RollWithEm

I’ve always wanted to come up with some type of fair bracket-system tournament to compare all-time draft classes. I guess March Madness this year finally motivated me to see that plan through to fruition. I’ll give you the selection rules in question and answer format.

Q: How many teams?
A: Since the NBA hasn’t yet had 64 seasons and since available statistical data decreases in quality significantly the farther back into history you search, I’ve decided to go with a 32-team tournament.

Q: Which teams?
A: I’ve ruled out the last few draft classes because I don’t think we’ve seen enough of those players to make a fair judgment about them historically. So starting with the 2005 draft class, I merely counted backwards 32 years. Therefore, the draft classes considered in this tournament bracket will be 1974-2005.

Q: How did you decide which players to put on each team?
A: First, I started with the basis of a 12-man roster. Second, I decided to completely ignore career contribution and injury history since this will only be a single elimination tournament. Each team consists of the 12 best NBA single-season performances put forth by players from that draft class.

Q: How did you determine best single seasons?
A: I started with PER and then threw in defensive rating.

Q: Won’t that method ignore things like intangibles and leadership?
A: Yes, it will. That’s the point. I wanted to choose the teams without inserting much of my own opinion. The most statistically productive seasons among players in these draft classes have been chosen. I don’t presume to know enough about the intangibles displayed by these players much less the chemistry issues those intangibles would cause to use those things as deciding factors. Luckily, almost all of the best players from the last few decades of NBA basketball are represented on these teams. The system turned out to be extremely effective for team member selection.

Q: What happens if the team turns out to have no guards or centers?
A: Within reason, I tried to account for this when necessary. There were a few draft classes that were extraordinarily stacked at forward or guard and weak at the other positions. For the most part, I left those teams untouched. Occasionally, I threw out a very redundant player in favor of a ball-handler or defensive force to improve the overall make-up of the team. This only happened on 3 or 4 of the draft teams.

Q: How did you determine seeding?
A: I simply took the combined PER of the 12-man rosters for each draft class and put them in order from 1 to 32. I then assigned a seed (1 – 8) for each year. Then, the draws for each 1-seed were generated using a random number system. This seemed to be the fairest way possible. Every other method I came up with usually wound up with my favorite draft classes as the 1-seeds and my least favorites as the 8-seeds.

Q: What does all of this mean?
A: These rules should frame all discussions about these draft class match-ups. For instance if you’re looking at the 2000 draft class team wondering why you see Jason Hart’s name, you have to remember you’re not looking at just any Jason Hart. You’re looking at the 04-05 season’s horribly efficient Jason Hart with the 16.9 PER and solid defensive numbers. If you’re trying to decide whether Ron Artest could slow down Bernard King, you’re not talking about banged up Bernard and current Artest. You’re talking about defensive-player-of-the-year, physical Artest and every-move-in-the-book, peak-prime-level Bernard. All of these players are at their absolute apex of efficiency at the point this tournament is taking place. No Cinderellas are allowed in this big dance.

To build suspense and prevent people from looking ahead, I will now post only the first match-up I want to post from this illustrious draft class tournament. I will post my opinion on this game later so as not to influence too many people. This is the 3/6 match-up from the Len Bias region.

(3) 1981
G Isaiah Thomas
G Rolando Blackman
F Mark Aguirre
F Tom Chambers
C Larry Nance
-------------------------------------
G Danny Ainge
G Kelly Tripucka
F Eddie Johnson
F Orlando Woolridge
F Buck Williams
F Steve Johnson
C Danny Schayes

(6) 1976
G John Lucas
F Alex English
F Adrian Dantley
F Mitch Kupchak
C Robert Parish
-------------------------------------
G Dennis Johnson
G Sonny Parker
G Johnny Davis
G Quinn Buckner
F Terry Furlow
F Scott May
C Lonnie Shelton

In case anyone is wondering why I didn’t give people the chance to vote at the top of this thread, I don’t think votes on forums produce fair results. I would rather the winning squad be selected through mature discussion and general consensus.

So, let’s hear what questions/comments you guys have about the format of the tournament and about who would win this first match-up.

__________________
But that's just me.

BadBaronRudigor

Sounds like great fun! Since you have already done the work, for future matchups, can you post the statistics so we can see them?

For this matchup, Larry Nance was so slender coming out of college he was playing SF, not PG and certainly not center (on the bench, Steve Johnson, however, was playing mainly center if I remember right). This gives the 76ers a big advantage inside. Will give a full analysis in a bit but that comes first.

