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Old 06-16-2007, 05:47 PM   #1 (permalink)
Brockin25
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Ranking the top ten all-time

Article found here: http://joehoo.net/index.php?idx=stories&topic=4

The Greatest NBA players ever

The more rabid NBA fans you will find are constantly debating who is the best of all-time. Wilt, Jordan, Magic, etc… the discussion rages on like the ocean. Can a clear list ever really be determined? Can you even do that? Is it possible to rank even a small number of players? Does opinion have to come into play at some point?

First, I don’t think you can rank these players in some sort of scientific way. Opinion does have to come into play, if not in conclusions, then also in how you weight specific achievements, objective indicators, and so on. Ranking these players may not be possible in the way that you would rank efficient scorers based on eFG%.

Therefore, the premise of ranking NBA players all-time will be this: If someone held a gun to my head and said I had to, what would the rankings look like?

Factors involved in the rankings

NBA Championships


Not only will I look to rings first, as they are the main reason you play the game, I will weight the ring. Since only first and second options would even be involved in this discussion, a ring as the leader of your team will be scored a 1, while a ring as the second fiddle will be scored at 0.32 if you played with the best player in your era, and 0.50 if you did not. The players will be ranked based on how many initial points they have, and then given final points based on the rankings.

The players involved in these rankings will be:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O’neal
Oscar Robertson


The first category will be weighted so that the winner receives 1 point, 2nd place 0.90, all the way down. A player will be given an extra 0.10 for every total initial point he scores above and beyond the player ranked behind him.

Statistics

Next I’ll look to stats. To remove opinions from the argument as much as possible, I’ll be going straight to Player Efficiency Ranking.

This category will be weighted so that the winner receives 0.90, 2nd place gets 0.80 all the way down.

Postseason awards

MVPs count for 1. NBA Finals MVPs count for 0.50. Because the award was not given out until 1969, we will presume that Russell would have won five of them, giving him 2.5 points. Once all points are added up, the winner receives 0.80 and the list heads all the way down by 0.10 per ranking. Anyone with 0 postseason awards receives a 0.00.

Circumstantial

This is a category where players can pick up extra points for things like winning without another star on your team, or maybe lose points for having a lot of hall of famers on your team. The scores will be given at 0.50 to first place with each place dropping 0.05. This category seeks to reward players who suffered from unduly harsh circumstances, or dock players who benefited from optimal circumstances.

Without further adieu, let’s do the scoring:

Rings:

Russell 11
Jordan 6
Johnson 4.32
Duncan 4
O’neal 3.5
Abdul-Jabbar 3.28
Bird 3
Olajuwon 2
Chamberlain 2
Robertson 0.50

So the scoring breaks down like this:

Russell 1.5
Jordan 1.0
Johnson 0.8
Duncan 0.7
O’neal 0.6
Abdul-Jabbar 0.5
Bird 0.5
Olajuwon 0.3
Chamberlain 0.3
Robertson 0.1

Statistics: Initial points will be given based on sequential ranking in career PER.

PER rankings:

Michael Jordan 1
Shaquille O’neal 2
Wilt Chamberlain 4
Tim Duncan 6
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 9
Magic Johnson 11
Hakeem Olajuwon 16
Larry Bird 18
Oscar Robertson 21
Bill Russell 97

While giving out final points in this category, a player will be docked 0.01, for every spot on the all-time list occupied by somebody other than the person who ranked ahead of him on this list. For example, Kobe Bryant and Yao Ming rank 19th and 20th respectively in PER. So Oscar Robertson, who ranked 21st, will be docked and additional 0.02 from Larry Bird, who ranked 18th. Russell and Chamberlain will not be docked due to one of their greatest stats, BPG, not being counted as a stat for much of their careers. Here are the final rankings for this category:

Michael Jordan 0.90
Shaquille O’neal 0.80
Wilt Chamberlain 0.70
Tim Duncan 0.59
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.48
Magic Johnson 0.38
Hakeem Olajuwon 0.25
Larry Bird 0.19
Oscar Roberson 0.08
Bill Russell 0.0

Postseason Awards:

Michael Jordan 8
Bill Russell 7.5
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 6.5
Wilt Chamberlain 4.5
Larry Bird 4.0
Magic Johnson 4.0
Tim Duncan 3.5
Shaquille O’neal 2.5
Hakeem Olajuwon 2.0
Oscar Robertson 1.0

Scoring:

Michael Jordan 0.8
Bill Russell 0.7
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.6
Wilt Chamberlain 0.5
Larry Bird 0.4
Magic Johnson 0.4
Tim Duncan 0.2
Shaquille O’neal 0.1

Circumstantial

Right off the bat Russell and Bird are going to get 0.0 because they each played with more hall of famers than anyone else in their era. Hakeem is going to be awarded 0.50 for winning a ring without another star in 94. Magic and Kareem will be given a 0.35 due to Finals wins over a Celtic team with more hall of famers. Jordan and Shaq are going to receive a 0.125 because they both played with one of the best second fiddles of all-time. Everyone else will receive a 0.25.

