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You can run, but...
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Age: 27
Posts: 37,070
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2005-06 Season (on realignment)
This should be the last group of conference shifts for at least 5-10 years after this whole conference re-shuffling happens in the next two months. Mind you some of these confrerences will play with all these members next year most likely, because no one wants to have lame duck teams and players in their conference.
The Big East
EAST Division
Providence, Connecticut, St. John's, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Villanova, Georgetown, South Florida
WEST Division
Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Louisville, DePaul, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Now after looking at the size of this conference, this will most likely blow up in the Big East faces. I hope they don't expect 10 bids to the NCAA tournament with a conference this bid. Half the conference coaches will be fired per year. This is a damn tough basketball conference. Can you imagine if only the top 6 in each division make the conf. tourney? There will be hell to pay.
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Conference USA
East Division
Central Florida, Marshall, Memphis, UAB, Southern Miss, East Carolina
West Division
Tulsa, Tulane, Houston, TCU, Rice, SMU
This conference is definitely in flux, but they can finally fix something. Now I know people are gonna say they lost basketball, but I think that is for the time being only. The conference was too fragmented. Some of the programs had different agendas (eh hem DePaul cough cough), and it is good they are no longer in the league anymore.
This is no longer a major conference but it is a top mid-major league for basketball. It can rise to major status however, as Houston, TCU, SMU, UAB and Marshall are putting in the money to raise their programs back up. All have the resources to at least be competitive in basketball. Tulsa and Memphis are already there. And Rice and Southern Miss will have competitive teams this year.
As for football, this conference should perform well with more traditional rivalries and better recruiting base.
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Atlantic 10
East Division
UMass, Saint Joseph's, Fordham, LaSalle, Temple, Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
West Division
Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Charlotte, Richmond, Duquesne, George Washington
Other than the ACC, I think the A-10 makes out the best in all of this. Though a 14 team conference hasn't worked in the past for most, this could work for them because a) you need a couple of bottom feeders (Fordham, Bonnies, Duquesne) b) the additions of the 49ers and Billikens, strengthens the middle and top of the conference. With these two programs the A-10 could be looking at five bids from this conference annually.
As the A-10 continues with this group they could probably get 7 bids (from time to time) depending on how their programs do in their OOC schedules. With no performance based clauses, the deadweight could be cut in a couple of years and the conference could look even stronger. Who would have guessed Linda Bruno getting something right?
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Mountain West
This conference doesn't need to make any moves but with the WAC implosion imminent don't be surprised if you see the MWC grab Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State and Hawaii, which would give them a 12 team conference and they would now have enough conference teams for a 16 team basketball schedule and a conf. championship football game.
East Division
Utah, BYU, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico
West Division
Hawaii, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, UNLV, Nevada
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Which brings us to the WAC. If the above scenario with the Mountain West doesn't happen (I think it will), expect the WAC to steal programs from the Sun Belt Conf.
Under the above scenario the only teams left would be San Jose State, Louisiana Tech and UTEP. SJSU will be dissolved for football or be downgraded to a lower level of sports. They just don't have the money, which leaves only two teams. So let's say that those 4 teams stay in the conference. They will most likely re-divert Utah State and Idaho from joining the Sun Belt and then pluck New Mexico State and North Texas.
Their new conference would include 10 teams.
NMSU, North Texas, UTEP, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State, Nevada, Utah State, Idaho, Louisiana Tech.
Now after seeing that list, do you see why it makes absolutely no sense to save the WAC. The WAC is done for and they are basically leaving UTEP and Louisiana Tech to most likely take their butts back to the Sun Belt. What a revolting development for those programs, huh? They were the ones who ditched the Sun Belt for the WAC a few years ago, but this is now their best move to beg to be let back in the Sun Belt.
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The final conference on my list. I am a fan of the A-Sun conference so I will do their new conference alignment. This conference is losing Troy State to the Sun Belt (which might have 16 members also when this realignment stuff is said and done with) and Central Florida (either to the MAC or the C-USA, most likely the C-USA). However they have added E. Tennesee State and the conference will be more balanced in that it spreads from Tennesee to North Carolina to Georgia to Florida. Which will create less of a burden on the athletic budget of all the programs and they will be able to crown a legit conference champ every year with a balanced schedule.
The New A-Sun
East Tennessee State, Limpscomb, Belmont, Campbell, Garner-Webb, Jacksonville, Stetson, Florida Atlantic, Georgia State, Mercer
They will be able to play an 18 game schedue, playing everyone twice and at least this conference will finally have some damn stability. In the last 10 years they have lost and added Troy State, College of Charleston, Limpscomb, Garner Webb, Belmont, Samford, Jacksonville State... you get the picture. Now they have a league that is close in proximity and can at least try to grow some tradition. Remember this is the conference that used to be named the Trans America Athletic Conference (trans is right for the movement of these programs).
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What does this all mean? This mean that college sports is big business and nothing more. Everyone wants to make money. My expectations are for the Big East to implode sometime in the future, but if everyone who is participating in this conference realignment makes huge exit fees unless they are kicked out for performance clauses (see A-10), then the Big East will be left to implode on it's own. Which goes to shows that having an intelligent conference commissioner is very important.
Oh and one more thing with the loss of the WAC, the NCAA tournament should go back to the field of 64, with only 30 conferences and 34 conference bids. At least it better, but I have a feeling they might make 4 more at large bids (make the smaller conferences have 4 play-in games in a field of 68) to create more berths for the tourney. At least we may get stronger 16 seeds if that happened.
Comments?
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My favorite NBA players: Deron Williams * Kobe Bryant * Carmelo Anthony * Ben Gordon * Joe Johnson * Kevin Martin * Tim Duncan * Kyle Lowry * Thad Young * Amare Stoudemire * Dwight Howard * Josh Smith * Brandon Roy * LaMarcus Aldridge * Rudy Gay * Al Horford * Brandan Wright * Craig Smith * Renaldo Balkman * Wilson Chandler
2008-09 Favorite Rookies: Jerryd Bayless (POR), Roy Hibbert (IND), Greg Oden (POR), Chris Douglas-Roberts (NJN), Joe Alexander (MIL), Patrick Ewing, Jr. (NYK)
College Basketball: "Where 7-Foot Bigs Foul Out Happen"
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2005-06 Season (on realignment)
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