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Old 03-01-2009, 07:56 PM   #1 (permalink)
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JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

Not trying to steal CP's Thunder, as he has done what it looks like an outstanding job all year, while I pop up here in the end.

But at least now I put something to be criticized rather then criticized.

Comments:
#1 SEED - I actually think there is a great chance that Michigan St gets the fourth #1 especially if they win the Big Ten tournament. 11 top 50 wins. I give absolutely 0% chance to Memphis getting a #1 seed. Never has a team with such a mediocore top 50 win profile (4-3 or 5-3 if they win out, with no win against a top 5 seed) ever come close to a #1 seed, and it will not happen this year. Guaranteed. They maybe playing like one of the four best teams in America, but the committee hands out #1 seeds to teams with an exceedingly outstanding quality win profile.


LAST TEAMS IN/ OUT :I actually came down to 12 teams for the last 8 spots. So here are the teams I debated:

Next to Last 4 IN: UNLV, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Maryland
Last 4 IN: Georgetown, Florida, Cincinnati, Miami (FL)
Last 4 OUT : Oklahoma St, South Carolina, Michigan, Providence
Next 4 OUT : Kentucky, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame

So why certain teams over the others?
Georgetown over Michigan - Georgetown's quality wins at the end of the day were more quality then Michigan. Michigan beat Duke at home (and it was there second crack at them), and UCLA is just a 6 or 7 seed right now.

South Carolina accomplished nothing OOC, and 10-6 does not carry much weight in the SEC. Only one top 50 win.

I really tried to look for some teams out of the BCS conferences, but there is just a lack of them this year.

Multiple Bid Conferences:
Big East (9)
ACC (8)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (5)
PAC 10 (5)
SEC (3)
Mountain West (3)
A-10 (2)
West Coast (2)


BUBBLE BURSTERS
You want these teams to win there conferences because otherwise they will bring along some uninvited quests:

Will Get In
Butler
Creighton
Gonzaga / St. Mary's ???

Likely Get In
Utah St

Possible At Larges
Siena
Davidson

Crazy Tournaments:
A-10 - Always is. Fairly common place for the tournament winner out of this conference to be out of it before the tournament starts.

SEC - I only have LSU / Florida / Tennesse in. I certainly see someone elese, winning this tournament.

Mountain West - San Diego, New Mexico and even Wyoming might cause havoc in this one.

So here are the seeds.

1 Uconn (1)
2 UNC (1)
3 Pitt (1)
4 Oklahoma (1)
5 Michigan St (2)
6 Louisville (2)
7 Kansas (2)
8 Memphis (2)
9 Duke (3)
10 Washington (3)
11 Xavier (3)
12 Wake Forest (3)
13 Illinois (4)
14 Villanova (4)
15 Missouri (4)
16 Florida St (4)
17 Clemson (5)
18 Purdue (5)
19 LSU (5)
20 BYU (5)
21 Marquette (6)
22 Arizona St (6)
23 Butler (6)
24 Syracuse (6)
25 UCLA (7)
26 Gonzaga (7)
27 Utah (7)
28 Texas (7)
29 Tennessee (8)
30 West Virginia (8)
31 Minnesota (8)
32 Boston College (8)
33 Dayton (9)
34 Arizona (9)
35 Creighton (9)
36 Ohio St (9)
37 Utah St (10)
38 Wisconsin (10)
39 Cal (10)
40 UNLV (10)
41 Texas A&M (11)
42 St. Mary's (11)
43 Maryland (11)
44 Siena (11)
45 Georgetown (12)
46 Davidson (12)
47 Florida (12)
48 Cincinnati (12)
49 Miami (FL) (13)
50 VCU (13)
51 Western Kentucky (13)
52 Stephen F Austin (13)
53 American (14)
54 Akron (14)
55 Vermont (14)
56 North Dakota (14)
57 Weber St (15)
58 Mirray St (15)
59 Pacific (15)
60 Cornell (15)
61 Robert Morris (16)
62 Morgan St (16)
63 Jacksonville (16)
64 Radford (16)
65 Alabama St (16)

Last edited by JuniorNoboa; 03-01-2009 at 10:07 PM.
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Old 03-01-2009, 08:03 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

Good stuff JN. I see you have Georgetown in and Florida in. Is this under the assumption Florida beats Kentucky or do you think their resume is already solid enough to get them in?
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Old 03-01-2009, 09:02 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

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Good stuff JN. I see you have Georgetown in and Florida in. Is this under the assumption Florida beats Kentucky or do you think their resume is already solid enough to get them in?

Florida has not done enough to be anywhere near a lock.

I have projected them in on the assumption that they beat Kentucky and Miss St to finish the season.