Final scores:

Jordan 2.825
Russell 2.20
Chamberlain 1.95
Abdul-Jabbar 1.93
Johnson 1.82
Duncan 1.74
O’neal 1.625
Olajuwon 1.15
Bird 1.09
Robertson 0.43


1. Michael Jordan – As a Jordan fan, I even docked MJ in the circumstantial category, and it wasn’t enough. Russell won more, but was not there statistically. Chamberlain had better stats, but wasn’t close as a winner. Jordan’s claim to fame, as some detractors mistake constantly, is not that he’s better at everything than anyone ever. He’s just better at more than any one player ever.

2. Bill Russell – Russell is so hard to rank. He probably is hurt by DPOY, NBA Finals MVP and BPG not being tracked throughout his career, but at the same time, you look at the talent Auerbach surrounded him with and you consider one other thing… Russell was smaller than Scottie Pippen. Also, Russell was not a great offensive player. It all cancels out, and in the end, Bill Russell is clearly cemented as the second best all-time. Only Michael Jordan can rival Russell’s fanatical desire to win at all costs. The looks on his face is some game photos show you what true competition is. You can’t say enough good things about Bill Russell.

3. Wilt Chamberlain – Great statman, but he killed himself losing game 7 of the 1969 and 1970 Finals. In 69, Russell beat Wilt in his last game ever. In 70, Willis Reed was hurt and Wilt failed to sufficiently dominate Dave Debusschere. Add to this two other interesting facts that could cause one to say that Wilt is even too high in the rankings… his career playoff stats are 22.0 PPG on 52.2% FG and his best statistical years came on his worst teams. There’s no question that Wilt Chamberlain is the most talented player to ever play the game, edging out even Shaq and Jordan by a narrow margin. But he lacked the heart and competitiveness to rank higher. With those two things, he’d be the unquestioned greatest of all-time.

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – Who knows where he would have ranked had he either played with Oscar longer, or joined Magic at a younger age. He’s definitely a player I could see being number 1 under the proper circumstances.

5. Magic Johnson – We’re still in the range where so little separates the players from each other. If Magic could have beaten Michael, or if he played longer and won more, he could have been top 3 as well. His current ranking is nothing to shake a stick at.

6. Tim Duncan – Tragically underrated because of his lack of charisma, personality, and possibly even pulse. As a basketball player, he’s dead on. He’s also not done yet either, having just won his fourth championship as the leader of his team, a feet matched only by Russell, Jordan and Johnson. He may even win a couple more. It would not be inconceivable for Duncan to rank as high as 3rd when his career is over.

7. Shaquille O’neal – Killed his chances to rank higher due to his inability to just be civil with Bryant. Magic and Kareem were not best friends either, but they held it together. O’neal could not do that. Had O’neal stayed in shape and continued winning, or had he done more in Orlando, he could have ranked in the top 3 when all was said and done. As it stands, it doesn’t look like he will be much higher than he is now when all is said and done. O’neal has said over and over again that his main love was always football. Perhaps that holds the key to why he does not rank higher. Perhaps he wasn’t always 100% in it.

8. Hakeem Olajuwon – Spent much of his career without much of a supporting cast to speak of. He showed what he could deliver when he became only the third player in my lifetime (Wade, D. Johnson) to lead a team without a star in his prime to a ring. However, losses to teams like the Suns really damaged his standing all-time. Also stuck around way too long.

9. Larry Bird – This is the end of the top tier all-time. After Bird, there is a dropoff. These nine players, including Larry, are the very finest players the NBA has ever produced, however you choose to rank them. Bird benefited heavily from his superior supporting cast. In Jordan’s shoes, I’m not sure Larry Bird wins much, and if he could have done more v. Magic, he might have ranked as high as 6th, but no higher. Bird probably overachieved.

9. Hakeem Olajuwon – Spent much of his career without much of a supporting cast to speak of. He showed what he could deliver when he became only the third player in my lifetime (Wade, D. Johnson) to lead a team without a star in his prime to a ring. However, losses to teams like the Suns really damaged his standing all-time. Also stuck around way too long.

