I will be updating this thread on a near daily basis discussing movements in my seeds, or whatever else interests me.... teams falling, teams moving up.
The opening thread will be updated with my updates.
My seeding picutre is a projection. The best way to make projections is to rely on past data and past games, although in some cases I feel more strongly or less strongly about a few teams going forward and seed them accordingly.
Comments to my seedings or daily rantings are welcome throughout.
1 Texas
Kentucky
Kansas
Syracuse
2 Michigan St
Pitt
Villanova
Duke
3 Clemson
Tennessee
BYU
Kansas St
4 Wisconsin
West Virginia
Purdue
Georgetown
5 Northern Iowa
Temple
Georgia Tech
Gonzaga
6 Miss St
Xavier
Missouri
Ohio St
7 Vanderbilt
New Mexico
Florida St
Louisville
8 Tulsa
Arizona St
Wake Forest
Baylor
9
Old Dominion
Richmond
Texas A&M
Minnesota
10
Butler
William And Mary
Uconn
Ole Miss
11
St. Mary`s
Virginia
UNC
UNLV
12
Louisiana Tech
Dayton
UAB
Marquette
13
Murray St
Siena
Western Kentucky
Cornell
14 Oakland
Charleston
Long Beach st
Kent St
15 UTSA
Radford
Vermont
Northern Colorado
16 Quinnipiac
Morgan St
Campbell
Lafayatte
PV AM
MISS THE CUT
Memphis
Maryland
Rhode Island
Cincinnati
Florida
Cal
Notre Dame
Miami
Despite alot of results on Saturday, and some changing in seedings only two new teams enter the tournament.
In are Virginia and UAB.
Out are Cal and Miami.
Virginia despite having a weak OOC, is now 3-0 in the ACC. The benefit of being in a top conference is being able to overcome poor out of conference runs.
UAB moves in as a second CUSA team. I now project that two CUSA teams will have good enough resumes come tournament time. Will it be Tulsa, UAB or Memphis.
Cal goes out, the Pac-10 is eating themselves, and none of them had a good enough OOC. Simply put not one team in that conference can get in with an 11-7 in conference record. ASU is playing well, I predict they will get in. Cal is an 11-7 team in my eyes - no better then that, and that might not be enough for them. I think I will be changing my thoughts about 1 or 2 teams from the PAc-10 quite a bit over the next weeks.
Miami is gearing towards a 7-9 or 8-8 ACC record and the Minny win at home, is not enough to overcome there projected conference mediocrity.
UNLV took a big step back with there loss at home against Utah. Alot of teams in the bracket loss today, but they were road losses against as good team, so no big deal.
UNC - even though the RPI doesn`t reflect the toughest OOC, visually for the conference meembers they may deem it as such. Can`t ignore victoires over Ohio St and Michigan St. They WILL be able to sneak in with a 7-9 ACC record and middling RPI. Losses against Syracuse, Kentucky, Texas and AT Clemson (a projected 3 seed) are ignored. Charleston and GTech are noot good, but are offset by Ohio St and Michigan St victories.
The question is can they get to 7-9. Based on there 11 seed, that is the record I am projecting -- but not more then that,
I think Cornell gets a 12-seed. You have to remember that the only memory the selection committee is likely to have of them is taking Kansas to the wire.
I think you have Xavier and Louisville WAY high, and Vanderbilt a little high. I am also curious if even the Pac 10 winner will be able to win a 8-seed. Certainly not if they can't distance themselves from the field a little.
Also, Virginia is 3-0 in the ACC, with wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, two teams I feel are a little over-rated. I think you have to put them in right now, but they haven't beat anyone on the road in the ACC yet (NC State, their lone road conference win, is very weak.)
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Willo The ORI. Ugly site. Accurate ratings.
I think Cornell gets a 12-seed. You have to remember that the only memory the selection committee is likely to have of them is taking Kansas to the wire.
I think you have Xavier and Louisville WAY high, and Vanderbilt a little high. I am also curious if even the Pac 10 winner will be able to win a 8-seed. Certainly not if they can't distance themselves from the field a little.
Also, Virginia is 3-0 in the ACC, with wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, two teams I feel are a little over-rated. I think you have to put them in right now, but they haven't beat anyone on the road in the ACC yet (NC State, their lone road conference win, is very weak.)
I make projections based on what has happened in past committee selections. I do not state the committee will think something, when it has not necasarily been proven in the past. The only team that was rewarded for close losses was Davidson, and they had a series of good losses.
Cornell will be a 12 or a 13 seed, but at the same time they dont really have a big victory. They also lost at home to a big east team in the hall that is at the best NIT bound.
