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Old 08-27-2012, 04:19 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Never know, Rice may have a down year with nagging injuries because of usage. I would still draft Rice top 5. But it could happen.
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Old 08-27-2012, 04:19 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Alright here are my results from last night in my 14 team league:

QB- Aaron Rodgers
WR- Dwyane Bowe
WR- Miles Austin
RB- Adrian Peterson
RB- Trent Richardson
FLEX- Doug Martin
TE- Coby Fleener
K- Nate Kaeding
DEF- San Francisco
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Old 08-27-2012, 04:20 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

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Originally Posted by scdn View Post
Never know, Rice may have a down year with nagging injuries because of usage. I would still draft Rice top 5. But it could happen.
Rice is superman.




If it happens, I will kill you.
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Old 08-27-2012, 04:24 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Pretty good for a 14 team league. Need a lot to fall into place, but can't really lack weaknesses in that size of league.
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Old 08-27-2012, 04:27 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knick Killer View Post
Alright here are my results from last night in my 14 team league:

QB- Aaron Rodgers
WR- Dwyane Bowe
WR- Miles Austin
RB- Adrian Peterson
RB- Trent Richardson
FLEX- Doug Martin
TE- Coby Fleener
K- Nate Kaeding
DEF- San Francisco
Rodgers is obviously a stud so that's an immediate advantage you'll have.

14 teams thins things out a bit but given the incredible depth this year at WR I still think Bowe/Austin might be in the bottom half of receiver combos in your league, mostly because Miles Austin's hamstrings are acting up again and that scares me. I like Bowe.

RB could be a strength for you but I feel like you've rolled the dice on all three guys... Doug Martin has been getting great reviews and should be featured but he's still a rookie. AP is such a question mark due to his health.... did you take him in the 2nd? Trent Richardson is another rookie (rookie RBs don't typically put up top tier fantasy #'s) with health issues.

San Fran and Keading are solid picks.

Overall I think your team is boom or bust... you've got potential to put up a ton of points for a 14 team league, but the wheels could fall off if the injury concerns break the wrong way for you.
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Old 08-27-2012, 04:47 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Running back is important, but don't reach for them just because you think you need to take them. Aaron Rodgers is going to score a lot of points. The reason there is such crazy RB scarcity this year is because it's unpredictable. Running backs are going to score points, it's just very unclear which ones. Even the elite guys like Foster, Rice, and McCoy are far far more likely to destroy your season with injury than a QB is.

After thinking I needed to get a ton of running backs early this year, I had a draft last night where I had the 8th pick and went QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/WR/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/TE/DEF/K. Don't take running backs early just because you are afraid to not have them, there are always guys available late who will have great seasons, you just have to take the shotgun approach to find them. Half of the first and second round running backs are usually hurt by the playoffs anyway.
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Old 08-27-2012, 04:52 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

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Rodgers is obviously a stud so that's an immediate advantage you'll have.

14 teams thins things out a bit but given the incredible depth this year at WR I still think Bowe/Austin might be in the bottom half of receiver combos in your league, mostly because Miles Austin's hamstrings are acting up again and that scares me. I like Bowe.

RB could be a strength for you but I feel like you've rolled the dice on all three guys... Doug Martin has been getting great reviews and should be featured but he's still a rookie. AP is such a question mark due to his health.... did you take him in the 2nd? Trent Richardson is another rookie (rookie RBs don't typically put up top tier fantasy #'s) with health issues.

San Fran and Keading are solid picks.

Overall I think your team is boom or bust... you've got potential to put up a ton of points for a 14 team league, but the wheels could fall off if the injury concerns break the wrong way for you.
That pretty much sums it up. I was smart and took Toby Gerhart in case AP doesn't pan out but overall you're right. I think I will either kick everyones ass, or the wheels will fall off half way through the season and I won't even crack the top 3.
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Old 08-27-2012, 09:27 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

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Originally Posted by Mrs. Thang View Post
Running back is important, but don't reach for them just because you think you need to take them. Aaron Rodgers is going to score a lot of points. The reason there is such crazy RB scarcity this year is because it's unpredictable. Running backs are going to score points, it's just very unclear which ones. Even the elite guys like Foster, Rice, and McCoy are far far more likely to destroy your season with injury than a QB is.

After thinking I needed to get a ton of running backs early this year, I had a draft last night where I had the 8th pick and went QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/WR/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/TE/DEF/K. Don't take running backs early just because you are afraid to not have them, there are always guys available late who will have great seasons, you just have to take the shotgun approach to find them. Half of the first and second round running backs are usually hurt by the playoffs anyway.
That's stupid. There's a deep second tier of RBs, but after that you're rolling the dice on Helu. Meanwhile WRs are the deepest position and the easiest position to find a one week spot starter. You better get really ****ing lucky with a waiver wire player or you are screwed.

Not to mention WRs are the most inconsistent players week to week, so you are more likely to have them on the bench during their big weeks, especially if you have a huge stable of similarguys
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Old 08-27-2012, 09:52 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knick Killer View Post
Alright here are my results from last night in my 14 team league:

QB- Aaron Rodgers
WR- Dwyane Bowe
WR- Miles Austin
RB- Adrian Peterson
RB- Trent Richardson
FLEX- Doug Martin
TE- Coby Fleener
K- Nate Kaeding
DEF- San Francisco
You have a playoff ready team if Rodgers and Peterson stay healthy and one of Trent or Doug Martin work out.

3 RB is an absolute must in a 14-team league and grabbing a fourth is of tremendous value too as teams will have firesales on their WR trying to fill a RB slot with no one available. All the handcuffs and even some of the 3rd RBs get selected in 14-team leagues. I was able to trade Shonn Greene last year for Steve Smith, because the top record team didn't have a second RB once McFadden went down.

