Rhyder

I know I have not done this in a season or two, but real life had gotten in the way of my hobby of basketball handicapping.

For those new to the board, I handicap basketball based on an efficiency system that has been a work in progress over the last 15 years. These are the results of the teams based on the games they have already played this season.

Important to note, the following are not factored into the equation:
Strength of Schedule
Home vs. Away
Injuries
Garbage Time

I probably will not be doing this weekly, but I will try and get it out every couple of weeks. Enjoy!

Rhyder

As of games completed 1/16 (last night's games not taken into account)

1 Philadelphia 15.6
2 Miami 9.7
3 Chicago 8.6
4 Oklahoma City 6.7
5 Orlando 6.3
6 Atlanta 5.9
7 LA Lakers 5.8
8 Denver 5.4
9 Boston 3.2
10 San Antonio 2.9
11 LA Clippers 2.7
12 Portland 1.9
13 Phoenix 1.8
14 Indiana 1.3
15 Minnesota 1.3
16 Cleveland 0.1
17 Toronto -0.1
18 Milwaukee -1.3
19 New York -1.9
20 Utah -2.0
21 Memphis -3.0
22 Dallas -3.0
23 Golden State -3.5
24 Houston -3.6
25 New Orleans -3.7
26 Washington -10.9
27 Charlotte -11.2
28 Sacramento -11.7
29 Detroit -11.8
30 New Jersey -12.6

Observations:

*There are five horrible teams in the league right now. That was probably fairly obvious.

*There really is not much difference between the 9th rated team and the 25th rated team. It seems as though any of those teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

*Philadelphia...wtf? I know they have had an extremly easy schedule thus far, but their current rating beat last year's Heat by 2. I doubt they keep it up, but it will be interesting to follow.

*Power seems to have shifted back to the East, following the trend from last season.

thebizkit69u

Sixers are playing great ball but I don't understand how you would rank them ahead of the Bulls who have a better winning %, played the most games in the LEAGUE and the Thunder who are absolutely BALLING right now.

Rhyder

Keep in mind that I am measuring efficiency, and that is how Philadelphia has played up to this point in the season.

I would expect the Heat and Bulls rating to improve due to the injuries to key players they have suffered. I would expect Philadelphia's rating to fall as they face more playoff caliber teams. I have not really been following the Thunder to comment on how they are playing now vs. the beginning of the season.

In seasons past, the contenders usually have ratings of 10+. 6+ rated teams are usually playoff locks. I definitely would not say at this point in the season that Philly is the favorite, but I do feel like it is an interesting trend to watch.

yodurk

It really is crazy how lightweight Philly's schedule has been. I've barely seen anything quite like it. It is impressive that they've been demolishing these teams, but it's really easy to keep the momentum going when you really haven't faced any adversity whatsoever.

Wins
Phoenix (4-9)
Golden State (5-8)
New Orleans (3-10)
Detroit (3-11)
Toronto (4-10)
Indiana (9-3) --> Only win against good caliber competition (won by 10 pts)
Sacramento (4-10)
Washington (1-12)
Washington (1-12)
Milwaukee (4-9)

Losses
Portland (8-5)
Utah (9-4)
New York (6-7)

I wouldn't be too worried about them. The Bulls have a much superior frontcourt, are equally deep, and a better "best player".

Rhyder

As of games completed 1/29

01 Philadelphia 11.7
02 Oklahoma City 9.1
03 Chicago 8.1
04 Miami 7.8
05 Denver 6.5
06 Atlanta 5.4
07 Boston 4.6
08 Dallas 3.5
09 San Antonio 2.8
10 Orlando 2.7
11 Houston 2.7
12 LA Clippers 2.5
13 LA Lakers 2.4
14 Portland 2.2
15 Minnesota 1.2
16 Indiana 0.6
17 Memphis 0.5
18 Utah -0.1
19 Golden State -0.4
20 Milwaukee -1.7
21 Phoenix -1.8
22 New Orleans -3.6
23 Cleveland -3.8
24 New York -3.9
25 Toronto -4.1
26 New Jersey -8.3
27 Washington -9.6
28 Charlotte -10.5
29 Detroit -10.9
30 Sacramento -12.9

Who's Hot (based on change in rating)
Dallas +6.5
Houston +6.3
New Jersey +4.3

Who's Not (based on change in rating)
Toronto -4.0
Philadelphia -3.9
Cleveland -3.9

Observations

*Philly, while still #1, has started to drop towards reality. I would expect their rating to continue to fall, but will be interesting to see where it settles in.

*Dallas and Houston have been playing some really solid ball over the past two weeks. I would expect Dallas to continue its upward trend, but I think Houston will hang around this area.

*I was really shocked to see New Jersey turn it around as much as they did. I thought they and Sacramento were defintely the two worst teams in the league. Perhaps not.

*Memphis is learning to live without Zach Randolph. They might be a team no one wants to face in the first round of the playoffs once he's back.

Rhyder

Philly looked very good against us. I don't think they are the better team, and I still expect their rating to lower. Interesting, nonetheless.

Hoodey

It shouldn't be a surprise. Philly is a quicker, smaller team that is more full-court oriented. As the season goes on, running teams without size down low tend to slow down. If they aren't already jogging teams by the playoffs they usually run out of gas in the second or third round. Additionally when you get into a playoff series v. say the Bulls, there is no pacing yourself. You're not thinking "okay, if we lose to Philly we can still have a 7-2 road trip, let's not kill ourselves." In a playoff series you have one opponent and you're either looking at one other opponent after or your couch. Then you get into the style of basketball game. The refs are going to let a team like the Bulls get more physical with the Sixers if they meet in the playoffs.

