Memphis UNC UCLA
2 Texas Duke Kansas Xavier
3 Stanford Louisville Georgetown Indiana
4 Wisconsin Notre Dame Uconn Washington St
5 Purdue Drake Vanderbilt Marquette
6 Butler BYU St. Mary's Michigan St
7 Miami Kansas St Arizona Pitt
8 Kent St Clemson USC Arkansas
9 Umass Villanova West Virginia Gonzaga
10 Miss St UNLV St. Joseph's Oklahoma
11 South Alabama Texas A&M Baylor VCU
12 Florida Illinois St New Mexico Wake Forest
13 Arizona St Siena Oral Roberts Davidson
14 Boise St Portland St Winthrop Cornell
15 Northridge Austin Peay American Belmont
16 UMBC Lamar Robert Morris Morgan St Alabama St




Second Last 4 In - Baylor, St. Joes, Texas A&M, Florida
Last 4 In - Illinois St, New Mexico, Wake Forest, Arizona St

Last 4 Out - Houston, Maryland, Ohio St, Kentucky
Next 4 Out - Syracuse, Rhode Island, Stephen F Austin, Virginia Tech



The purpose of this thread is probably for me to disccuss with myself what is happening this week, lol. Feel free to chime in.

HB

Where's Minnesotta?

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JuniorNoboa

Monday Feb 25 Results:

Texas over Kansas St: This was the last real challenge for Texas in the regular season, and makes them the first team with 10 top 50 wins. Since I am predicting a loss by Tennessee, on Tuesday (cough, cough), this win moves into the first seed line next week as long as they take out Tech.

As for Kansas St. not a huge loss, they are a lock for the tourney and won't really hurt their seed but a win would have been nice,

Gonzaga beats Portland = Gonzaga does what it has to, doesn't help them. If they can beat St. Mary's twice down the stretch maybe then can get a five seed.

St, Mary's beat San Diego = See Gonzaga above/

Marquette beats Villanova - A crushing defeat for Villanova. You can't let these opportunities slide when you are at .500 and on the bubble and at home. Villanova is one of those optics teams. There resume looks OK, as long as they don't have a sub .500 record. The question is will the committee give them credit for the G'Town screwup?

As for Marquette there goal has to be a 4 seed, and this is there best road win since beating Wisconsin. Probably still a 5 seed for now, as they wait for people to fall.

Looking forward to some great games on Tuesday.

I predict that Vanderbilt will win at home against Tennessee by three points in a chippy game.

rocketeer

you've got lamar at 15 and 16.

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JuniorNoboa

Minnesota is 0-8 against top 100 teams. They need to beat Ohio St at home, Purdue on the road, and Indiana on the road, to even enter the discussion for one of the last eight team out.

JuniorNoboa

Lamar is ranked 15, and Lamar St. is ranked 16. I will make it more clear.

JuniorNoboa

Tuesday Matchups

Vanderbilt-Tennessee - The marquee matchup of the week and as I predicted and documented in the post above, Vanderbilt won by three points.

This is a huge win for Vanderbilt. There great record and RPI entering the game were rather shallow. Probably move into the 4 seed. Winning out is not inconceivable for this team, so don't discount them going on a roll getting a 3.

As for Tennessee. It's just a numbers game. They lose the #1 seed to Texas. It will be hard for Tennessee to get the #1 seed over a top team from the ACC, PAC-10, or Big-12 all who are in better conferences. But then again they beat Memphis. The race for the #1 seeds is quite entertaining right now. I stick with UNC, UCLA, Memphis and Texas for now, with Duke and Tennessee really close behind. Kansas has some work to do.

Ohio St at Indiana - Just another solid victory for Indiana, who keep on pace for a 3/4 seed. As for Ohio St, they were not expected to win this game, but they were outside of the bubble coming into this game, and need something of substance to get back on the right side of the line. A road win would have been huge. But a 1-9 record against top 50 just won't cut it. I don't think they make it.

Drake vs Missouri St = No win game for Drake. Win does nothing for them, loss hurts them. And they lost, They still easily get in as an at large. The interesting thing about Drake is that in there last week there top 50 record has went way up from 1-0, to 6-2. With Southern Illinois, Illinois St, and Creigton all creeping into the top 50 RPI, will Drake look better to the committee? They can still get a 4 seed of they win the MVC, but I am thinking a 5 or 6 even if they win the MBC.

