Rhyder

For those new to the board, I handicap basketball based on team efficiency that has been a work in progress since I began studying basketball metrics and predicitabilty in '96.

I do not start this analysis until all teams have played at least 10 games in order to have an adequate sample size. The system looks at all offensive and defensive possessions played up until that point. As such, the ratings are extremely volatile early in the year and begin settling in around the All-Star break.

Important to note, the following are not factored into the ratings themselves:
Strength of Schedule
Home vs. Away
Injuries
Garbage Time

Historically, teams start more bunched together earlier in the year and separate themselves as the regular season wears on:
9+ (2-4 teams) = legitimate championship contenders
4-9 (4-8 teams) = playoff locks for the championship
0-4 (6-8 teams) = fighting for playoff spots

I probably will not be doing this weekly, but I will try and get it out every couple of weeks. Enjoy!

Rhyder

As of games completed 11/26
1 Miami 7.6
2 Oklahoma City 7.3
3 San Antonio 6.4
4 LA Clippers 6.0
5 New York 6.0
6 Atlanta 5.1
7 LA Lakers 4.2
8 Memphis 3.9
9 Dallas 1.9
10 Brooklyn 1.7
11 Indiana 0.6
12 Golden State 0.5
13 Boston 0.4
14 Houston 0.1
15 Milwaukee 0.0
16 Denver -0.2
17 Utah -0.5
18 Chicago -1.2
19 Orlando -1.8
20 Minnesota -2.2
21 Philadelphia -2.3
22 Sacramento -3.4
23 Detroit -3.9
24 New Orleans -3.9
25 Portland -4.4
26 Toronto -4.5
27 Charlotte -4.7
28 Phoenix -5.1
29 Washington -6.9
30 Cleveland -8.6

Most Overrated
1. Memphis
2. Cleveland
3. Phoenix
4. Charlotte
5. Chicago

Most Underrated
1. Miami
2. Dallas
3. Atlanta

***The most overrated category means that if these teams continue to play as they have been, their rating is most likely to fall. Conversely, the most underated category means that if teams play as they have been, their rating is more likely to increase.

jnrjr79

Thanks, Rhyder. I always enjoy these.

King Joseus

Me too. Good stuff.

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Rhyder

Appreciate the kudos. I always enjoy taking a step back and looking at the league from a different perspective as well. A few takeaways from the rankings:

Miami, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and New York look deserving of their records.

Both LA teams seem like they should have a better record what they currently have. I would expect their winning % to go up in future games if everything holds constant.

Brooklyn, Memphis, Philadelphia, Charlotte and Phoenix do not look deserving of their records. I would expect to chalk their records up to "luck" or schedule and would expect their winning % to fall as the regular season continues.

This is particularly good news to us from the Charlotte pick standpoint as they rank #27 in the league despite the 7-6 record.

Rhyder

As of games completed 12/10:

1 Oklahoma City 11.7
2 San Antonio 10.7
3 LA Clippers 7.3
4 Miami 6.1
5 New York 5.9
6 Atlanta 4.5
7 Memphis 3.8
8 LA Lakers 3.5
9 Boston 2.6
10 Chicago 2.6
11 Golden State 1.8
12 Indiana 0.9
13 Utah 0.9
14 Brooklyn 0.5
15 Minnesota 0.4
16 Dallas 0.1
17 Denver -0.4
18 Detroit -0.7
19 Houston -1.9
20 Milwaukee -2.4
21 Orlando -2.6
22 Sacramento -3.1
23 Philadelphia -3.6
24 Portland -5.6
25 Phoenix -5.7
26 New Orleans -5.9
27 Toronto -6.8
28 Washington -7.7
29 Charlotte -7.7
30 Cleveland -9.4

Who's Hot - largest positive change in rating
Oklahoma City 4.4
San Antonio 4.3
Chicago 3.8

Who's Not - largest negative change in rating
Charlotte -3.0
Milwaukee -2.5
Toronto -2.3

Most Underrated - rating I expect to go up the most
Miami
Oklahoma City
Boston
San Antonio

Most Overrated - rating I expect to go down the most
Cleveland
Memphis
Brooklyn

Rhyder

Every team on the previous overrated list went down in rating with the exception of the Bulls, who went up in rating in addition to coming off the overrated list. This means their total efficiency went up.