10. Oscar Robertson – Perhaps one of the most overrated players all-time, when people try ranking him ahead of players like Russell, Kareem, Jordan or Wilt. At 10th all-time, he’s just right. People need to look past his triple double season and the perceived lack of comparative talent around him, and view his career as the body of work it is. Had he achieved even one series win over Russell, or had he actually been the leader of the Bucks, that would be one thing. As it stands he just doesn’t belong in the same tier with the top 9 players. He belongs more with Hakeem, Havlicek, Pippen, McHale, K. Malone, M. Malone, Isiah Thomas, etc. Thomas, in fact, is probably better, and probably would be widely viewed as better if he was not the leader of the Bad Boy Pistons. It is worth nothing that both Kobe Bryant and Isiah Thomas could have scored the same point total as Robertson did.

Last edited by Brockin25 : 06-16-2007 at 05:52 PM.
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Old 06-16-2007, 07:21 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

niiice
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Old 06-16-2007, 07:39 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Any ranking system that places Duncan ahead of Shaq, Hakeem, and BIRD, and says Oscar is not top-tier, is severely flawed IMO
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Old 06-17-2007, 01:06 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTA Addict
Any ranking system that places Duncan ahead of Shaq, Hakeem, and BIRD, and says Oscar is not top-tier, is severely flawed IMO
Perhaps you'd like to propose a better system. I'll take any system over "Bird is better because he's Bird."

Oscar isn't top tier.. his resume just doesn't qualify as on the same level as the other nine. He had either Jerry Lucas or Lew Alcindor, both top 50 players, one of them a top 3 player all-time, and he walked away with 1 ring as the second best player on his team and 0 Finals MVPs. To me he belongs more with Kobe Bryant (who very well could be top tier when it's all over), Isiah Thomas, Jon Havlicek, Karl Malone, etc. than with that top tier.

In fact, if anything, while Moses Malone doesn't score higher than Bird, he'd probably do better than Oscar. That's how you know you've begun a top tier... when you could take Isiah, Kobe, Oscar and Moses, they all score about the same, but none of them has enough to score better than Bird, who was docked circumstantially.
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Old 06-17-2007, 01:54 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Tim Duncan just like the article said is very underrated. The system he plays on where he anchors both offense and defense and the success he had since his rookie year was tremendous. Now he has won four and is just a tower of consistency.
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Old 06-17-2007, 06:48 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Hakeem is in there twice?
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Old 06-17-2007, 08:30 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Not a problem with that ranking . . . Oscar deserves to be somewhere in the 7-10 mix 9 or 10 if you give a premium to interior defense. Couple of points, (1) Russell is NOT smaller than Pippen, measuring differences mean about 1-2 inches . . . if you look at tapes of the 50 greatest ceremonies and see Russell standing next to Hakeem, Russell is actually a hair taller! (2) Dennis Johnson didn't lead a team with no stars to a championship, if anything, Jack Sikma led a team with two second tier stars of about equal impact, DJ and Gus Williams. If was a balanced team with 3 stars in their primes but no top 20 all-time greats.

One more thing. PER underrates players from before they started counting blocks and steals. If you count them, Wilt, Russell, and Oscar probably move up the PER charts a bit.
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Old 06-17-2007, 04:47 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Fixed...
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Old 06-17-2007, 04:53 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBaronRudigor
Not a problem with that ranking . . . Oscar deserves to be somewhere in the 7-10 mix 9 or 10 if you give a premium to interior defense. Couple of points, (1) Russell is NOT smaller than Pippen, measuring differences mean about 1-2 inches . . . if you look at tapes of the 50 greatest ceremonies and see Russell standing next to Hakeem, Russell is actually a hair taller! (2) Dennis Johnson didn't lead a team with no stars to a championship, if anything, Jack Sikma led a team with two second tier stars of about equal impact, DJ and Gus Williams. If was a balanced team with 3 stars in their primes but no top 20 all-time greats.

One more thing. PER underrates players from before they started counting blocks and steals. If you count them, Wilt, Russell, and Oscar probably move up the PER charts a bit.
I believe I said size regarding Pippen. Russell is 6'9" 210 on basketball-reference.com. Pippen was a legit 6'8" (talked in interviews about listing himself as 6'7" for reverse psychology) and also was 225, so you add the weight and if Pippen wasn't bigger, he wasn't much smaller either. Pippen actually looks taller side-by-side than Horace Grant.

