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Old 03-16-2009, 12:50 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Question Need help with March Madness fantasy tournament

Hey all, I do a fantasy draft every year for the NCAA tournament with some local guys. Along with 9 other managers, we do a snake draft and pick 10 players for the entire tournament. Most total points scored from all your players in the tournament wins. Rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots, etc. don't count (which sucks) but this is the way they run the contest.

The object is to accumulate the most points in the tournament from the ten players you selected. Once a player's team loses in the tournament, he is done and can score no more points for you. The best strategy is to draft skilled players on teams which you forecast to go deep in the tournament. The first 50+ or so picks in the draft are always guys on teams that everyone thinks will make the Elite Eight and Final Four.

Here is some additional strategy to think about.
  • Pick guards over big men. They handle the ball more and will take more shots if they are losing.
  • Spread your picks out across all four regions.
  • Try to select players from the top 4 seeds in each region. (Try to limit your selection of players from teams seeded higher than 4th).
  • When analyzing the top seeds in each region, stick with teams from the big conferences rather than the mid-majors.
  • Try to avoid picking players whose teams will play each other in the first or second round - you're guaranteed to lose a player.
  • With your late draft picks select players from higher seeds who are first or second on their team in scoring rather than players from #1 and #2 seeds that are 5th or 6th in scoring. The guy who gets 25 points a game is usually better than the player who plays 4 games and averages only 5 points.
  • Pick 3 point shooters. Players will shoot more 3 pointers if they are losing.
  • Pick guards who will get to the foul line late in a game (point guards or good foul shooters). This is a critical factor. So many times a game is already decided and the losing team just keeps fouling at the end. This is an easy way to add on more points.

So, given all this information and strategy, who would you draft in this year's tournament? My top 5 might look like this:

1. Tyler Hansbrough, UNC
2. Sam Young, Pitt
3. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
4. Ty Lawson, North Carolina
5. Kyle Singler, Duke

Who would you pick?
Your top 25 list would be sweet.
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Old 03-16-2009, 02:08 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Need help with March Madness fantasy tournament

That's an interesting idea, I like it. Here's my list for whatever it's worth:

1. Samardo Samuels, Louisville
2. DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh
3. A.J. Price, UConn
4. Shawn Taggart, Memphis
5. Kalin Lucas, Michigan St.
6. Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
7. Josh Heytfelt, Gonzaga
8. Darren Collison, UCLA
9. Ty Lawson, UNC
10. Jon Scheyer, Duke
11. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
12. DeMarre Carroll, Missouri
13. Cole Aldrich, Kansas
14. Derrick Brown, Xavier
15. Robbie Hummel, Purdue
16. Luke Nevill, Utah
17. Trevor Booker, Clemson
18. Terrence Williams, Louisville
19. Levance Fields, Pittsburgh
20. Jeff Adrien, UConn
21. Tyreke Evans, Memphis
22. Raymar Morgan, Michigan St.
23. Paul Harris, Syracuse
24. Matt Bouldin, Gonzaga
25. Josh Shipp, UCLA

Good Luck!
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Old 03-16-2009, 02:08 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Need help with March Madness fantasy tournament

That's an interesting idea, I like it. Here's my list for whatever it's worth:

1. Samardo Samuels, Louisville
2. DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh
3. A.J. Price, UConn
4. Shawn Taggart, Memphis
5. Kalin Lucas, Michigan St.
6. Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
7. Josh Heytfelt, Gonzaga
8. Darren Collison, UCLA
9. Ty Lawson, UNC
10. Jon Scheyer, Duke
11. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
12. DeMarre Carroll, Missouri
13. Cole Aldrich, Kansas
14. Derrick Brown, Xavier
15. Robbie Hummel, Purdue
16. Luke Nevill, Utah
17. Trevor Booker, Clemson
18. Terrence Williams, Louisville
19. Levance Fields, Pittsburgh
20. Jeff Adrien, UConn
21. Tyreke Evans, Memphis
22. Raymar Morgan, Michigan St.
23. Paul Harris, Syracuse
24. Matt Bouldin, Gonzaga
25. Josh Shipp, UCLA

Good Luck!
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Old 03-16-2009, 04:33 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Question Re: Need help with March Madness fantasy tournament

Thanks for taking the time to respond, coolpohle. Your input is highly valued.

Looking at your rankings, a few things intuitively don't make sense however. Namely, you have players with lower scoring averages ranked above players from that same team with higher scoring averages. For example, you have Samardo Samuels of Louisville ranked above both Earl Clark and Terrance Williams. Next, you have Shawn Taggart of Memphis ranked above Tyreke Evans, even though Taggert scores more than 6.0 ppg less than Evans! You also have both DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields in your top 25 with Sam Young, a 18.7 ppg scorer, nowhere to be found. Same thing for Cole Aldrich over Sherron Collins.

The only thing I can think of is that you believe that come NCAA tournament time, the scoring output from these players is suddenly going to skew. Intuitively, that seems strange to me. Why would the scoring trends from the regular season and conference tournaments no longer apply? Why does Shawn Taggert suddenly outscore Tyreke Evans in the NCAA tournament?

Also, while I haven't seen your brackets, you must have Utah winning many games in the tournament which is the only reason why I could see you including Luke Nevill. Personally, I don't think that Utah is going to get past Arizona, let alone Wake Forest or Louisville.
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Old 03-16-2009, 04:41 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Need help with March Madness fantasy tournament

It's certainly not an exact science, lung. I have Utah going to the Sweet 16 in my bracket but it's definitely plausible that Arizona knocks them off. That's where you'll have to project where players will be drafted and save someone like Nevill for one of your last picks.

The same kind of thing applies to Samuels. He probably won't be high on many people's boards so you can save him for later. At the same time, I would likely have Griffin ranked lower than anyone else, so I would advise letting someone else take him.

The reason why I didn't give much love to guys like Evans and Young is because I feel like they're overrated and a little too streaky for a format like this.

My best advice would be to draft players that you feel comfortable with and confident about.
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