This is not based off if the season ended today and does not include games played on Sunday the 7th. I'm projecting the end of the season bracket. I will likely update on Wednesday again.
Projected Auto Bids in Green
At-Large Bids in Black
1 Seeds
Kansas
Syracuse
Duke
West Virginia 2 Seeds
Kentucky
Kansas St.
Villanova
Wisconsin 3 Seeds
Purdue
BYU
Georgetown
Texas 4 Seeds
Tennessee
Baylor
Michigan St.
Butler 5 Seeds
New Mexico
Wake Forest
Vanderbilt
Georgia Tech 6 Seeds
Northern Iowa
Ohio St.
Pittsburgh
Temple 7 Seeds
Texas A&M
UNLV
Xavier
California 8 Seeds
Gonzaga
Missouri
Maryland
Florida St. 9 Seeds
Rhode Island
Clemson
Dayton
Louisville 10 Seeds
Old Dominion
Marquette
Utah St.
St. Mary's 11 Seeds
Mississippi
Cornell
Florida
Virginia Tech 12 Seeds
UAB
Siena
Oklahoma St.
Washington 13 Seeds
Minnesota
South Florida
Murray St./Ohio Valley
Kent St./MAC 14 Seeds
Sam Houston St./Southland
Wofford/Southern
Montana/Big Sky
Pacific/Big West 15 Seeds
IUPUI/Summit
Morgan St./MEAC
Coastal Carolina/Big South
Belmont/Atlantic Sun 16 Seeds
Vermont/America East
Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
Quinnipiac/Northeast Play in Game: Lehigh/Patriot vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff/SWAC
Breakdown by Conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (4), Mountain West (3), Pac 10 (2), West Coast (2).
Last Four In: Oklahoma St., Washington, Minnesota, South Florida First Four Out: Richmond, UTEP, VCU, UConn Next Four Out: Mississippi St., Charlotte, San Diego St., Arizona St.
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'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
Last edited by coolpohle : 02-07-2010 at 12:34 PM.
The thing that killed Memphis last year from getting a 1 seed was their SOS. Granted, Kentucky is from a BCS conference while Memphis is not, but their schedule has been really soft you have to admit. So far, they've played four teams that I have projected in (Louisville, Florida, Vandy, and Ole Miss) and only one of those has been on the road and only one is projected as better than a nine seed. Odds are they will finish with the same conference record as Duke, so I'll give the edge to the team with the tougher schedule.
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'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
I think were pretty close : I do not have South Florida, Minnesota or Oklahoma St in. I have Richmond, UTEP and Illinois instead. I think Illinois might get in with a very high RPI as they do have a few nice OOC victories... along with alot of crap though.
One team I am starting to consider is Northesastern. Yes they had a bad OOC. BUT if they win the CAA regular season title I think they will get rewarded with a bid.... it is the reward for winning the regular season conference amongst a group of fairly solid teams... same reason that I think whoever wins the Pac-10 regular season title will get in,
Winning the Regular Season CAA or the Regular Season Pac-10, is pretty powerful under the eye ball test.
The other thing to keep in mind is with less BCS bids this year, you have more at large representation from multi conferences. That increases the number of bubble busters. I set my estimate at 3 or 4 right now... so basically last 4 in, would really be out of the tournament.
I`m also projecting 2 CUSA... the regular season champ, whoever it is, I think will be rewarded, because it is the best of 4 or 5 solid teams.
Just my hunch, but winning the CAA, CUSA, or Pac-10 regular season title, no matter who, earns you a berth in the dance.
Last edited by JuniorNoboa : 02-07-2010 at 08:44 PM.
The thing that killed Memphis last year from getting a 1 seed was their SOS. Granted, Kentucky is from a BCS conference while Memphis is not, but their schedule has been really soft you have to admit. So far, they've played four teams that I have projected in (Louisville, Florida, Vandy, and Ole Miss) and only one of those has been on the road and only one is projected as better than a nine seed. Odds are they will finish with the same conference record as Duke, so I'll give the edge to the team with the tougher schedule.
As I told last year, what really killed Memphis was how they perfomed against the top teams it faced OOC. It went 2-3 against the top five teams it faced OOC. The CUSA was not seen as that good, so there chance of getting a 1 seed was over before the conference season even started. Certainly the SOS is true, and they could have overcome that factor IF they had played well OOC. The committee did not consider the entire body of work... I think they looked more at the 2-3 record against good teams.
Of Course Kentucky did not play that same level of contenders OOC... but it never lost against Louisiville, UNC and UConn. And since the SEC provides some chance for quality wins in it, the committee will be less reliant on OOC... where there are no bad things anyway, just not many great things.... but Memphis needed great things OOC last year.
The one seeds is about the only thing I got right last year (in the final bracket), but that picture changed alot in the last few weeks with the rise of Louisville in feb and mar.
My one seeds - Kansas, SU, Kentucky, WVU.. with Duke and Villannova right behind them.
I'm not seeing Illinois. I know they're 8-3 right now, but they still have to play @ Wisconsin, @ Purdue, and @ Ohio St. They could get to 11-7, but I'm not even sure that will be good enough. Going 8-5 OOC is a lot to recover from.
Crazy to think Northeastern could get an at-large after starting the season 2-7, isn't it? I think they have a shot as well but they can only afford to lose two more games including the conference tournament.
__________________
'07-'08 Locks of the Day Champ 73-42-1 (63%) ATS
2008 Basketball Forum NCAA Tourney Challenge Champion
Playing a hunch with Illinois. Basically I think they might get in even if they dont deserve to.
Well they did go 8-5 in the non-conference slate with a couple nice wins over Clemson and Vanderbilt.. on the other hand losses to Utah/Bradley/Georgia dont help anything.. Losses to Missouri and Gonzaga arent that bad though..
2-7 Bracket
Linear Mode
