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Old 07-22-2006, 08:54 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Evidence that the League has declined ?

I ran across a ratings system on Basketball-Reference.com that accumulates factors from each team's season and ranks them against all other teams.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...mit=View+Teams

To find that Jordan's Bulls occupy the top 2 spots wasn't a surprise; but when I found the 2006 Maverick team that made the Finals at #50 all time, and Miami's championship team no where in the top 50, it made it painfully obvious that what I felt to be true is indeed the case:

The NBA isn't what it used to be. Thoughts?
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Old 07-22-2006, 09:49 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Evidence that the League has declined ?

I don't really know where this rating comes from. Is it some combination of Pts/Posession and Pts allowed/Possession? Are the 87 Mavs really the 5th best team of all time? The 95 Sonics the 6th best? Call me skeptical...both of those teams lost in the first round.

And even if this were an accurate rating of team ability, all it would measure would be how teams stack up against others in the same year. So it's difficult to conclude that the league has declined just by looking at that. It may be that we have simply achieved more parity--i.e. that the top teams are not as dominant compared to the rest of the league, because talent is more evenly distributed.
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Old 07-22-2006, 09:53 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Evidence that the League has declined ?

I think it is just offensive rating. There is no way the 2005 Suns and recent Mavs teams could be up there if defense is factored in.
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Old 07-22-2006, 09:57 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Evidence that the League has declined ?

Mavs were 7th this year in defensive rating man
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Old 07-22-2006, 09:58 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Evidence that the League has declined ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopla
I think it is just offensive rating. There is no way the 2005 Suns and recent Mavs teams could be up there if defense is factored in.
Just looked at it again and it seems you're right Hoopla. This is just Offensive Rtg (pts/posession).

Which is a pretty good measure of how good teams were offensively, but not really an accurate way to find the best teams of all time, much less to conclude that the league has declined.
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Old 07-22-2006, 10:49 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Evidence that the League has declined ?

It's a faulty rating system for this use, my apology.

Apparantly, this ranking is based on something called Pace Factor.

Quote:
What is Pace Factor?

Pace Factor is an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team and its opponents. It is calculated as follows:

0.44*(tmFTA + oppFTA) + tmFGA + oppFGA + tmTO + oppTO - tmORB - oppORB
Pace = 48 * ----------------------------------------------------------------------
2 * tmMP
Not a good barometer of overall dominance between teams from different seasons, I suppose.
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