Wade County

Bottom line is, the Heat vs Lakers matchups are going to be very, very interesting.

Honestly, we've played the Lakers pretty well over the past few years, and Bynum is a more dangerous offensive threat than Howard IMO. Defensively the Lakers are much improved though - as Dwight is best paint protector in the game.

The one that concerns me is Nash. We really don't have an answer for him - and with these kind of weapons at his disposal, and the expected floor spacing he'll get....he's gonna be deadly.

Will be interesting to see how this Lakers team meshes their talents. It did take us a while to get to the point where everyone knew their role.

__________________

Jace

They have the benefit of already having their roles more clearly laid out.

I'm not going to pull an ESPN and compare Lin to Nash, but our PGs can play great D when motivated. Cole always does, Chalmers has to be locked in and not gambling. Nash has the know-how to squirm throw different defensive looks, so it'll be tricky. One thing that comforts me is what seems like a movement in the league toward advantages for perimeter-based attacks. Obviously having two all-world bigs can make that moot.

Surely there are thousands of people all over the internet making all sorts of definitive statements, but the truth is we really can't know until we see them healthily match up over a 7 game series. That's far from a guarantee, so we may never know.

__________________
Jace's soundcloud

Jace

Just occurred to me, the Lakers may have a hidden advantage in lieu of Dwight likely missing the start of the season. Yes, he'll miss training camp, and that won't be good. But they'll get to integrate Nash and run similar offense with Jordan Hill starting while Dwight sits and sees how he can fit in. Starting with all the new stuff right away might be dizzying. Its a tad easier to get everyone on the same page at the same time one at a time, not that either of them are difficult teammates to play off of.

__________________
Jace's soundcloud

Adam

Just curious, but what do you guys expect out of Nash this year? If you recall, I was strongly against Miami getting Nash. I also said back during the All-Star game that he didn't deserve to make it and I think he's overrated at the moment. Of course now that he plays for LA I can't share these opinions anymore, otherwise I will be accused of being afraid, even though I haven't changed my mind. But I really would not be shocked to see him not even a top 10 PG next year.

__________________

R-Star

__________________

Jace

I feel like he's lost a little bit, of course, but based on his numbers last year its hard for me to not look at him as one of the best in the league still.

__________________
Jace's soundcloud

e-monk

what's funny is that there's not a similar thread in the Lakers forums - wonder why that is...

Jace

If you're trying to make an inference on Heat fans based off of a thread started by a guy who just joined the fanbase because Ray Allen signed here this offseason...I don't know what to tell you.

Besides, they have a lot more to talk about. We've been sitting around waiting for something to happen, and lo and behold, we have a new contender.

__________________
Jace's soundcloud

Adam

You also don't have a recent championship thread. Maybe there's some correlation.

__________________

e-monk

another response I find interesting, this reactionary defensive 'but we're champions' and 'we're not scared' stuff - intriguing behavior from many (and not just one) in the fan base

Adam

LOL. If I give my thoughts on Dwight Howard, I'm scared. If I give my thoughts on the Lakers, I'm defensive. First of all, I'm not a player on the team. I don't get scared, so this message board idea that I feel fear over one particular team is hilarious. Is your arrogance that great that you presume you're the first contender in the past two years Miami has had to deal with? All that aside, we're discussing the Lakers because they're a big topic and they are a contender. Read any more into that and it's nothing more than your own vanity and arrogance.

__________________

e-monk

look it's not like I'm coming right out and calling Heat fans a bunch of band wagon jumping, fan boy, johnny-come-lately's or anything

Wade2Bosh

You dont think there were Lebron/Heat Lakers threads in the Lakers forum here, or on bigger Lakers forums, after Lebron's decision, the off season after they won the championship?

__________________

Jace

Sorry to interrupt this discussion with a mega-post...

But, a volatile mixture of time and curiosity led me to look at and compare the PER's of each team's "Big 4" (I included Ray to match 4 with 4, despite his much lower production than everyone else). Figured I'd post the results if anyone was interested.

(Disclaimer: This means nothing. At least when it pertains to future matchups between the two teams. PER is a great composite stat and widely respected, but I realize no stat can tell the full story, accurately predict future success, or predict the interplay that will occur when players combine their talents. This is far from an exact science and very superficial analysis. That said, during the doldrums of summer, I was intrigued by seeing how these new units compared to each other and ranked amongst themselves and the league using the only remotely effective stat I know. All for fun.)