Dennis Johnson won Finals MVP on a team that, unlike the Spurs (before you bring them and Parker up as a counter) did not have a top 50 player... and I personally never thought much of Sikma and Johnson. HOWEVER, I think it's fairly obvious that that point may have been one of the least central points of the article.

PER was accounted and actually ADDRESSED in the article regarding Russell... Russell was not docked for not having a high PER, but his offensive numbers were never very good anyway, so even with blocks, it's not like he would have won it... Wilt's was high anyway, and even if he had ranked #1, it would not have overcome the disparity in other areas.
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Old 06-17-2007, 05:06 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Pretty nice. Not that i agree with everything, but atleast you offer more proof to backup your ranking and overall is a good list.

By the way, did you factored defense ?
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Old 06-17-2007, 06:54 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: Ranking the top ten all-time

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brockin25
Article found here: http://joehoo.net/index.php?idx=stories&topic=4

The Greatest NBA players ever

The more rabid NBA fans you will find are constantly debating who is the best of all-time. Wilt, Jordan, Magic, etc… the discussion rages on like the ocean. Can a clear list ever really be determined? Can you even do that? Is it possible to rank even a small number of players? Does opinion have to come into play at some point?

First, I don’t think you can rank these players in some sort of scientific way. Opinion does have to come into play, if not in conclusions, then also in how you weight specific achievements, objective indicators, and so on. Ranking these players may not be possible in the way that you would rank efficient scorers based on eFG%.

Therefore, the premise of ranking NBA players all-time will be this: If someone held a gun to my head and said I had to, what would the rankings look like?

Factors involved in the rankings

NBA Championships


Not only will I look to rings first, as they are the main reason you play the game, I will weight the ring. Since only first and second options would even be involved in this discussion, a ring as the leader of your team will be scored a 1, while a ring as the second fiddle will be scored at 0.32 if you played with the best player in your era, and 0.50 if you did not. The players will be ranked based on how many initial points they have, and then given final points based on the rankings.

The players involved in these rankings will be:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O’neal
Oscar Robertson


The first category will be weighted so that the winner receives 1 point, 2nd place 0.90, all the way down. A player will be given an extra 0.10 for every total initial point he scores above and beyond the player ranked behind him.

Statistics

Next I’ll look to stats. To remove opinions from the argument as much as possible, I’ll be going straight to Player Efficiency Ranking.

This category will be weighted so that the winner receives 0.90, 2nd place gets 0.80 all the way down.

Postseason awards

MVPs count for 1. NBA Finals MVPs count for 0.50. Because the award was not given out until 1969, we will presume that Russell would have won five of them, giving him 2.5 points. Once all points are added up, the winner receives 0.80 and the list heads all the way down by 0.10 per ranking. Anyone with 0 postseason awards receives a 0.00.

Circumstantial

This is a category where players can pick up extra points for things like winning without another star on your team, or maybe lose points for having a lot of hall of famers on your team. The scores will be given at 0.50 to first place with each place dropping 0.05. This category seeks to reward players who suffered from unduly harsh circumstances, or dock players who benefited from optimal circumstances.

Without further adieu, let’s do the scoring:

Rings:

Russell 11
Jordan 6
Johnson 4.32
Duncan 4
O’neal 3.5
Abdul-Jabbar 3.28
Bird 3
Olajuwon 2
Chamberlain 2
Robertson 0.50

So the scoring breaks down like this:

Russell 1.5
Jordan 1.0
Johnson 0.8
Duncan 0.7
O’neal 0.6
Abdul-Jabbar 0.5
Bird 0.5
Olajuwon 0.3
Chamberlain 0.3
Robertson 0.1

Statistics: Initial points will be given based on sequential ranking in career PER.

PER rankings:

Michael Jordan 1
Shaquille O’neal 2
Wilt Chamberlain 4
Tim Duncan 6
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 9
Magic Johnson 11
Hakeem Olajuwon 16
Larry Bird 18
Oscar Robertson 21
Bill Russell 97

While giving out final points in this category, a player will be docked 0.01, for every spot on the all-time list occupied by somebody other than the person who ranked ahead of him on this list. For example, Kobe Bryant and Yao Ming rank 19th and 20th respectively in PER. So Oscar Robertson, who ranked 21st, will be docked and additional 0.02 from Larry Bird, who ranked 18th. Russell and Chamberlain will not be docked due to one of their greatest stats, BPG, not being counted as a stat for much of their careers.