Conversely, the only team on the previous underrated list that moved up is Oklahoma City.

Clippers seem on the verge of being one of the elite teams in the league. Can't say the same for New York, Memphis, Lakers, Boston, or Chicago to date. Of course injuries are a factor here as well.

Good Hope

Sounds about right. Poor Bulls. Derrick will be back.

__________________
"Now faith is being sure of what we hope for and certain of what we do not see." Heb. 11:1

There are better things to hope in than the Bulls, but its fun to try, anyway.

yodurk

Not sure where else to put this...maybe an interesting comparison to Rhyder's ratings:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

Bulls amazingly just cracked the top 10 in ranking now that the schedule is getting harder and we're sustaining the same win percentage so far. Only 1 slot behind Miami.

Good Hope

It is kind of amazing.

Go Bulls!

__________________
"Now faith is being sure of what we hope for and certain of what we do not see." Heb. 11:1

There are better things to hope in than the Bulls, but its fun to try, anyway.

Rhyder

As of games completed 12/31:

1 LA Clippers 9.9
2 San Antonio 9.8
3 Miami 9.1
4 Oklahoma City 9.0
5 New York 3.8
6 LA Lakers 3.0
7 Indiana 3.0
8 Golden State 2.9
9 Atlanta 2.9
10 Denver 2.3
11 Houston 2.0
12 Memphis 1.9
13 Chicago 0.7
14 Boston 0.3
15 Orlando 0.3
16 Brooklyn -1.1
17 Minnesota -1.1
18 Milwaukee -1.2
19 Dallas -1.6
20 Utah -1.7
21 Detroit -1.7
22 Philadelphia -2.6
23 Portland -3.0
24 Phoenix -4.3
25 Toronto -4.5
26 Sacramento -5.4
27 New Orleans -5.7
28 Cleveland -8.1
29 Washington -8.2
30 Charlotte -10.3

Who's Hot - largest positive change in rating
Houston 3.9
Miami 3.0
Orlando 2.9

Who's Not - largest negative change in rating
Oklahoma City -2.7
Utah -2.6
Charlotte -2.6

Most Underrated - rating I expect to go up the most
Miami
Dallas
San Antonio

Most Overrated - rating I expect to go down the most
Memphis
Cleveland
Minnesota

Rhyder

As of games completed 2/4:
1 San Antonio 9.9
2 Oklahoma City 8.8
3 Miami 8.0
4 LA Clippers 7.1
5 Denver 3.0
6 Atlanta 2.4
7 Golden State 2.3
8 LA Lakers 2.3
9 New York 2.1
10 Indiana 2.0
11 Chicago 1.8
12 Houston 1.7
13 Memphis 0.9
14 Detroit -0.3
15 Boston -0.5
16 Brooklyn -0.6
17 Milwaukee -1.0
18 Dallas -1.3
19 Orlando -1.4
20 Utah -1.5
21 Toronto -1.8
22 Portland -2.2
23 Philadelphia -3.1
24 New Orleans -3.7
25 Washington -4.4
26 Phoenix -4.4
27 Minnesota -4.5
28 Sacramento -5.8
29 Cleveland -7.3
30 Charlotte -9.3


Who's Hot - largest positive change in rating
Washington 3.9
Toronto 2.8
New Orleans 2.0

Who's Not - largest negative change in rating
Minnesota -3.4
LA Clippers -2.8
New York -1.8

Most Underrated - rating I expect to go up the most
Miami
Orlando

Most Overrated - rating I expect to go down the most
Memphis
Minnesota
Cleveland
New York

Good Hope

Jeez. Is San Antonio really that good? That's more unbelievable than what the Bulls are doing!

__________________
"Now faith is being sure of what we hope for and certain of what we do not see." Heb. 11:1

There are better things to hope in than the Bulls, but its fun to try, anyway.

King Joseus

Never doubt Timmy, Pop and Co.

__________________
Interested in joining the KVBL? PM me for information.

Rhyder

To me, the most exciting news is seeing who is in the 30th slot. I don't see Charlotte as an attractive FA destination, so they really are going to have to score in the draft to make major improvements for their pick to be low by the time we inherit it.