I used the last 4 seasons to 1) have 2 years each of pre-Decision and post-Decision Heat players, 2) use as big a recent sample size as possible to account for unique circumstances within each season & 3) not get too close to the older players' primes (Nash, Allen, Bryant, Pau). Just to make sure everyone knows, league average PER = 15. If you want to learn more about it, read here. Full rankings here.


PER Rankings 2011-12 Season

1) LeBron James 30.8 (1st in NBA) 2011: 27.34 (1st) 2010: 31.19 (1st) 2009: 31.76 (1st) AVG: 30.27 (1st of 8)

2) Dwyane Wade 26.37 (3rd) 2011: 25.65 (3rd) 2010: 28.1 (2nd) 2009: 30.46 (2nd) AVG: 27.65 (2nd of 8)

3) Dwight Howard 24.29 (6th) 2011: 26.13 (2nd) 2010: 24.07 (6th) 2009: 25.44 (4th) AVG: 24.98 (3rd of 8)

4) Kobe Bryant 21.95 (17th) 2011: 23.94 (5th) 2010: 21.95 (15th) 2009: 24.46 (6th) AVG: 23.08 (4th of 8)

5) Pau Gasol 20.51 (32nd) 2011: 23.33 (11th) 2010: 22.97 (10th) 2009: 22.31 (14th) AVG: 22.28 (5th of 8)

6) Steve Nash 20.29 (36th) 2011: 20.81 (22nd) 2010: 21.67 (16th) 2009: 19.55 (26th) AVG: 20.58 (7th of 8)

7) Chris Bosh 18.94 (48th) 2011: 19.44 (33rd) 2010: 25.11 (4th) 2009: 22.19 (15th) AVG: 21.42 (6th of 8)

8) Ray Allen 14.83 (144th) 2011: 16.42 (86th) 2010: 15.22 (121st) 2009: 17.34 (64th) AVG: 15.95 (8th of 8)


Look at that list. All 8 of those guys were once franchise cornerstones; the player commentators spent half the broadcast talking about whenever their teams made it on nat'l TV. Five top-10 PERs from 2010, with Kobe (though 5th the next season), Nash, and Allen outside of that bubble. Twelve top-5 PERs between 5 players in the 4 seasons. How many ASGs do you have to go back for that to represent 1/3rd of the available spots? (Wow, it appears they never did. Somehow, Nash was the only one missing in 2009 IN PHOENIX, while Howard was the only one who missed in '06. Also, Ray Allen in '10).

Last year's rankings and the average rankings of the 8 players over the 4 seasons stay true to form, except for Nash and Bosh switching. Despite still being in his early prime, Bosh had the biggest drop in PER over the 4 seasons, as expected considering the circumstances. His last two seasons in Toronto, including 4th in 2010, gave him the lead over Nash overall. This might give us an idea of where Pau's will go next year.

Worth mentioning: In 2008 Bosh had a 24.23 PER, 6th in the league and one spot ahead of Kobe, who had a 24.09. Pau split that season between MEM and LAL and was 18th at 21.42. Pau's last full season with Memphis: 7th with 24.22. Almost identical to Bosh's '08, likely with a somewhat similar team, though Bosh was 3 years younger. I bring these up because Bosh is still in his early prime at 28, so any past performance can still be deemed relevant, as well as to include Pau's final season as the main man in the conversation for perspective. Since I mentioned '07 I'll throw in D-Wade's league-leading 29.04 as a bonus. He played 51 games before he injured his shoulder via Shane Battier just as he was really percolating that season.

I wasn't sure how Pau and Nash would wind up relative to each other. I was a little surprised to see Pau ahead, especially considering most expect Nash to play a bigger role than Gasol for LA. That adds an interesting dynamic to the equation. Their likely fourth option might be better than their...OK I don't even know where to put Nash as an "option."

Beyond that, a pretty clear order is established among the 3 powerhouses up top. LeBron and Wade appeared to be the perennial 1/2 until joining up pushed Wade down one spot (Paul nudged him out in '12, with Durant/Love filling out the rest of the top 6). Seeing LeBron play what many consider his best season, yet still not topping his highest PER indicates to me that even if Dwight's new teammates make his life easier, his won't go up significantly, if at all, next season.

Next I wanted to see their production vs. each other as units over the 4 years, even though they obviously weren't playing in these new units.