__________________
If you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk

RollWithEm

I’d like to make one of my nice charts for each match-up with all of the stats, but I fear that I won’t have the time to get it formatted up to my standards. Instead, I will try to provide pertinent information on the less known players in the seasons I considered.

I know Larry Nance is no center, but that team just doesn’t have any size. Instead of putting Schayes or Johnson or some other undeserving starter into the starting line-up, I just decided to go with a small line-up to run with Isaiah.

1981
D Schayes – 1988 – 64.0 TS%, 18.4 PER, 16.1 Rb Rate
S Johnson – 1983 – 62.9 TS%, 18.1 PER, 13.9 Rb Rate, 17.8 TO Rate *
K Tripucka – 1983 – 56.5 TS%, 19.8 PER, 13.3 Ast Rate, 6.1 Rb Rate
E Johnson – 1989 – 56.4 TS%, 19.4 PER, 8.0 Rb Rate
* I had to stoop low to find a quality big man in this draft class.

1976
J Lucas – 1984 – 45.3 Ast Rate, 18.1 PER
M Kupchak – 1979 – 58.8 TS%, 13.6 Rb Rate, 19.4 PER
S Parker – 1978 - 54.4 TS%, 13.6 Ast Rate, 9.5 Rb Rate
S May – 1981 - 54.9 TS%, 10.8 Rb Rate
L Shelton – 1978 - 54.9 TS%, 12.7 Ast Rate, 12.9 Rb Rate
J Davis – 1983 - 52.1 TS%, 29.0 Ast Rate

My analysis will follow soon.

__________________
But that's just me.

kflo

i think the '81 team is a better collection of overall talent. they have size issues, but the '76 team has shooting issues. the '81 team can space the floor better and can run more. i'd start dj over lucas on the '76 team - just a better overall player. starting lineups compete talent-wise, but i just don't like the offensive makeup of the '76 team. throw a sg who can spread the floor in there, and they'd be looking better.

BadBaronRudigor

You are right on the money about DJ, but over one of the forwards. Adding DJ gives you a great defensive stopper and excellent passing combo guard next to Lucas who was a ROY and all-star candidate before the drug issues. Lucas also gives the 76 team another excellent outside shooter. On the 81 squad, Buck Williams has to start over someone, he's the only physical guy on the squad and at his peak was the best guy on that team except for Isiah. I'd play him over Chambers to have Chambers's explosiveness off the bench . . . a starting lineup with Isiah and Aquirre hardly needs another gunner.

I'd still take the '76 team. Parish dominates anyone who the 81 team tries to put inside; Buck would have to play center, I loved Larry Nance but he wasn't able to defend the big post guys that well (think Shawn Marion)and Chambers and Aguirre never defended anyone. Lucas and DJ can hold their own with Isiah and Blackman; they give up a little scoring but make it back with superior playmaking and shooting range. Dantley gives the team a great primary scorer, English a great 6th man who played the 2,3,and 4. The weakest spot is Kupchak/May at PF. Kupchak was a terrific 6th man but his knees gave out before he got a chance to start; May was a polished starter but more a finesse player, the combo should be good enough.

__________________
If you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk

PauloCatarino

I think the 81 squad wins this pretty easily. That is, if you exchange Chambers for Buck as the starting PF.
Reasons: The 76'ers have no floor leader; they have no scorer off the bench; they are weak on defense.

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kflo

blackman and isiah were much (much) better shooting backcourt than lucas and dj. lucas wasn't that good of an outside shooter. and isiah was the best playmaker of the bunch.

and nance was a tougher interior defender than marion. he is 6'11. parish certainly has a big advantage in the middle though.

BadBaronRudigor

Blackman was an terrific midrange shooter but he rarely extended it. Lucas had great shooting range and playmaking skills, I think you underestimate him though he wasn't Isiah Thomas (more Baron Davis but headier and less strong) and DJ had quite a bit better playmaking skills than Blackman. As for Nance, he really didn't have a great base, he could get pushed down for position in the post, Marion is shorter but stronger and more able to hold ground. That's why I think of Nance as a SF despite his height and think he had his best years playing SF for Phoenix.

__________________
If you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk

BadBaronRudigor

Lucas, before the drugs was a terrific floor leader; he had incredible issues but his passing and heady play weren't among them. For that matter DJ was the point guard for some pretty impressive teams in Boston. As for having no scorer off the bench, the 76ers have either Adrian Dantley or HOF Alex English coming off the bench . . . no scorer? sheesh!

__________________
If you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk

PauloCatarino