ROY Discussion (Mayo vs. Rose vs. Westbrook vs. Lopez)

[E.H. Munro]

Originally Posted by Diable

So now he's being compared to big ugly goons...I really don't think that's called for

Perkins is a pretty good defender & rebounder. Albeit one completely without offensive skills. But there are few post defenders in the NBA better than Perk (when healthy, that is).

[Najee]

Originally Posted by Dornado

Everyone knows he's raw... at his age Russell, Robinson and O'Neal were all still in college...

Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson were considerably better than Greg Oden at the same age.

Oden will be 21 tomorrow. When he was 21, Shaq was in his second NBA season and on his way to averaging 29.3 points and 13.2 rebounds per game in the 1993-94 season. When he was 21, The Admiral was the best player in college basketball.

I did not have the pleasure of seeing Bill Russell play in the mid-50s. But given that he is considered one of the very best college players ever and he was a senior at San Francisco at the time it is a little hard for me to argue he was in the same boat then that Oden is in now.

Again, this is another example of how preposterous the comparisons are with Oden. When it seems favorable, he's positioned next to some of the best big men ever to play basketball -- even though he clearly doesn't measure up at those respective stages. Oden doesn't have the same performances and consistency, the same freakish athleticism (especially in the cases of Shaq and The Admiral), the same skill, the same durability and the same skill toolkit as those guys.

And none of these guys came into the NBA struggling the way Oden has.

[rocketeer]

Originally Posted by Najee

P.S. I'm still trying to see how Oden is supposedly better than Brook Lopez so far this season, especially considering Lopez completely outplayed him on Jan. 15.

it shouldn't be that difficult as i have said it on multiple occasions and given the reasons. but i'll tell you again one more time and leave it at that.

oden is a better scorer(and has been this season). this is because he's a more efficient scorer(high fg%, efg%, points per shot, etc) while also getting to the free throw line more often(he makes the same amount that lopez attempts) and being assisted on less of his baskets(50% for oden to 60% for lopez). his points per game are lower, but his points per minute are pretty similar and he only play 6-7 less minutes a game so it's not like there's some huge difference and comparing their per minute numbers is deceiving.

he's also a better rebounder(and has been this season). this can be seen with his 7 rebounds in 23 minutes against lopez's 8 rebounds in 29.5 minutes. this also is illustrated by their rebound rate(oden 34.4 while lopez is 29.6).

oden also is a better passer(and has been this season). this can be seen by their assists, assists/turnover ratio, and their passer rating(this and rebound rate both from 82games.com). it also can come from just watching their games where you can see oden is good at things like passing out of doubles.

we also have the fact that oden draws more attention from opposing teams. in the post he is often double teamed and when going head to head with lopez, everytime oden caught the ball in the post he either scored or was fouled by lopez. that however was a very small sample of 4 times, after which oden came out of the game and was not used as a part of the offense when he returned in limited minutes.

oden also has a slight lead over lopez in per.

and then there is defense where i believe oden is better even though lopez has superior block numbers.

[Najee]

Your argument is even weaker than the first time you said it, rocketeer. You're proof that using obscure stats (that include projections and hypotheticals) don't show how smart you are, but how you hope to confuse people with common sense.

The fact you have to stretch that far to make an unconvincing arugment that Greg Oden is better than the likes of Brook Lopez merely emphasizes how ridiculous it is for some overzealous people to try to compare Oden with some of the greatest centers in NBA history.

[rocketeer]

Originally Posted by Najee

Your argument is even weaker than the first time you said it, rocketeer. You're proof that using obscure stats (that include projections and hypotheticals) don't show how smart you are, but how you hope to confuse people with common sense.

The fact you have to stretch that far to make an unconvincing arugment that Greg Oden is better than the likes of Brook Lopez merely emphasizes how ridiculous it is for some overzealous people to try to compare Oden with some of the greatest centers in NBA history.

i used no projections or hypotheticals. didn't really use any obsure stats either. if something like rebound rate or per is too obscure for you, other things like looking at rebounds per game, field goal percentage, etc do the trick just find. it is common sense that would suggest someone who gets 7 rebounds in 23 minutes is a better rebounder than someone who gets 8 rebounds in 29.5 minutes, but maybe that is too much for you. common sense would also suggest that if you are a better rebounder, more efficient scorer(though score a little less), better passer, and better defender, then you also are the better basketball player even if you play 6-7 less minutes per game.

your second paragraph is entirely unrelated to this argument. greg oden has been a disappointment thus far. you won't see anyone anywhere saying anything different.