Contrast that with Oklahoma City, whose GM showed that you can get a physical force at center for Jeff Green IF that's what you're trying to do. As the season and playoffs go on, the Thunder will lean more on Kendrick Perkins to take up space and push people around, allowing mobility for penetrators on offense and rebounders on both ends. A guy like Perkins will also tend to weigh down opposing centers as a series goes on. Expect Oklahoma City to look just as good if not better than they do now when the playoffs rolls around.

As far as playoff threats go, I'd rank it this way in terms of who has what it takes to win late in the playoffs:

Oklahoma City - My favorite. They have Perkins down there to push people around, take up multiple bodies and also play some defense, rebound and get some easy buckets on his own. This will allow Collison and Durant to have mobility on the boards and will allow all players on OKC penetration lanes to the basket (or basically, exactly what he did for Boston in 08). Moreover, Westbrook and Durant can take more risks knowing that their team will control the paint.

Miami - Lebron and Wade are the best duo in the league and the best swing duo in the league since Jordan and Pippen. Anthony and Haslem do just enough goon work down low to control the paint just enough to allow Miami the freedom to thrive in the halfcourt.

Chicago - Massive drop off from Miami and OKC. Rose is great, but the Bulls are just too easily taken out of their game in a series because of their double Caldwell Jones style frontcourt. Rose, Deng and Boozer combine to shoot a very pedestrian FG% for the top 3 scorers on a team. Hamilton has yet to prove he'll even be reliably present. However, the Bulls do pack enough fundamental punch to ride Rose into the ECF.

Then after that you're talking about Denver, the LA Clippers if Griffin stops being a sissy and the Lakers if they can find a way to acquire depth and somebody who can play other than their big 3.

I have OKC dominating the west thoroughly, Miami in 6 at worst against Chicago and then OKC winning a brutal war v. Miami in 7.

If we trade for Dwight, Bynum or Gasol all of that changes. This team is good enough that if you add a serious frontcourt presence, we can beat anyone. Even with Dwight a series with OKC would be like Balboa v. Creed II.

Rhyder

As of games completed 2/18:

1 Chicago 9.0
2 Philadelphia 8.8
3 Miami 8.7
4 Oklahoma City 8.1
5 Boston 6.5
6 San Antonio 4.2
7 Denver 3.8
8 Dallas 3.7
9 LA Lakers 3.4
10 LA Clippers 3.3
11 Atlanta 3.2
12 Orlando 3.1
13 Portland 2.7
14 Golden State 1.4
15 Houston 1.1
16 Indiana 0.5
17 Minnesota -0.4
18 New York -0.9
19 Memphis -1.1
20 Phoenix -1.7
21 Utah -2.3
22 Milwaukee -2.6
23 Toronto -3.8
24 Cleveland -4.2
25 New Orleans -5.4
26 Washington -7.8
27 New Jersey -9.0
28 Detroit -9.4
29 Sacramento -9.9
30 Charlotte -13.6

Who's Hot
Sacramento +3.0
New York +2.9
Boston +1.9

Who's Not
Charlotte -3.0
Philadelphia -2.9
Denver -2.7

Rhyder

1 Chicago 9.2 0.2
2 Miami 8.8 0.1
3 Oklahoma City 7.9 -0.2
4 Philadelphia 6.1 -2.7
5 Boston 4.7 -1.8
6 Orlando 4.4 1.3
7 LA Lakers 4.0 0.6
8 San Antonio 3.7 -0.4
9 Dallas 3.4 -0.3
10 Portland 2.9 0.3
11 LA Clippers 2.3 -1.0
12 Atlanta 1.9 -1.3
13 Denver 1.8 -2.0
14 Indiana 1.5 1.0
15 Houston 0.9 -0.2
16 Golden State 0.0 -1.4
17 New York -0.1 0.9
18 Minnesota -0.1 0.3
19 Memphis -0.2 0.9
20 Phoenix -0.3 1.4
21 Utah -1.9 0.4
22 Toronto -2.5 1.3
23 Milwaukee -4.0 -1.5
24 Cleveland -4.5 -0.3
25 New Orleans -5.0 0.4
26 New Jersey -6.5 2.5
27 Washington -8.1 -0.3
28 Detroit -8.8 0.6
29 Sacramento -9.2 0.7
30 Charlotte -13.4 0.1

Who's Hot
New Jersey +2.5
Phoenix +1.4
Toronto +1.3
Orlando +1.3

Who's Not
Philadelphia -2.7
Denver -2.0
Boston -1.8

King Joseus

Always love this stuff.

__________________
Interested in joining the KVBL? PM me for information.

Rhyder

Thanks--Philly's free fall continues. They are still rated the best defensive team in the league by a small margin.

Defensive Rankings:
1. Philadelphia
2. Chicago
3. Boston
4. LA Lakers
5. Dallas
.
.
.
12. Miami

thebizkit69u

Talk about lying numbers, there is no way in hell that the heat are only the 12th best defense. They are by far the first or second best defense in the nba.

King Joseus

Based on....your eyes? They are surely capable of being a top three defense, but they haven't played up to it this season on a night to night basis. That's all that that ranking says.

__________________
Interested in joining the KVBL? PM me for information.

Rhyder

It's defensive efficiency during meaningful minutes during the regular season to date. It does not factor in coasting, which we all have seen Miami do.

Contrarily, offensive efficiency rankings for the regular season to date:
1. Miami
2. Oklahoma City
3. Orlando
4. San Antonio
5. Denver
6. Golden State
7. LA Clippers
8. Chicago