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Old 09-03-2005, 08:54 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Reference: Advanced Statistics and Formulas

This thread will outline, explain, and analyze advanced statistics.

Shooting


eFG% (effective field goal percentage): [FGM + .5 (3PM)] / FG

This statistics goes a step beyond regular field goal percentage by counting three-pointers as 1.5 field goals made, thus creating a more accurate representation of shooting ability than regular field goal percentage. For example, Ray Allen shot a field goal percentage of .428 which isn't very impressive, but considering he attempted, and made, a lot of three-pointers, his eFG% is .498.

Scoring

TS% (true shooting percentage): Pts / 2 [(FGA) + (.44 * FTA)]

This statistic also goes beyond regular field goal percentage by factoring in scoring efficiency. By including free-throw attempts, TS% can measure how efficient a scorer is. Because it uses a numerator of total points, this type of scoring efficiency percentage gives a very accurate view of how good of a scorer a player is. PSA (points per shot attempt) is TS% doubled.

General Efficiency

John Hollinger's PER (player efficiency rating).

Note that PER doesn't really account for defensive stops so it should only be used for evaluating the offensive aspect of a players' game. It is a useful statistic, though.

How to calculate PER.

Rebounding

RbR (rebound rate): [TRB (Team MP / 5)] / [MP (Team TRB + Opp TRB)] * 100

Rebound Rate accounts for the amount of missed shots a player rebounds while he is on the floor. This gives a better view at how good a player is at rebounding than normal per game or Per 48 rebounding statistics.

To see how well a team rebounds:

Quote:
At the team level, rebound percentage takes into account the fact that good teams usually outrebound their opponents because defensive rebounds are easier to get than offensive rebounds. The total team rebounding percentage is the average of its offensive and defensive rebounding percentages.
Quote:
Team OReb% = TmOReb / (TmOReb + OppDReb)
Team DReb% = TmDReb/ (TmDReb + OppOReb
Team Reb% = (Team OReb% + Team DReb%)/2


Player rebounding percentage can also be split into offensive and defensive rebounding, which can prove insightful because few players are equally adept at both. At the team level, there is actually surprisingly little relationship between offensive and defensive rebounding, probably because offensive rebounding depends heavily on whether the coach chooses to crash the boards or play back to prevent fast breaks.


Ball Handling

Usage Rate: 40 * (League Pace / Team Pace) * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + 0.33 * AST + TO) / MP).

Usage rate estimates the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes played. A measure of the possessions a player uses in the offense. All discussions comparing turnovers and assists need to take usage into account. For example, from a per game perspective, Michael Jordan seemingly had a good deal of turnovers, but when you look at his usage rates, his ability to not turn over the ball and yet use a third of his team's possessions is amazing.

Team Statistics

Possessions: FGA + .4 * (FTA) - 1.07 * [ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)] * (FGA - FG) + TO

The number of possessions a team has per game, which becomes very useful in efficiency statistics as shown in the next too statistics. Possessions, although it may seem very complicated, is a simple advanced (for the lack of a better phrase) statistic.

Offensive efficiency: 100 * (Team Points / Team Poss)

Offensive efficiency is an estimate of the number of points scored per 100 possessions. A very simple statistic that measures a team's offensive efficiency by calculating the number of points a team scores for each possessions generally multiplied over 100 possessions.

Defensive efficiency: 100 * (Opp PTS / Opp Poss)

Defensive efficiency is an estimate of the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. A very simple statistic that measures a team's defensive efficiency by calculating the number of points a team gives upfor each possessions generally multiplied over 100 possessions.

Pace: 48 * [ (Team Poss + Opponents Poss) / [2 *(Team MP / 5)] ]

Pace factor is an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team and its opponents. Pace estimates how fast a game is played and explains why certain fast-break teams seem to always be involved in high scoring games. If each team is given more possessions, they will likely score more points and pace measures this.

* Recognition to MongolainDeathCloud for suggestions/descriptions.
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Last edited by Premier : 07-05-2006 at 06:36 AM.
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Old 09-03-2005, 08:59 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Reference: Advanced Statistics and Formulas

Quote:
Originally Posted by Premier
Scoring

TS% (true shooting percentage): Pts / [ 2(FGA) + (.44*FTA)]

This statistic also goes beyond regular field goal percentage by factoring in scoring efficiency. By including free-throw attempts, TS% can measure how efficient a scorer is. Because it uses a numerator of total points, this type of scoring efficiency percentage gives a very accurate view of how good of a scorer a player is. PSA (points per shot attempt) is TS% doubled.
The 2 in the denominator...that multiplies the entire denominator, right? Not just the FGAs? Or is it just the FGA's (because that's how you have it now, but it doesn't make sense with your last statement)?

I'm such a nerd...
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Old 09-03-2005, 09:10 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Reference: Advanced Statistics and Formulas

Yeah, I'll fix it now.
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Old 09-29-2005, 06:49 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Reference: Advanced Statistics and Formulas

Updated to include some team efficiency statistics.

Feel free to post any others in this thread.
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Old 11-02-2005, 07:51 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Reference: Advanced Statistics and Formulas

Quote:
Originally Posted by Premier
Scoring

TS% (true shooting percentage): Pts / 2 [(FGA) + (.44*FTA)]

This statistic also goes beyond regular field goal percentage by factoring in scoring efficiency. By including free-throw attempts, TS% can measure how efficient a scorer is. Because it uses a numerator of total points, this type of scoring efficiency percentage gives a very accurate view of how good of a scorer a player is. PSA (points per shot attempt) is TS% doubled.
About the underlined part, is this somehow concluded from the average of how FTs are achieved?

e.g.

Player A : 8-10 FG; 6-8 FT; 22 PTS
Player B : 8-10 FG; 6-8 FT; 22 PTS

Player A got 5 of his FT from +1, hit 1 technical FT and 2 FT "normally" = he used 11 possesions for his 22 points

Player B got all his FT "normally" = he used 14 possesions for his 22 points

While this example might be extreme, and keeping stats about how FT are achieved is a big task, I think it could still be interesting. At the end of games most of the times Guards tend to be fouled, but they usually get to shoot the technicals, too. It would certainly benefit players who are able to convert their FGA despite being "disturbed" by a foul.
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Old 11-02-2005, 10:04 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Reference: Advanced Statistics and Formulas

Yes.

Dean Oliver, through his research, concluded that 88% of free throws are due to two-shot fouls.
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