[Schilly]

We all know teams tank. And some teams do a blow up rebuild banking on the draft the following year. Neither thing is good for the NBA. Here's an idea I have about how to not only try and discourage Blow Up rebuilds and late season tank jobs, it would make the lotto race kinda fun and entertaining.

Lotto Odds
We have set lotto odds right now. Let's make them variable. To find the odds we need the worst teams winning percentage and a multiplier to determine all the odds. The multiplier is simply 1 - (worst teams PCT). Using last year the Grizzlies had a .268 winning pct, subtracted from 1 that gives a multiplier of .732. Meaning that the 2nd worst team has 73.2% of the chances that the worst team has. To determine all the odds we start with the worst teams winning pct and apply the multiplier to find the 2nd teams odds all the way to #14.
Using the Grizzlies last year the odds would go like this.
0.268
0.196
0.143
0.105
0.077
0.056
0.041
0.030
0.022
0.016
0.012
0.009
0.007
0.005

To apply it to 1000 Combinations we add all the odds together for a total of .987. Each odd is divided by .987 and then multiplied by 1000 to com up with the number of combos each team receives. in this case:
272
199
145
106
78
57
42
30
22
16
12
9
7
5

So then the goal to have the best odds is to be the worst team in the leageu while having the best possible record.

Odds Stealing
Now this is where things get interesting and maybe fun. In order to keep middle pack teams from tanking to a lower position in the middle we'll put in place "Odds Stealing" the way it works for each win better that a team has then the team just worse then them they are awarded 5% of that teams combinations. A team needs to be concerned not only with protecting their combos, but also stealing the combos of the team just worse than theirs. The best Lotto team would lose no combos, and the worst team can gain none from anyone else. Again looking at last season: Memphis, with my system had 272 combos pre "odds Stealing". Boston had 2 more wins then Memphis so steals 10% (5% for each win better) of The Grizzlies combinations taking the Grizzlies to 245 combos and bumping Boston to 226...But hold on the 3rd best team had 28 wins and then steals 20% of Bostons initial 199 combos, Bringing Boston down to 186 from their initial 199.

Summary
I don't think that many really bad teams are a result of simply being bad, they are typically a result of total strip down re-build or a tank job over the last 25 or so games of a season once it is obvious that they aren't going to make the playoffs and are in place to be in the top 5 odds for the lotto. Currently it benefits a team and their fans if a team worse than them wins and they lose. Using this system that would make things a little different. Teams would need to win to keep their COmbos and Steal teh combos fromt he team just worse than them. They'd need to not lose so they keep their combos and don't give some back to the lesser team. The only major problem I could think of is the really really bad teams... Like the 13 win Hawks, or the Heat this year. In the case of the Hawks I think this kind of program would put more emphaiss on teams deciding it's ok to go into a season with a terrible season since they will get bailed out in the Lotto. With the Heat, their record IMO not 100% indicitive of how good/Bad they are. they have a big time Star in Wade who simply hasn't been healthy all season. Are they punished for being terrible? YEs they are, but next season when Wade comes back healthy they will still have a top 4 pick to add along side Wade.

[Schilly]

BTW just for a point of reference after tiebreakers and "Odds Stealing" this is how last years Lotto Odds would have been.

245
186
170
116
79
61
40
32
22
14
14
7
9
5

[Pimped Out]

AHHH, Math!

[Schilly]

Originally Posted by Pimped Out

AHHH, Math!

Oops I forgot the Disclaimer!

[NewAgeBaller]

Its aight, but that "odds stealing" could get very confusing.. Guess we leave the math to the pros and machines..

Our lottery system now is really fine though, its just everyone that doesn't suck enough complaining about how bull**** the system is.

[Schilly]

Originally Posted by NewAgeBaller

Its aight, but that "odds stealing" could get very confusing.. Guess we leave the math to the pros and machines..

Our lottery system now is really fine though, its just everyone that doesn't suck enough complaining about how bull**** the system is.

The odds stealing thing is actually really easy to compute. A single team is only affected by thte team immediately better than them or immediately worse than them. I took about a half hour and with Excel all I do is plug in the records 1-14 from a given season and boom instant results.

[Schilly]

The basic premise is that bad teams still have the best odds of winning the lotto but their odds are dinged for sucking big time. It means that if they want better odds in the Lotto thy have to win more games.

[Pimped Out]

Originally Posted by Schilly

The odds stealing thing is actually really easy to compute. A single team is only affected by thte team immediately better than them or immediately worse than them. I took about a half hour and with Excel all I do is plug in the records 1-14 from a given season and boom instant results.

Yeah, the math is not terribly complicated (a disclaimer still would have been nice), and this would eliminate most tanking until the last week of the season.

[afobisme]

how about the 2nd worst record in the league gets the best chance, and the worst record in the league gets the 2nd best chance?