Vermont who nearly beat Kansas in 2005 on the road, and were glorified throughtout the year as darlings like Cornell only got a 13 seed.
As for the other differences.... I do not use AS is approach. I doubt there has ever been a 4 bid league that has not had two top seven seeds. Xavier is the second best A-10 team or possibly the best in my eyes, hence the seed.
Louisville is a good team that will get many quality victories in the Big East. Pitinos teams have always improved there stock in conference. They have had good games on the road recently at Kentucky, Pitt and played Nova tight. I think they are the sixth best team in the conference by year-end.
As for Vandy - they beat Florida, and two road victories in conference to start 3-0. Hardly think that seven seed is out of question.... it actually seems OK under the AS Is method as well.
Name the last best team of a top 9 conference not to have its champ with a seed of nine or higher. I project base on trends.
VIRGINIA
As for the NC ST win being weak.... look closely at there losses this year...not many bad ones. NC ST also beat Marquette and Florida ST on the road. Virginia has a pretty easy win against them at hone,
They crushed Miami today, and beat a good, albeit inconsistent GTEch team.
As I said in another post, the committee has proven over and over again its two key determinants in separating the bubble:
OOC quality wins
or
Top 50 wins
A team from a mid with a good record but neither of the above, always gets overlooked.
A 9-7 ACC team this year would get alot of Top 50 wins at HOME... one of the benefits of being in a top three conference.
I think Virginia is on upward trend such they get to 9-7, and given there quality wins at that point, the OOC will become irrelevant.
Last edited by JuniorNoboa : 01-16-2010 at 11:34 PM.
As for the other differences.... I do not use AS is approach. I doubt there has ever been a 4 bid league that has not had two top seven seeds. Xavier is the second best A-10 team or possibly the best in my eyes, hence the seed.
Missouri Valley. 2006.
I only bring it up because I think they are comparable. A lot of good teams, but only one great team.
For the record, the MVC had a 7, 10, 11 and 13 that year.
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Willo The ORI. Ugly site. Accurate ratings.
I only bring it up because I think they are comparable. A lot of good teams, but only one great team.
For the record, the MVC had a 7, 10, 11 and 13 that year.
You found a counter.... BUT
They are not comparable at all. Not even close.
MVC teams beat relatively nobody OOC while they were playing the RPI game, and hence they could not be granted top seeds. A-10 top seeds have many more quality OOC wins against BCS teams which will justify higher seeds.
I'm surprised to see you have Virginia in. They aren't really on my radar at this point. They had one of the weakest OOC schedules and went 8-4 including three head scratching losses. Sure, they've started conference play 3-0, but still have to play seven road games in which they will be an underdog in ALL of those. They will also be an underdog when they play Duke at home. So with 13 conference games left, they will be an underdog in eight. 9-7 is best case scenario. I don't see them in.
Pac 10 has to be Cal and Arizona St. There is no way they are only getting one bid and Washington does not have the resume to get in.
I have Cincinnati in with wins over Vandy, Maryland, and UConn so far, but it's definitely borderline.
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'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
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It's a 14 game conference season, but it's not a two bid league. I don't think either team is balanced enough to go 13-1, unless one can sweep the other.
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'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
I'm surprised to see you have Virginia in. They aren't really on my radar at this point. They had one of the weakest OOC schedules and went 8-4 including three head scratching losses. Sure, they've started conference play 3-0, but still have to play seven road games in which they will be an underdog in ALL of those. They will also be an underdog when they play Duke at home. So with 13 conference games left, they will be an underdog in eight. 9-7 is best case scenario. I don't see them in.
Pac 10 has to be Cal and Arizona St. There is no way they are only getting one bid and Washington does not have the resume to get in.
I have Cincinnati in with wins over Vandy, Maryland, and UConn so far, but it's definitely borderline.
Virginia is not a supportable choice numbers wise right now. But from what I have seen recently, and I like them, its a hunch... I am going to ride them until there next loss.
As for the Pac-10, a second team would get the benefit of the doubt with a decent resume.... I`m not so sure Cal will get to decent. And no other team did anything OOC to get in without winning 13 in the Conference. or maybe 12 with a run in the conference tourney to the final.
UCONN losing at Michigan - A loss they may not be able to afford. Right on the bubble now.
Minnesota loses at Indiana. Minnesota has nice power rankings, but at the end of the day they were 1-3 in there meaningful OOC games. Minny is going to need at least a couple more wins against the Big Ten big four to get safely in. Its not a given.
