What do you guys think of the Bearcats' chances? Currently they are 14-7 with an RPI 47 and tied for 6th in the Big East with a 5-4 conference record. RPIforecast has them at 18-12 with an end of season RPI of #51.
In or Out?
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'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
I'll start us off - I have them barely in. They beat Vanderbilt and Maryland OOC which is better than a lot of teams can say. They've also beaten UConn in conference and don't have any ugly losses. They might struggle finishing .500 in conference play, but I think they're in if they do.
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'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
Cincinnati has one major positive on their side. Their ability to get a Signature win at home. They have the opportunity to play both Syracuse and Villanova at home. And there chances of winning one of those games is 64% according to KenPom.
This is the one advantage that BCS bubble teams have over mid-majors like A-10 teams. There resumes may be very similar right now, but they all have the chance of a major signature win at home, which isn`t that unlikely, which will differentiate them.
But man this is a tough schedule they have left. None of those 5 road games are easy. KenPom has it at 1.39 wins and that seems reasonable. That means to get to .500 they have to beat Marquette at home, and beat one of Villanova and Syracuse.
Thu Feb 4 (81) Notre Dame L, 74-73 67 45% Away
Sun Feb 7 (3) Syracuse L, 73-67 70 27% Home
Sat Feb 13 (43) Connecticut L, 70-64 68 28% Away
Tue Feb 16 (78) South Florida L, 65-63 64 41% Away
Sun Feb 21 (17) Marquette L, 66-64 64 41% Home
Wed Feb 24 (175) DePaul W, 65-53 61 92% Home
Sat Feb 27 (6) West Virginia L, 70-59 63 11% Away
Tue Mar 2 (13) Villanova L, 77-73 72 37% Home
Sat Mar 6 (14) Georgetown L, 72-61 66 14% Away
So I leave it at this. If they beat either Syracuse or Villanova at home they are in... and that is possible. If they don`t I think they get to 8-10 and fall short. At 9-9 with a signature win they are probably a clear in.
If they don`t I think they get to 8-10 and fall short. At 9-9 with a signature win they are probably a clear in.
Any chance that a run in the Big East tournament puts them in even if they don't get those wins?
Wait, would they have enough wins to qualify for the Big East tournament? They're taking only the top 8 teams this year or something? Would Cincy be in that group?
They should be in that group even if they finish at 8-10. They are 6th and have Notre Dame, UVille, and South Florida under them right now. They must beat Villanova or Cuse unless they go on a heck of a win streak. If they can get 20 wins without beating either one it will be bubble city for them.
Any chance that a run in the Big East tournament puts them in even if they don't get those wins?
Wait, would they have enough wins to qualify for the Big East tournament? They're taking only the top 8 teams this year or something? Would Cincy be in that group?
As far as I am aware the Big East Tournament is the same as last year with all 16 teams being invited, and the top four teams having byes through the first two rounds, and the 5-8 seeds having a bye in the first round. At 8-10 Cincy would probably be in the bottom half, so they would have to play in the round of 16 possibly against a bad team... maybe a Depaul, Rutgers or a Providence or St. John`s. In round 2, if they win, they would play a 5-8 seed which would be a quality win. In round 3, they would play a 1-4 seed. If they win that game they make it to the semis and probably get in the tournament comfortably because even with a loss they would be 11-11 in the Big East with a number of quality wins.
I would say at 9-9, all they would likely have to do is win their first tourney game to lock it up.
Of course these are just estimated `more likely then not in`` targets. I won`t guarantee anything until they hit 10-8, or are over .500 when you combine the regular BE games and tourney games.
Haha, wait. Didn't they just expand a couple years ago to include all 16 teams? Or am I making that up to. I could have sworn something like that happened. Maybe I dreamed it.
Haha, wait. Didn't they just expand a couple years ago to include all 16 teams? Or am I making that up to. I could have sworn something like that happened. Maybe I dreamed it.
It included all 16 teams last year.
__________________
'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
In or Out: Cincinnati?
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