BYU over New Mexico - A nice win for BYU as winning at the pit always give you a little extra credit. As for New Mexico this was a crushing defeat. For a team on the bubble, you must beat those teams that are near your level at home. New Mexico does not get many chances to prove its worth, and losing at home will not help. They move from last 4 in, to one of the last 8 out.


UNLV over San Diego St at home - Another top 100 win for UNLV. A loss would have hurt there at-large possibilities, and they did what they were supposed to.

Virginia Tech over Boston College - Virginia Tech just keeps on winning. Yes they have a poor RPI of 62, yes they are 0-5 against top 50, there 17-11 record is not that sparkling, and there OOC sucked. But they are 8-6 in a conference where 8-6 is relevant. They have there play in game to the tournament on March 9.... beat Clemson on the road and they probably get in. Lose that game and they don't.

Impact of Games on Tuesday, Feb 26

OUT: New Mexico
IN: Maryland

JuniorNoboa

Wednesday Preview

Most Intriguing Games of the Night
1. Cincinnati at Pitt
2. Miami at Clemson
3. Texas Tech at Texas A&M
4. Creighton at Illinois St.




Appalachian St at Davidson: Davidson needs to go perfect in its regular season to keep its at large hopes. RPI is OK (top 60), but 0-5 record against top 100 is not.. although some will argue they placed UNC and Duke tough, and you can't really blame a loss at UCLA.

But they had three "tough" road games which were reasonable to expect them to win at least one - Charlotte, Western Michigan, and NC St. And they lost all of them. They are not a tourney team, IMO, but who knows how the committee will view them. Anyway they need to remain perfect in conferenc.

UNC Wilmington at VCU - VCU cannot afford to lose any more regular season games... especially a bad loss. But they probably get in the tournament if they lose in the Colonial tournament. While they have no huge wins either, they have won on the road vs three 50-100 teams in Akron. Houston and Bradley. Road wins against top 100 teams are importnat for these non power conference teams.

Kansas vs Iowa St : Kansas is still seeking the #1 seed. Obviously this game does nothing good for them. They need to beat Texas in the Big 12 tournament... they are also facing some better Big 12 teams down the stretch, which will help with the top 50 wins, which they are lacking right now.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh : Huge game for both teams.

Let's start with Pitt. Pitt has the solid wins and the nice RPI. As usual Pitt played a garbage OOC schedule, but they have the Duke win in their back pocket when they were a healthy team. If they lose this game they fall to 7-8 in conference, and getting to 9-9 will not be easy.

SO you say it's only 13-13 Cincy. Cincy has been flying under the radar at 8-6 in the Big East. If they win tonight they would be 9-6, and is certainly would not be an empty 9-6, with road wins at Louisville, West Virginia, and Pitt. They do have three bad losses, but two of them were in the first three games. If they win tonight, Cincinnati should be 11-7 entering the Big East tournament.

I really hope Cincinnati wins tonight, as Cincinnati could become the ultimate controversy on Selection Sunday. Can you deny a team at 11-7 in the Big East with alot of solid wins?

Miami at Clemson - Huge game for both teams, as they are both hovering near .500, and no team wants to enter selection sunday with a .500 confernece record.

Although, both teams likely go 9-7 or better regardless of tonight's outcome, but both would like the breathing room down the stretch.

Rhode Island at GW - Rhode Island has really suffered down the stretch. But they still a reasonable opportunity to cloe out at 9-7 and put themselves back on the bubble. Lose tonight and there dreams are over.

Southern Miss at Houston - Hosuton can't lose this game .. simple as that. But the damage has likely already been done.

Florida at Georgia - Florida has a weak resume right now. They can't afford to lose to a team like Georgia.

Tulsa at Memphis - The obvious. Don't lose this game Memphis or your not getting a 1 seed.

Oklahoma at Nebraska - Nebraska has played well lately, and a loss puts Oklahoma right on the last few lines as they would fall to 6-7. Oklahoma should still be able to pull out 9-7, but a loss tongiht would put alot of pressure.

auburn at Miss St - Miss St is 9-3 in the SEC, but will probably need to go 11-5 to get in as at large. Should happen, but can't lose this game

Baylor at Colorado - Like any team Baylor wants to be 9-7. They are 6-6, and need to take care of business tonight and at Missouri, so they only have to split down the stretch against Tech and A&M.

St. John's at Georgetown, Georgia Tech at Duke, Minnesota at Purdue : Don't lose any silly games. Duke still has a chance at the #1, Georgetown at the #2, and Purdue at a #3.