Marquette Validates Themselves by Crushing Providence - I doubt any team has had as tough a run at the beginning of conference play then marquette. A home and home with Nova, at home agatinst GTown and at WVU.
Yeah, Marquette is going to be fine. I think we're one of the few on the bracket project that have them in. They still get to play DePaul twice, Rutgers, and have four other road games. They will make it in.
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'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
Well it has been a while since I posted here, but I thought I would share I would thought were some of the biggest wins and biggest losses, or realistic missed opportunitesd today. For example, Seton Hall at WVU is certainly a big opportunity for the Hall that they missed out on, but it was not a realistic one. If the game had been at Seton Hall, I would have considered it a realistic missed opportunity.
Big Winners
UTEP - So my friends at the A-10 board snickered at my assertion that this team had and would likely have a very good resume as an at large - they are way too focused on there singular RPI figure, which does not mean anything. Well yes boys, its a near 100% guarantee, they will get an at-large, after they beat Tulsa on the road, to go 11-1 in the competitive CUSA conference. Assuming they beat UAB at home, they are likely going to be 14-2 or 15-1 in conference, and will be 5-0 against UAB, UTEP, and Memphis, including a road win against each. Along with there conference title, there road perfromance against those teams is simply too much too ignore.
Oklahoma St - I have been mostly negative in comparison to most on there resume and my expectations. There OOC had no bad losses, but was empty - no top 100 wins. Holding court against Baylor is a quality win, and it moves them to 7-5. They are still in line to go 8-8 with there upcoming schedule, (at Texas AM, at Texas, Kansas) but this game avoids 7-9 which I think would have got them short. Now they are on the bubble. I will probably still have them as out or last teams in at 8-8 on my next forecast, unlike most, but they are certainly closer to getting in then they were before.
Florida - A top 60 rad win down the stretch against Ole Miss - top 100 road wins are not that easy to come by for bubble teams. I said earlier this week that Florida needed a good road win if they only won 9 games, instead of simply holding court at home against Vandy and Tennessee. But now they look to be in good shape to get to 10 wins if they can split at home against Vandy and Tennessee - and that should be feasable. Still on the bubble, but much more likely after today.
Louisiana Tech - A longshot discussioné
A guality road win against Northeastern today - add that to wins against Murray St and Utah St, and the desire for western representation and what will be a top 70 RPI after today, and all of a sudden they burst into the bubble picture. A road loss against RPI 137 hurts, but hey thats what bubble teams do now and then.... and they may regret losing at home against New Mexico St. But they are now 8-4, and if they can win at Nevada (no given), they should go 12-4 in the WAC and I beleive that will give them an RPI around 60, and that could well be enough to get them in the tournament to represent the western conferences.
UConn - Winning at Rutgers is not easy... OK its not that much of a feat, but there weak has been huge. They are now 6-8. Due to there SOS they are probably the one BCS team that has the best shot at an large at sub .500. 8-10 will cut it tight, but 9-9 is a possibility if they can take out West Virginia at home. That next game against WVU is huge for them.
Utah St - They are obviously a better team then LTech in the WAC, and a more likely contender as an at large. They held court today against Wichita St- a nice win, but more importantly avoided the impact of losing. At 14-2 in the WAC, and a win against BYU, and the lack of western conference representation, I think they are an at-large team if they fail in the WAC tourney.
Missed Opportunities
Siena - It was a tough game to win at Butler, and perhaps it was unrealistic for them to win, but this was their. last chance for a big win. Losing by 17 will also hurt when there is only a sample of key games that is observed. This was the game that determined whether they could be an at-large or not. Now they need to win the MAAC.
Murray St - They are 26-3. I would have loved to see them play someone good in the bracket buster. Instead they were stuck with playing against a sub 100 team. They were a stretch as an at-karge, but they deserved a better game then Morgan St to show themselves off. Either way at 16-0 in conference, they should take care of business themselves.
Charlotte - Power ratings said this team was not so good - so did some blowouts. And this week there luck ran out - lost at home against Duquesne and Xavier to fall to 8-4. 10-6 appears likely. but 11-5 is still not an unreasonable possibility - if they get to 11-5 they would be hard to let out with 4 top 50 victories - Temple, at Richmond, Richmond and at Louisville.
Northeastern - A blown opportunity at home against La Tech, Its hard to beleive that the conference winner of a leauge with 4 top 67 RPI teams will not get an large, but Norhteastern has done so bad outside of cofnerence, that it appears likely.
Last edited by JuniorNoboa : 02-21-2010 at 02:45 AM.
Tracking the Seeds Through 2010
Linear Mode
