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RollWithEm · 04-14-2008, 09:11 AM

Posters like Najee have questioned my methods for picking the draft class teams in previous threads. In response to their concerns, I will post both the statistically-chosen teams and the teams I would pick if I were using all factors available including my own opinions. So here is the 1/8 Match-Up from the Jay Williams region:

(1) 1999
G Steve Francis
G Manu Ginobili
F Shawn Marion
F Andrei Kirilenko
F Elton Brand
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G Baron Davis
G Jason Terry
G Andre Miller
F Corey Maggette
F Ron Artest
F Lamar Odom
F James Posey

Statistically, Jeff Foster had the best season of any center in this draft class. That leaves them quite thin down low. I would definitely try to address that problem. If I were picking the team, I would choose:

PG Baron Davis
SG Manu Ginobili
SF Shawn Marion
PF Elton Brand
C Jeff Foster
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G Andre Miller
G Jason Terry
G Rip Hamilton
F Ron Artest
F Lamar Odom
F Andrei Kirilenko
C Francisco Elson

Notice that I opted out of having Steve Francis on the team despite his gaudy statistical production early in his career. I think Baron Davis and the team’s overall lack of size and of outside shooting makes Francis expendable. I also made a tough call leaving James Posey off the team. I thought the desperate need for size far outweighed the need for an extra perimeter defender, given that Artest and Marion can both defend big guards when necessary.

Let me just be clear in saying that the statistics do not back up these decisions. Steve Francis had easily the most statistically-successful season of any PG in the 1999 draft. If anyone were to include him on their team, I would have no real way to argue his inclusion. I just think Andre Miller and Jason Terry would both be more valuable for this particular team given their unique skills. This team already has enough of the athleticism and scoring that Steve Francis gives you.

Also, Rip Hamilton’s inclusion on the team over Corey Maggette flies in the face of statistics. I just think that Hamilton’s pesky defense and consistent midrange game would help this team more than Maggette’s ability to finish at the rim and get to the foul line.

Even more egregious, perhaps, is my choice of Francisco Elson. This team obviously lacks size, but why would I pick Elson over Kenny Thomas, Todd MacCulloch, Calvin Booth, or Michael Ruffin? Thomas is too small. He’s like a homeless man’s Elton Brand. This team already includes Brand. MacCulloch was a surprisingly effective player when healthy, but he could never find a way to stay on the floor. He wasn’t included because he was a little more plodding and deliberate. This team is going to get out and run. Booth and Ruffin are both a little too unskilled for this type of competition. I chose Elson because he’s mobile, because he’s a good defender, and because he knows how to fit in on a team full of stars. All-in-all this is a pretty well-wounded team.

VS.

(8) 2000
G Speedy Claxton
G Michael Redd
F Mike Miller
F Kenyon Martin
C Jamaal Magliore
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G Hedo Turkoglu
G Quentin Richardson
G Jamal Crawford
G Jason Hart
F Darius Miles
F Stromile Swift
C Etan Thomas

This team has an overall lack of size and playmaking ability. That’s probably why they’re an 8th seed. Here’s what my team would look like if I were picking them based on all factors:

PG Speedy Claxton
SG Michael Redd
SF Mike Miller
PF Kenyon Martin
C Jamaal Magliore
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G Marko Jaric
G Hedo Turkoglu
G Jamal Crawford
F Morris Peterson
F Darius Miles
F Etan Thomas
C Joel Przybilla

Picking this team is very hard. This draft had a lot of busts. The best true points in this draft class’ last year in college were Mateen Cleaves, Khalid El-Amin, and Erick Barkley. Unfortunately for them, Cleaves’ and Barkley’s lack of outside shooting and El-Amin’s size kept them from sticking in the league. This draft looked like it was stacked at PG on draft night, but only Claxton, Dooling, Jaric, and Hart really became rotation players in the NBA. I chose Claxton and Jaric, but you can pretty much interchange Dooling and/or Hart for them without much improvement or drop-off.

At the wing positions, Darius Miles, DerMarr Johnson, and Courtney Alexander were the main busts. I decided to include Miles on this team anyway because he had a couple of competent offensive seasons, and that’s more than I can say about some of the other guys in this draft. I went with Mo Pete over Q for his defense and efficiency.

At the PF spot, Stromile Swift, Marcus Fizer, and Jerome Moiso all have grossly underperformed at the NBA level. I picked Etan Thomas over Stromile Swift because Swift doesn’t bring a single thing to the table that you can’t get from Kenyon Martin. Thomas brings this team some size and defensive intensity off the pine.

This draft has an absolute dearth of quality centers. I went with Magliore and Przybilla because my other options were Mihm and Madsen. If I were to include another wing player like DeShawn Stevenson instead of Przybilla, this team would struggle mightily to rebound the basketball.

I hope that my logic for picking these teams is a little clearer now than it was in the past. Who do you think will win?

Najee · 04-14-2008, 09:40 AM

You're right about one thing: You are about the only person I know who would take Francisco Elson on your Class of '99 team over Steve Francis -- which, quite frankly, would be a certifiably insane decision. The talent and production gap between Francis and Elson is so large that there is no way you could justify taking Elson.

Given the depth of this class and the fact there really is no quality big man in that group, just go with the best 12 players. I personally would pick this group:

PG: Baron Davis
SG: Rip Hamilton
SF: Shawn Marion
PF: Lamar Odom
C: Elton Brand

BENCH: Ron Artest, Steve Francis, Manu Ginobili, Andrei Kirilenko, Corey Maggette, Andre Miller, Jason Terry.

