xubrew

-CONFERENCE PLAY HAS FINALLY BEGUN!!! for the many rpi sticklers out there, it has started to devolop some consistency, but it is by no means as accurate as it will be at the end of the season. it is similar to a batting average in baseball. the more at bats a person gets, the more accurate it is going to be and the less it will change from week to week. instead of rooting for your conference teams to win ooc games, it is now time to begin to root for the teams you played ooc as they begin conference play, not to mention, win your own games. if a team has an rpi in the teens now, it won't make a damn bit of difference if they finish in the 60s and vice versa.

-the injury bug has once again plagued gonzaga. it must be something in the water out there because this is a recurring problem. tony skinner and richard fox are out indefinitely. however, if they are able to return and play at full strength in the ncaa tournament, the ncaa selection committee will take into consideration any games they may have lost due to their abscence.

-providence is in the top 10 for the rpi and sos. they have also had some impressive wins. however, providence is not ranked, which is sort of disturbing because the coaches poll tends to reflect the nabc rankings. playing in the big east will certainly give them some opportunities to build their resume to get them placed highly on the board.

-texas tech is another high rpi, high sos, team with quality wins, but no ranking. however, similar to providence they will get their chances.

-just to clarify, the actual coaches' poll is not present before the selection committee, but the nabc rankings are. similar to the coaches poll, it is made up of 1 coach from each conference (31 in total). they are asked to rank the top 15 teams in their geographic region. although the coaches poll is not present, one would think that the coaches poll would be the best guage for the nabc rankings because they are so similar in structure. i know it does not matter until the end, but i cannot help but wonder why these teams aren't ranked AT ALL.

-the columbus pod looks like it is going to be fun. 3 teams, 2 spots. louisville, kentucky and cincinnati. dayton has gone into the tank and i do not think they have a legitimate shot at being placed higher than 2 of those teams to get into columbus. in fact, i'd go so far to say that i don't even think dayton would be in the tournament at all if it started today.

-the orlando and raleigh pods are also stacked. florida, florida state (who still has a shot if they can finish toward the top of the acc), north carolina, duke, georgia tech and wake forest are all going for those spots, not to mention other sec teams who have not had a chance to make their mark. the delimma is this: whatever carolina teams that do not get into raleigh would likely be placed in orlando IF there is space available. if florida makes it into the pod system, the selection committee may not move them out of orlando, even if some of the carolina teams are higher on the board. newmessiah (god rest his soul) reminded me not too long ago that this has happened before. people that say college basketball does not start until march are ignorant. the stakes are EXTREMELY high in the acc and sec right now.

-gonzaga and stanford seem to be in current control of seattle while arizona seems to be the current front runner for denver. (emphasis on CURRENT)

-saint josephs is unbeaten, high in the rpi (currently #1 i believe) and is the front runner for buffalo. to date, they have played a tough schedule that is ranked in the top ten, but i look for that to drop once some of their ooc teams get into conference, not to mention the fact that the a-10 is currently ranked #9. that isn't bad, but it certainly isn't good enough to keep the sos in the top ten. however, they will have a few shots at quality wins in conference. they should also dominate their division if they stay healthy.

-connecticut is the other front runner for the buffalo pod. however, i cannot help but notice that they have not played any quality teams other than rice. rice remains their only true road game. they will have to do well in conference (which i think they will) because other than wins against rice and utah, nothing they did out of conference will really help them that much.

-utep won 10 of their first 11 games, but then dropped a bad one to boise state. they are still high in the rpi, but as i mentioned earlier, we have a long way to go and they can ill afford too many losses.

-western michigan is another team to watch. they have a high rpi, decent sos, and control their own destiny as far as an at large bid goes IF they can do well in the mac.

-murray state also controls their own destiny, but they have less control than western michigan. western michigan's margin for error is small. murray's is even smaller. however, i think that they are definitely good enough to dominate the ovc, which is what they are going to have to do to get an at large bid. they lose 3 more games, i think they'll have to win the ovc tournament to get into the tournament. in fact, i'd say 2 more losses prior to the conference tournament would be pushing it.

-based on ooc play, i believe that there are already some conferences that have no shot at an at large bid even if a team runs the table. however, that does not mean that the rest of the season is not important because for whatever team does win the conference tournament, there is a HUGE difference between a 14 seed and a 16 seed. here are the conferences that i think are already done...

big sky
big south (MAYBE birmingham southern if they win out)
all the independent teams
ivy league (because there is no tournament)
meac
northeast (MAYBE monmouth if they win out)
patriot (MAYBE lafayette if they win out)
swac

many of the other lower level conferences that i did not mention only have 1 or 2 teams that have a shot, and most of those teams would have to win out to get it. however, there is a slight chance, so i'm not eliminating them yet. even if some of the teams that i mention above win out, i'd say there chances are about 50/50. it wouldn't be a sure thing.


-i will post my bracket projections later this week, probably wedensday. i will try to post a bracket every week between now and the end of the year.

-college football still does not have a playoff.

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IT'S MILLER TIME!!!