'09 - '12 "Big 4" Composite PER Averages

Miami HEAT 23.82

Los Angeles Lakers 22.73

=HEAT +1.09

Not far apart. As is obvious, this is with the Heat's Big 3 all having their numbers roll back after joining up after 2010, as well as Ray's being the most diminished by compacted role (as well as age), due in part to an emerging Rondo and more of a reliance on his threat over his production as his Boston tenure progressed. Ray's numbers particularly pull down the Heat's total average. Add to that LeBron still being on the uptick (27), Bosh at worst leveling off (28), and Dwyane (30) not declining the way some may think; relative to the Lakers two youngest core players being Dwight (26) and Pau (32), it further frames the numbers in the Heat's favor. Dwight is still getting better, his numbers may not reflect that until the team is fully his though. Hard to tell what to expect from the other three, but logic/history suggests they won't trend upward; especially further sharing a load, as indicated by the shift in the Heat 3's numbers after joining up.

I must say, this result surprised me. When I decided to look at this, I expected LA to come out on top, especially with Ray in the mix. I figured Dwight and Nash playing "alone," and Pau as a 2nd option over 4 years would put LA over Miami fairly easily.

All things considered, there's a possibility all 4 Heat players could trend upwards, or at the least as a unit. No idea how large of a role he'll have, but Ray could get back over 15. Bosh seems to have turned a page comfort-wise, he may get back to 20 for the first time here. Dwyane's PER last year would seem hard to top with the way we saw him play at the end of last season, but when you consider his accumulating that number with a bad knee during a relatively poor (for him) season, coupled with his PER-friendly game, it wouldn't be out of the question for him to go higher.

All this really tells us, for whatever its worth, is the 4 seasons leading up to next season (though in most cases on different teams on both sides) our core of stars still performs the best based on PER in the league. And, again in spite of Ray's heavy-swaying number (37), the Heat's core four is still two years younger than LA's on average. Take out Nash/Allen: Heat -2.3 (this is by current age, not exact days.) (Kobe turns 34 in five days. I made him 34.)


Just for added perspective, here's OKC's "Big 4" in 2012:

Kevin Durant 26.26 (6th)

Russell Westbrook 23 (10th)

James Harden 21.13 (30th)

Serge Ibaka 18.98 (46th)

Average: 22.34

vs. 2012 MIA

=HEAT +.4

vs. 2012 LA

=Thunder +.58

OKC's still looking pretty scary numbers-wise. Even as a true unit their Big 4 beat out LA's with Nash and Howard racking up stats on their own. Heat still got the edge, however. OKC's number is aided by their experience together, but they also have more room to grow when considering their youth. They signed Ibaka to an extension today (overpaid), if they can lock Harden down for the long haul, too, this could be a major force for awhile.


Here's a look at all 4 isolated seasons as units to get a better idea how they've related over the years, knowing the situations behind the numbers.


2012:

Miami HEAT 22.74

Los Angeles Lakers 21.76

=HEAT +.98

2011:

Los Angeles Lakers 23.55

Miami HEAT 22.21

=Lakers +1.34

2010:

Miami HEAT 24.9

Los Angeles Lakers 22.67

=HEAT +2.23

2009:

Miami HEAT 25.44

Los Angeles Lakers 22.94

=HEAT +2.50

With Kobe and Pau sharing touches during the final 2 seasons the Heat's Big 3 all lead their own teams, combined with Ray having a fairly productive 2nd season with Boston, the Heat's 4 outperformed LA's pretty significantly. However the Lakers 4, with Howard and Nash somewhere around the peak of their powers and hauling a heavy load in ORL and PHX, surpassed the Heat's in the 1st year of the Big 3. LeBron shot around 40% the first month of the season as he adjusted to new everything. Bosh struggled. Wade had to pull back his passing game. The next year the Heat take it back, even with Ray's ankle injury and limited responsibilities pulling him below the league average PER of 15, Dwyane in many ways having the worst season of his career since he was a rookie, and Bosh still struggling to settle into the 3rd option consistently.

I'm interested in seeing where the numbers wind up in 2013, great teammates can help each other out in production, while also diminishing the opportunity for it. Howard will have less post opportunities, and Nash won't have the ball quite as much as he's used to, but Howard is the best pick-and-roll big in the league and Nash is obviously one of the best at running it. We saw what he did with Stoudemire. Howard is better at finishing it. It's also hard to not see Kobe getting more efficient and possibly seeing an increase in assists, which will offset the impact of reduced PPG on his PER. Pau being a better rebounder/shotblocker than Bosh will make up for his reduced offensive production. Playing less out of the low-post may reduce his FG%, though.

Also remains to be seen in what way the mutually-beneficial threats of Ray and the Big 3 will manifest themselves schematically/statistically. Beefing up the shooters on the roster increases the chances the Heat can (for once in the Big 3 era) have shooters who hit shots during the season. That would finally allow Dwyane and LeBron to really play the game they want to play.

