Nimreitz

Bit of a dilemma for me in my keeper league. I can keep MJD for my first round pick which is #4; the guy with the #1 pick will either keep CJ2K for his pick, or just redraft him. I was thinking about dropping MJD and rolling the dice; I did some extrapolation about who would get kept and at what cost and these are the best players who aren't kept:

MJD, Richardson, McFadden, Ryan Matthews

I have to decide my keepers by this weekend, unfortunately. The draft on the 26th. Before the Richardson and Matthews injuries I was sure I'd get a good player no matter what. But with the uncertainty around Richardson and Matthews now I'm thinking that keeping Jones-Drew might just be the prudent move. What do you guys think? I will also be keeping Roddy White (free 2nd Rounders) and Jamal Charles (4th... because he was dropped). If I dropped MJD I'd probably keep Eli for a 6th Rounder which I think is good value.

Pimped Out

Personally, MJD scares me every year because I can't believe his knees are holding up, or that with his run style, he's body isnt breaking down in general. Clearly he proved me wrong last year, but it still scares me.

Do you think #2 or #3 will keep or pick? If you feel certain that at least 1 of MJD, Ryan Matthews, or Chris Johnson will be there when you pick, I think keeping Eli in the 6th would be the smarter move.

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BlakeJesus

Unless you're absolutely sold on Richardson that's not a move I would make. Ryan Matthews is made of glass, I wouldn't touch him with a high round pick. McFadden has never played a full season, so there's no reason to believe he will going forward.

So like I said, if you think Richardson is going to be a stud than make the move. His minor injuries right now aren't a big deal, especially from a keeper viewpoint. But if you have any doubt at all, hold onto MJD.

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scdn

You could keep MJD and draft Rashad Jennings later in the draft as insurance.

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Nimreitz

That's probably the smart move. I'm already going to have to draft Peyton Hillis too.

2 and 3 will definitely pick. CJ2K will either be kept by the guy with the #1 pick, or dropped and redrafted #1 because he would be the best player available. As I said, those 4 guys will be available for the 3 spots. Richardson's injuries are worrisome, so even take him out. Should I sacrifice MJD and maybe get him back, or maybe get McFadden or Mathews. The other possibility is that some idiot owner doesn't send his keepers in on time and there's another elite back on the board. I'm completely sold on McFadden, and MJD is who I would have anyway. At this point I'm leaning toward dropping MJD with the worst case scenario either getting him back, or getting Matthews who even with his injury might be in better shape than MJD without any training camp. The best case scenario is that a couple stupid owners forget to turn in their keepers, one of the picks ahead of me takes MJD, and I walk away with Forte.