JuniorNoboa

I have heard a few people say that there are not that many strong teams this year, and it struck me as odd. I never remember the top 15 teams in the country having so few losses. Perhaps there are some close games, but there always are. Actually, I think the top teams this year are better then normal:

So I wondered if I was inaccurate or does history actually show that this group is better:

Let's tart with some of the limitations of my results:
1. I used the top 16 RPI schools since 99 as a proxy for the top 16 seeds. I didn't have time or enough interest, to do the calculations for the exact 16 teams.
2. No consideration of SOS, although I suspect it balances out.
3. I did sum top 50 records, but the "inbreeding" factor of top 16 teams playing each other may have skewed results so they may be unreliable.... of couse I could only look at games vs 17-50, but I don't have time right now (Might later).... anyway, the 2008 top 16 clearly has the best winning percentage against top 50 teams right now.

So here are the two things I looked at:
1. # of Losses
2. Winning % vs 51-100.
3. (I might try to look at winning % vs 17-50, but that is time I do not have)


# of Losses Entering the Tounrament by top 16 RPI temas.
1. 2008 - 76 (Currently 68, 76 is porjected)
2. 2005 - 78
3. 2004 - 82
4. 2006 - 90
5. 2003 - 92
6. 2002 - 95
7. 2000 - 99
8. 1999 - 100
9. 2001 - 105
2007 - 105

Winning % vs 51-100 (shows dominance of top teams... when you don't have time to look at 17-50)

1. 2004 97-9
2. 1999 127-16
3. 2008 84-11
4. 2001 83-11
5. 2000 93-15
6. 2002 97-16
7. 2005 121-20
8. 2003 109-21
9. 2006 91-20
10. 2007 101-25


I think its stands up as one of the best of the last decade (but certainly there are limitations). they are certainly MUCH, MUCH stronger then the top 4 seeds from last year.

Conclusion - Don't pick many upsets to the sweet 16.

Does anyone have historical brackets.... I lost the site that once had it. I could see if there is any actual correlation.

HKF

The ACC and Big 12 are not great leagues this year. People keep talking about the RPI, but those leagues were mediocre and had parity because there were only two great teams (Oklahoma was hurt by injuries).

__________________
My favorite NBA players: Kobe Bryant * Carmelo Anthony * Ben Gordon * Deron Williams * Joe Johnson * Kevin Martin * Tim Duncan * Kyle Lowry * Thad Young * Amare Stoudemire * Dwight Howard * Josh Smith * Brandon Roy * LaMarcus Aldridge * Rudy Gay * Al Horford * Brandan Wright * Craig Smith * Renaldo Balkman

2008-09 Favorite Rookies: Jerryd Bayless (POR), Roy Hibbert (IND), Greg Oden (POR), Jamont Gordon (undrafted), Chris Douglas-Roberts (NJN), Joe Alexander (MIL), Patrick Ewing, Jr. (SAC)

College Basketball: "Where 7-Foot Bigs Foul Out Happen"

TM

Add to that the Big 10... Add to that the SEC...

It's because all the good players are going pro... Oh wait, we can't really use that one anymore either... Can you imagine the NCAA this year without Michael Beaseley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, etc. Gosh, we'd have to hear even towards Tyler Hansbrough.