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**Knick_Killer31** · 04-19-2007, 08:52 PM

Okay it's all been explained before but how about now with the season over. Is the pick Top-3 or Top-10 protected or what? Can anyone explain? *cough* Pacers_Fan *cough*

crazyfan · 04-19-2007, 08:59 PM

Top 10 protected in 2007. Top 8 protected in 2008. Top 5 protected in 2009 and unprotected in 2010

Pacers Fan · 04-20-2007, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyfan

Top 10 protected in 2007. Top 8 protected in 2008. Top 5 protected in 2009 and unprotected in 2010

Correct. We're actually tied with Philadelphia now for the #11 spot in the lottery since they won and we lost. 11 gets 8 combinations in the draft, and 12 gets 7 combinations. Since the average isn't an integer, we'll have a coin flip with Philly to determine who gets 7 and who gets 8, basically the #11 or #12 spot. The lottery only determines the top 3 picks, so we either fall into the top 3, or we finish between 11 and 14, 12 and 14 if we move back after the coin flip.

#11 has a .8% chance at #1, .9% chance at #2, and 1.2% chance at #3, so, a 2.9% chance of moving up. It has a 6.3% chance of moving back a spot, and .1% chance of moving back two spots.
#12 has a .7% chance at #1, .8% chance at #2, and 1% chance at #3, so, a 2.5% chance of moving up. It has a 3.9% chance of moving back to #13.

#11 has a 90.8% chance of staying.
#12 has a 93.5% chance of staying.

Basically, we're quite screwed. We have a better chance of moving back than we do of moving up and getting our pick.

Pacers Fan · 04-20-2007, 01:41 PM

Quote:

A league spokesman said Tuesday they will cut open a basketball, place two ping-pong balls inside -- one for each team -- close the ball, shake it up and NBA executive Stu Jackson will pull one out.

The winner will earn the 11th slot in the lottery. The loser will get the 12th slot.

The difference? Not much. The 11th slot will receive eight combinations out of 1,000 and has a 0.80 percent chance of winning the top pick in the lottery, 0.95 for the second and 1.15 for the third. The 12th slot will receive seven combinations. Its odds are 0.70, 0.83 and 1.01.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dl...TS04/704190541

Pacers Fan · 04-20-2007, 02:15 PM

Well, we won the tiebreaker with Philly, so we're currently sitting at #11!

Quote:

Which is to say their ball was drawn before Philadelphia's in the NBA Draft tie-breaker session conducted by league Vice President Stu Jackson. The Pacers thus hold the 11th draft position, while the Sixers, who also finished 35-47, are 12th.

In the big picture, here's what it means: instead of a 2.5 percent chance (as the No. 12 team) of winding up with one of the top three picks in the June 28 NBA Draft, they now have a 2.9 percent chance as the No. 11 team. Not exactly cause for a parade down Pennsylvania Street, but a win nonetheless.

Of course, this also means they have a 97.1 percent chance of having no first-round pick, because it would otherwise wind up in Atlanta to complete the Harrington trade. Because of the way the lottery is conducted – on May 22, they'll draw only for the top three picks, with the rest of the teams slotting behind in inverse order of won-lost record – the Pacers will either wind up with one of the top three picks or none at all.

http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/web_070420.html

**Knick_Killer31** · 04-21-2007, 12:27 PM

So we have a pick?

Pacers Fan · 04-21-2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knick_Killer31

So we have a pick?

No, we have #11 right now, and if that stays, it goes to Atlanta. We have to finish in the top 10, which means top 3. We have a 97.1% chance of losing the pick, since we have a 2.9% chance of finishing somewhere in the top 3.

Jermaniac Fan · 04-22-2007, 11:14 AM

This year's draft class is great! It would be very sad if pacers didn't have a pick.

**Knick_Killer31** · 04-22-2007, 03:10 PM

The year we need a pick the most...and we dont even got one.

jreywind · 04-27-2007, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knick_Killer31

The year we need a pick the most...and we dont even got one.

Which is why I was in favor of tanking the season a few weeks before it was over. The current lottery system is ridiculous. I like a slight weight, but those numbers need to be tweaked. The nba system breeds mediocrity in my opinion.

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