West Virginia at Depaul : A must win by West Virginia who lack quality wins and hence need a good BE record. At 8-6, they need this to win to get to 10-8... which may not be enough. But lose tonight (and at Depaul is no easy task) you can be starting at 9-9 with UConn and Pitt coming up.

Creighton at Illinois St - A must win game for both teams. Creigton moves onto the last 8 out line with a win, and Illinois St solidifies itself with a quality victory.

Ole Miss at Kentucky - Another opportunity for a top 100 victory for Kentucky which it really needs. Even at 10-3 in the SEC they are still on the bubble if they win tonight... who would have thought that at the beginning of the season. But at 12-4, which is distinctly possible, they cannot be denied. Win tonight and they will at least go 11-5, and be in the discussion on Selection Sunday.

As for Ole Miss... alot of teams would love to have your out of conference resume. But not your ****ty conference record. There done.

JuniorNoboa

Key Wednesday Results:

Clemson beats Miami at Home

Clemson pretty much locked there spot up in the tournament with a big win against Miami. They need to just avoid disaster and win 1 of 3. PREDICTION: IN

Miami falls to 6-7, but should be OK at 8-8... with their schedule they should end up 9-7. PREDICTION: IN

Arkanaas loses at Auburn

Arkansas has the quality wins 4-3 vs top 50, 7-5 vs top 100, but no standout victory. They also might end up at 8-8 in the down SEC, which might not be enough. Vanderbilt at Home is huge for them. PREDICTION: OUT (but as of today they are in)

Illinois St over Creighton

A huge victory for Illinois St, as they are right on the bubble and they cannot afford to lose against a top 100 team at home.

Illinois St has there play in game to the NCAA tournament this Saturday vs Southern Illinois. A top 50 road win would be what they need to touch off there resume.

Kentucky over Ole Miss

Entering this game Kentucky was 3-8 vs top 100 teams, and there gaudy 9-3 SEC record was not enough. It was a big win, and they will either end up 11-5 or 12-4. As of today, Kentucky might be in,. I think in the end they will get in.

Nebraska crushes Oklahoma

Nebraska continuies there strong play but too little too late. As for Oklahoma, no team even with a sound RPI and 5 top 50 victories wants to stare at a sub 500 conference record. There remaining schedule is tough and I can only see them at 7-9 or 8-8. 7 wins will not be enough. With this loss Oklahoma might have played themselves out of the tournament.

Pitt over Cincy

Crucial win for Pitt as they move to 8-7. There solid RPI, and win over Duke was enough as long as they go 9-9 in the Big East.

And Cincy could have caused a whole lot of mess and discussion if they had won and likely ended up at 11-7 in the Big East. But they likely go 10-8 and fall up short,

Texas A&M over Texas Tech

Texas Tech just did want to go away.. bad record, but every other metric was fairly good. But at 6-7, with games at Kansas and Texas coming up, this was a must win game. There done.

As for Texas A&M this was must win. There still in danger however, With road games at Oklahoma and Baylor, and a home game at Kansas, they might still be staring at 7-9,


Movement This Week:
OUT : New Mexico
IN: Kentucky



Thursday Preview


[b] Notre Dame at Louisville {/b]

Just a great basketball game. 5 very good Big East teams : Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Georgetown and Marquette are all fighting for anywhere from the 2 seed to a 5 seed depending on how the last few weeks and the conference tounrey plays out. But I beleive there is a 2 seed out there for either the regular season or tournamnet champion.

Maryland at Wake Forest

Two teams right on the bubble with extremely similar resumes going head to head )I have Wake last in, and Maryland last out right now). A win for Maryland would be more significant as it would be a quality road win, but neither can afford to lose.

[b] Wright St at Butler {/b]

Most people are sleeping on Wright St right now. And they are a longshot, but I can see how a committee could talk and convince themselves with a relatively weak bubble, that this team is good enough.

First off they must Butler for a second time this year. But beat Butler, they are 6-3 vs top 100 teams... and no top 70 RPI team with a record of 6-3 vs top 100 will be ignored.

UCLA at Arizona St

Arizona St is not crushed by this loss as (they will then have to beat USC at home), but a win nearly locks up their bid.

UCLA can't lose many more if they want to keep the 1 seed.


[b] Michigan St at Wisconsin {/b]

Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue and Michigan St are still jockeying for positioing for the 3-6 seeds in the tournament, and I think the conference tourney will have a big rolw to play. Michigan St really needs a good road win though/ Expect the committee to be lazy and just have four placeholders for the Big Ten by friday on the bracket, and they will just drop them in, based on how the tourney plays out.

coolpohle