Lastly, I thought it might be helpful to combine the last 2 seasons, as its a greater sample size of most recent play.


2012 + 2011:

Los Angeles Lakers 22.66

Miami HEAT 22.47

=Lakers +.19

HEAT Without Ray Allen 24.76

=HEAT +2.10

+ Lakers Without Steve Nash 23.36

=HEAT +1.40

LA eeks out MIA by a narrow .2, though the advantages I brought up earlier should be considered. Not entirely fair since we're mainly trying to go 4 x 4 here, but I wanted to also look at the numbers without Ray's stat anvil bogging them down. In the two years the Heat 3 played as a unit, they still out-PER'd the Lakers 4 with Howard and Nash carrying middling franchises. The ladder pair's opportunity to increase efficiency can keep their PER at its current level amid reduced production, or perhaps even increase it. But once all 8 players are playing with their current teams, I'd expect that -.2 to be overcome by Miami anyway. Just for fun I also tried LA's top 3 performers against the Heat's. Since Nash's numbers aren't far behind Pau's, this was kind of pointless. The fact that they'll potentially be spreading that high an average among 4 players is where the advantage lies, however once you get to the 3rd/4th player, star status matters less than efficiency/skill. Despite his lower PERs, I still think Ray can contribute evenly with the fourth contributor for LA.

To me, this further suggests that the talent gap may not be as great as some think in LA's favor, even before bringing age into the discussion. This is all putting any potential schematic advantages aside.

--

I know this might look like I'm saying "Don't draw conclusions from this" while suggesting you draw conclusions from it, but I'm really not...at least not any sort of definitive conclusion. I honestly started this out expecting LA to look pretty clearly better than Miami. I just figure that the same way, for instance, John Hollinger used PER as part of his argument for placement of the best performances in Finals history (Wade was #1), this can be brought into the discussion for how these teams might face off. Of course, Hollinger's list is an analysis of past performances for the purpose of ranking, while this is doing so to picture the success of future units that haven't entirely played together. I did read a RealGM blog post about where the Heat's Big 3 would rank amongst the NBA's best of all time during the 2010 offseason, which is probably where I got the idea for this.

One thing that may be able to be surmised is that the Heat's stars have the potential for greatest overall impact, ignoring style of play or team concept, while also being younger. Though we've seen them fail, its difficult to confidently count out LeBron and Dwyane in a series, no matter who they're playing. Again, nothing conclusive can be drawn from this at all in terms of who'd win a series if all healthy, but its an excuse to have a little more confidence in your team, Heat fans. We're still really good. Probably the most Pollyanna way to look at this as a Heat fan would be to deduce that we have the 2 best players in the series, while LA has the next best 2 (Howard, Bryant), Bosh coming in next, followed by Pau, Nash, and Allen. Obviously that's a futile ranking, as it won't mean all that much in the end, if its even truly accurate.

To expand the discussion to the team, I think the Heat have a little more in support of the 4's. I know Jamison has had some strong play since then, but he looked shot 2 years ago when the Cavs acquired him. And is Jodie Meeks significantly better than...shit, what we know of Terrel Harris? Meeks hasn't impressed me much in the league, and 41% shooting (not from 3, overall) isn't cutting the mustard. On the Heat's side, Chalmers seems to be having some sort of 2 steps forward, 1 step back progression throughout his career. He's yet to hit his prime and you can see him still growing, so if what we saw in this last year's playoffs is a sign of where he may plateau, he can become a huge advantage for us. Rashard is another X-factor, and beyond that all we need are periodic, solid contributions from the Battier/UD/Miller/Cole/Joel bunch. I don't know too much about Goudelock and Morris, or what Hill or Ebanks will ultimately provide, but I see more potential from our supporting cast. Yes, just maybe even enough to overcome their Nashty, Twin-tower attack.

Also, should be noted that the biggest hole in PER might be true defense (i.e. not blocks/steals). I would say that's a greater strength of our stars than LA's.

But both teams will be powerhouses. Clear-cut superpowers of the league. They'll have different strengths and weaknesses, and will improve before the 2013 Playoffs by signing discarded free agents who plug up their respective holes. Yes, LA has become another top FA destination in the league, but fortunately we'll be going after different players for the most part. Its going to come down to health, fit, matchups, a little coaching, a little chemistry, a little luck, and ultimately how far the best players will carry their teams.

So, in summation:

Heat in 5.

__________________
Jace's soundcloud

R-Star

Uhhh, ya, they actually do. Any sane person would consider a championship in the last 5 years recent.


Good posting as per usual Adam.

__________________