They could also be a victim of bubble busters.
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Old 03-01-2009, 09:16 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

South Carolina is going to get in if they win the SEC East. Of that I am sure.
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Old 03-01-2009, 09:19 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

Tennessee controls their own destiny in the East as of now after South Carolinas loss to Vandy last night. If Tennessee wins out I believe they would at least get a share or win the East outright.
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Old 03-01-2009, 09:25 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

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Originally Posted by HKF View Post
South Carolina is going to get in if they win the SEC East. Of that I am sure.
That point makes sense as the East is much stronger then the West, and it is the West that is really dragging down the division. The problem is I have projected USC to not win the division.

I projected that Tennessee will beat South Carolina on the road - so that's why I have South Carolina out. Its pretty much a toss up game, so sure I can see USC getting in on the basis you suggested.

I have
Tennessee 11-5
USC 10-6
Florida 10-6

South Carolina is then a victim of its useless OOC schedule.
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Old 03-01-2009, 09:27 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

Here is what my bracket would look like

Region : EAST (BOSTON)

Round 1/2 : Philidelphia

1 Uconn
16 Robert Morris

8 Minnesota
9 Dayton

Round 1/2 : Boise

4 Missouri
13 Western Kentucky

5 Clemson
12 Cincinnati

Round 1/2 : Miami

2 Memphis
15 Pacific

7 UCLA
10 UNLV

Round 1/2 : Philidelphia

3 Duke
14 Akron

6 Syracuse
11 Texas A&M


Region : SOUTH (MEMPHIS)

Round 1/2 :Greenboro

1 UNC
16 Morgan St

8 West Virginia
9 Arizona

Round 1/2 : Minneapolis

4 Illinois
13 Stephen F Austin

5 BYU
12 Florida

Round 1/2 :Greenboro

2 Louisville
15 Cornell

7 Texas
10 Utah St

Round 1/2 : Portland

3 Washington
14 Vermont

6 Butler
11 Maryland

Region : INDIANAPOLIS

Round 1/2 ayton

1 Pitt
16 Alabama St / Radford

8 Tennessee
9 Creighton

Round 1/2 : Portland

4 Florida St
13 VCU

5 Purdue
12 St. Mary's

Round 1/2 : Kansas City

2 Kansas
15 Weber St

7 Boston College
10 Wisconsin

Round 1/2 : Minneapolis

3 Xavier
14 North Dakota St

6 Arizona St
11 Georgetown

Region: ARIZONA

Round 1/2 :Kansas City

1 Oklahoma
16 Jacksonville

8 Utah
9 Ohio St

Round 1/2 : Boise

4 Villanova
13 Miami (FL)

5 LSU
12 Davidson

Round 1/2 : Dayton

2 Michigan St
15 Murray St

7 Gonzaga
10 Cal

Round 1/2 : Miami

3 Wake Forest
14 American

6 Marquette
11 Siena
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Old 03-02-2009, 06:33 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

I'll comment after I post mine this afternoon.

Crazy - yours is already updated on the bracket project. That guy really keeps up on these brackets.
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Old 03-02-2009, 08:47 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

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I'll comment after I post mine this afternoon.

Crazy - yours is already updated on the bracket project. That guy really keeps up on these brackets.
Yep - I e-mailed him last night though as I had not done one all year, and I had to be in by March 1 for inclusion - that's probably why it got in so quick.

I had not even looked at the matrix all year, until I completed my bracket, so there are some large deviations. I started to do my bracket based on what I think will be on selection sunday, rather then as of today. This is new for me this year, but it makes it more relevant.

Here are my thoughts on the deviations:

Marquette (6 instead of 4) - There schedule at the end of the season is really getting at them, and I think they could have an early BE tourney exit without James. But maybe 6 was too harsh. Maybe a 5.

Xavier (3 instead of 5) - Perhaps three was a little high. I really do like there OOC road wins, but then again they lost at home to a few teams below them. Possibly a 4.

Cal (10 instead of 7) - I was a little out to lunch I think on this. Probably should be higher then 10 - I got caught in comparing two teams, and using the bad consistently against Cal. Maybe a 7-8 next time - I was maybe cutting corners on the seeding by this point.

BYU (5 instead of 8) - Heavily predicated on BYU tieing for regular season lead with Utah. perhaps a little too kind. But I do like them more then Utah.

South Carolina (Out instead of 9) - Predict they will lose to Tennessee (if they win that changes things). Accomplished nothing OOC.

Oklahoma St (Out instead of In) - Didn't like there quality win profile. Nothing bad, nothign stood out though either.

Kentucky, Penn St, VTech (Out instead of IN) - Although the trend seems to be they are heading out on most of the latest brackets submitted.
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Old 03-04-2009, 05:09 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: JN's Unoffical BF Bracket (As of end of March 1, 2009)

I suppose we can both take Georgetown out now, eh JN? I guess that team just couldn't figure out how to win close games.

Big opportunity lost for Maryland last night losing a close one at home to Wake.

I think Oklahoma St. can safely be in all brackets now.
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