Yeah, it's an undersized group. But people forget that Brand is perennially one of the league's top rebounders (10.6, sixth among active players) and shot-blockers (2.1, 9th). He's a better option than players like Elson and Jeff Foster at this position, and certainly better than what the Class of 2000 can offer.

With Odom and Marion at forwards, you have a pair of exceptional rebounders (Marion's career average of 10.1 is seventh among active players; Odom's 8.9 is 10th) who can score. Marion is an above-average defender who also is a great shot-blocker for a small forward (career average: 1.3 per game) and is third among active players in steals per game (1.9). Odom is an exceptional ball-handler and passer (career average of 4.4 assists per game) for a 6-foot-10 player.

And before his game went into the toilet, Francis was an exceptional rebounder from the point guard slot (career average: 5.4 rebounds per game, to go with 18.1 points and 6 assists), while Davis is not too shabby in that department (4.1). With Davis, Francis, Miller and Terry coupled with Odom, this should be a good passing and transition team.

Ginobili has been coming off the bench for San Antonio for the past two seasons, so I would apply that here by starting Hamilton and making Ginobili my sixth man. With Brand, Marion, Artest and Kirilenko, you have the core for a very good defensive team. Davis has led the NBA in steals per game twice and is second in that category this season. Terry and Francis can man both guard positions.

And to put it bluntly, the Class of '99 team will beat the Class of 2000 team so badly that Social Services would have to intervene. The 2000 draft was one of the worst drafts in modern NBA history (the only one that is close is the Class of 1971). I would make one tweak with the group and start Jamal Crawford (a starting combo guard) at point guard over Speedy Claxton (a career backup), but it's not going to make a difference because the '99 crew has so much better talent and depth.

FINAL SCORE: Class of '99 130, Class of 2000 82.

Najee · 04-14-2008, 11:32 AM

Also, I don't know what is the statistical basis for having James Posey over Rip Hamilton (who was on RollWithEm's opinion-based team), but I don't see how on a statistical basis Posey would be on the team and not Rip. Since most stats are offensive based, Rip should have Posey beat there. I know Posey is an above average defender, but it's not like it's a decided weakness of Hamilton's, either.

BadBaronRudigor · 04-14-2008, 11:57 AM

Well, whichever way you pick them, any team starting Speedy Claxton and Jamal Magloire is going to have a tough time at this level of competition. Add in the fact that Kenyon Martin is the closest thing to a two way star and 2000 gets its tail waxed pretty easily, whichever way you go in 1999.

Najee · 04-14-2008, 01:24 PM

I agree. The Class of '99 is one of the best classes of the past 20 years, while the Class of 2000 is arguably the worst draft crop in modern NBA history (IMO, "modern NBA history" started with the 1969-70 season). I can't see any scenario where this game is not a rout.

FreshCo · 04-14-2008, 04:39 PM

99 by far

RollWithEm · 04-15-2008, 05:53 AM

Alright, here's the thing I must confess about Steve Francis v. Foster/Elson: I cheated and looked to the next couple rounds. This one-seeded team is probably going to need some size (desperately) as they move forward in this tournament. In retrospect, I probably shouldn't have done that since no one else has the benefit of seeing the other match-ups. Also, the talent gap between Francis and Foster/Elson is pretty significant. I guess I over-reacted. Still, I would keep Foster because this team will need him for offensive rebounding and dirty work.

Now, Najee asked for a scenario where this game would not be a rout. What if Coach K convinced Brand, Avery, and Maggette to stay in school another year for a shot at the title? That would seriously bolster the 2000 squad, and I think Avery would've had a better shot of making it in the league with one more year in the ACC. I think 1999 still wins, but not by as much. Also, this would not be a 1/8 match-up in that scenario. It would quickly become something more like a 2/7 or even a 3/6.

Also, Najee asked why Posey made the team statistically over Rip. Actually, their best season were pretty similar in terms of % rates, efficiency, and raw production per minute. All other things being equal, Posey got in because his defensive ratings are better (albeit slightly). It was a close call, though.

Najee · 04-15-2008, 12:56 PM

The only way the Class of 2000 wins, RollWithEm, is if the underclassmen in the Class of '99 stayed in school for one more season and then were on the Class of 2000 team.

IMO, the Class of '99 has consistent, quality depth -- with the 12-man team I named, there really is no drop-off on the roster from the starting five to the No. 12 man. However, the team I named will have two problems: lack of size (Elton Brand is the only big man on the roster) and no true dominant player (it's a team of solid to borderline All-Stars).

BTW, my favorite to win the whole shooting match is the Class of '84.

RollWithEm · 04-15-2008, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Najee

BTW, my favorite to win the whole shooting match is the Class of '84.

While I agree that they are the favorites subjectively, the 1996 team is the overall number 1 seed by a long shot.

Najee · 04-15-2008, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RollWithEm

While I agree that they are the favorites subjectively, the 1996 team is the overall number 1 seed by a long shot.

I don't know if I agree with that, because you will have a team with Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant and Antoine Walker all competing for shots -- and plenty of them. I think it's a team that has too many guards to play (Steve Nash and Ray Allen are also on that team) and I don't think I like the idea of Jermaine O'Neal and Marcus Camby going head-to-head with Hakeem Olajuwon and Charles Barkley.

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