[Najee]

Using rate-based statistics are projections, so it shows you clearly don't understand what you're posting. I'm not impressed that someone averages 7 rebounds in 23 minutes vs. 8 rebounds in 29 minutes, particularly when you have no context for numbers.

For instance, Greg Oden plays only 23 minutes per game because he fouls so much (roughly 1 foul for every 6 minutes he plays). So the rate is less impressive when you look at the whole picture of Oden's situation.

When Oden is consistently good enough to stay on the floor, then we'll talk.

[Luke]

Ehh, IMO it's pretty funny that Oden went from Shaq to Brook Lopez in just a few months.

[Najee]

Originally Posted by VanillaPrice

Ehh, IMO it's pretty funny that Oden went from Shaq to Brook Lopez in just a few months.

It's pretty obvious that some people want to crow about Greg Oden only when he has a good game. Where is the post where he put in 10 points and 8 rebounds before (yes) fouling out in 25 minutes vs. Cleveland on Wednesday?

Like it or not, those numbers are reflective of Oden's play.

[HB]

Originally Posted by Najee

Using rate-based statistics are projections, so it shows you clearly don't understand what you're posting. I'm not impressed that someone averages 7 rebounds in 23 minutes vs. 8 rebounds in 29 minutes, particularly when you have no context for numbers.

For instance, Greg Oden plays only 23 minutes per game because he fouls so much (roughly 1 foul for every 6 minutes he plays). So the rate is less impressive when you look at the whole picture of Oden's situation.

When Oden is consistently good enough to stay on the floor, then we'll talk.

Thank you, summed up perfectly

[E.H. Munro]

Originally Posted by Najee

Using rate-based statistics are projections, so it shows you clearly don't understand what you're posting. I'm not impressed that someone averages 7 rebounds in 23 minutes vs. 8 rebounds in 29 minutes, particularly when you have no context for numbers.

RebRates aren't "projections". They're an approximation of the percentage of available rebounds that a player accrues while he's on the floor. Oden grabs a much higher percentage of the available rebounds than Brook Lopez does. The fact that Brook manages to score three more points by taking four more shots and grabbing an extra rebound in 25% more time does not, in fact, make him a better scorer and rebounder than Oden. That argument is a lot like the one that Antoine Walker fans used to make about their hero. At the end of the day Brook Lopez is a seven footer that can't manage to hit half of his shots.

[HB]

So does this mean Love is the best rebounder in the class?

As for Brook's FG%, it only takes two good games to bump that over 50%.

[E.H. Munro]

Love certainly looks like the best rebounder in the 2008 draft class so far. Though I still think it was a foolish move of Minnesota unless they were planning on trading the Big Lazy. Because you really can't put Jefferson and Love on the floor at the same time.

[rocketeer]

Originally Posted by Najee

It's pretty obvious that some people want to crow about Greg Oden only when he has a good game. Where is the post where he put in 10 points and 8 rebounds before (yes) fouling out in 25 minutes vs. Cleveland on Wednesday?

Like it or not, those numbers are reflective of Oden's play.

apparently, you're just another guy who doesn't watch games.

oden was fine against the cavs. yes, he fouled out. he also got called for two questionable offensive foul calls going against varejao and one of his fouls was a terrible call when him and lebron both dove for a loose ball. and that he was able to score 10 points and get 8 rebounds and an assist when he was only passed the ball in the post something like 5 times all game was a pretty decent accomplishment.

i don't intend up bringing this back up after every single game though, good or bad. the season will play at and when can get back to this as needed.

[rocketeer]

Originally Posted by HB

So does this mean Love is the best rebounder in the class?

As for Brook's FG%, it only takes two good games to bump that over 50%.

yes, kevin love has been the best rebounder in the class.

as for brook's fg%, it already took two good games that he had very recently to bump it up over 47%. my guess is it would fall back there closer to where it's been the majority of the season than to jump up over 50%. but hey, that is better than i thought it would be.

[Najee]

Originally Posted by rocketeer

apparently, you're just another guy who doesn't watch games.

oden was fine against the cavs. yes, he fouled out. he also got called for two questionable offensive foul calls going against varejao and one of his fouls was a terrible call when him and lebron both dove for a loose ball. and that he was able to score 10 points and get 8 rebounds and an assist when he was only passed the ball in the post something like 5 times all game was a pretty decent accomplishment.

I watched the game, and overall I didn't find Greg Oden to be that impressive vs. Cleveland. He was OK at best, again not what you would expect from a player with such expectations. The part you don't seem to understand is that is a typical game from Oden (including fouling out), not the exception.