That said, you are going to want to hit the waiver wire hard for WR and TE upgrades early in the season. You could lose a lot of close games early on in the season. If you hit on all three RB, trade your middle guy for a tier 2 WR to enter the playoffs. Particularly if it's a PPR league, you can cover the Flex with your WR3 and expect a 5-7 point boost to your weekly average.

You could have:
QB Rodgers
RB Peterson
RB Doug Martin
WR Roddy White
WR Waiver Wire pickup
FLEX Dwyane Bowe
TE Waiver Wire pickup
DEF San Fran
K Nate Kaeding

That would dominate in the playoffs unless someone else scored on a boom or bust trade.
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Old 12-31-2012, 09:32 AM   #25 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

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Originally Posted by Mrs. Thang View Post
Running back is important, but don't reach for them just because you think you need to take them. Aaron Rodgers is going to score a lot of points. The reason there is such crazy RB scarcity this year is because it's unpredictable. Running backs are going to score points, it's just very unclear which ones. Even the elite guys like Foster, Rice, and McCoy are far far more likely to destroy your season with injury than a QB is.

After thinking I needed to get a ton of running backs early this year, I had a draft last night where I had the 8th pick and went QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/WR/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/RB/TE/DEF/K. Don't take running backs early just because you are afraid to not have them, there are always guys available late who will have great seasons, you just have to take the shotgun approach to find them. Half of the first and second round running backs are usually hurt by the playoffs anyway.
So I won $500 with this team. My running back position sucked all year but it never mattered because I had a reliable QB (Brees) and WR's (Welker,Julio Jones,V. Jackson, Maclin). Running back was extra screwed because my 2nd rounder was MJD who barely played. I went the whole season with Stevan Ridley (from the late round shotgun) and the backup of the week in Jacksonville at RB.

Running backs are overrated every year and they will be overrated again next year. They would be worth first round picks if you could predict who is going to have the best season, but you can't. The bust potential is too big with all of them.
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:36 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

I wouldn't say Julio Jones was reliable this year. It was a roll of the dice which week he would put up stats. Some WR's could be found shotgun style too. I'm sure people would have been fine most of the season with James Jones, Cecil Shorts, Michael Crabtree. People who drafted Jordy Nelson, Mike Wallace, and Hakeem Nicks higher would have busted.
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Old 12-31-2012, 04:49 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Top RBs in my league:

1) Peterson
2) Martin
3) Foster
4) Lynch
5) Morris
6) Rice
7) Spiller
8) Charles
9) Richardson
10) Gore

Those are the #1s in my league. How many of those guys are mid-tier like Roy Helu's preseason ranking? Spiller. That's it. Maybe Martin, but maybe not. Morris was a FA pickup that anyone could have got. The rest of the guys were expected to be good, and not 5th round dudes. The next 10?

11) Ridley
12) Forte
13) Johnson
14) Bush
15) Greene
16) Jackson
17) Turner
18) Bradshaw
19) Green-Ellis
20) Leshoure

Again, you will find that most of these guys were projected to be high picks with the exception of Greene, Law Firm, and LeShoure (a late round pick or FA like Morris that anyone could have had). There is essentially a MASSIVE dropoff after these guys, which means everyone else is a spot play.

Now the top QBs:

1) Brees
2) Rodgers
3) Brady
4) Cam
5) RG3
6) Manning
7) Ryan
8) Romo
9) Luck
10) Wilson

You will find that there isn't a particularly large dropoff between Ryan/Luck/Wilson and Brady/Newton. QBs are more reliable, but there is better certain value also. I don't KNOW Morris or Martin will have good years, but I'm pretty sure Ryan will. So bump him below the RBs.

Now the WRs:

1) Johnson
2) Marshall
3) Dez
4) Green
5) Thomas
6) Jackson
7) Decker
8) Johnson
9) Jones
10) White

Mostly top guys, but also clear value and guys who people knew would probably be good like Decker, Thomas, and maybe Jackson.

The next 10 illustrates how much of a crapshoot WRs can be and how easy they can be to find:

11) Colston
12) Welker
13) Cruz
14) Crabtree
15) Wayne
16) James Jones
17) M. Williams
18) Cobb
19) S. Smith
20) Moore

And the dropoff isn't as steep at this position either.

Last edited by Nimreitz; 12-31-2012 at 05:01 PM.
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Old 12-31-2012, 05:15 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

Brees was the #1 player this year in total points, not sure what else you want from him.

He was also commonly ranked behind guys like McFadden and Chris Johnson at the start of the year which to me seemed insane. My whole point is every year people are willing to accept insane amounts of risk to try to get a guy with good positional value when there are much safer bets at other positions. People think WR is an easy position to fill because there is a large middle class, but it's actually rare that you have waiver wire guys turn in a top 10 season at WR while it happens every year with RB's.
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Old 12-31-2012, 05:56 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

But everyone is always going for those waiver wire guys. You can't count on landing a top waiver wire RB. You have to assume that someone else will get the best one.
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Old 01-01-2013, 09:10 AM   #30 (permalink)
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Re: Foster, Rice, McCoy...then who?

This year had a bunch of waiver wire type WR's. Guys like James Jones, Cecil Shorts, Michael Crabtree might have been at some point because of his low ceiing perception, TY Hilton, Sidney Rice, Mike Williams, Danario Alexander, etc. Some outperforming guys like Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Desean Jackson, Greg Little (popular sleeper pre-season), etc.

Happens at every position.
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