Jizzy

K.

Al Jefferson
Paul Milsapp
Varejao
Josh Smith
David West
Boris Diaw
Travis Outlaw
Brian Cook
Bostjan
Krstic
Prince
Gadzuric
Boozer
Songaila
Randolph
Wallace
Magloire
Foster
Kenny Thomas
Kirilenko
Elson
Mcullogh
Al Harrington
Rashrd Lewis

Couple of late first, second rounders.



Big men shouldn't be counted out just becuase they were drafted later on. Shouldn't you know this? You were a tad high on Boone, just a tad.

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Here is something you can't understand

HB

Only if you get caught

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cpawfan

Jizzy, take the SF's out of your list

Prince, Outlaw, Lewis, etc

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Jizzy

You CAN play those guys at the 4 depending on matchups so we'll just consider them psuedo bigs.

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Dumpy

Do you not understand my point? Some of those players you list were high school players, who were long-term prospects, and I am only talking about players that contributed within the first 2-3 years of their career. For that matter, Boki has been terrible until now, and is no longer on his rookie contract, so I don't count him as a success. second, the number of players you list pales next to the number of actual bigs that were drafted outside of the lottery. I'm not saying that successes never happen, just that the probability is low. I also don't consider Josh Smith a "big."

Boone proved that, when given a chance to play at least ten minutes a game, that he could contribute just fine.

For the heck of it, let's look at a random year--how about 2004, which I'm pulling out of my ***.

15. Al Jefferson. Success
16. Kirk Snyder (SG)
17. Josh Smith (SF)
18. JR Smith (SG)
19. Dorell Wright (SF)
20. Jameer Nelson (PG)
21. Pavel Podzolzine: Bust
22. Viktr Khryapa: Bust
23. Sergei Monia (SF?)
24. Delonte West (PG)
25. Tony Allen (SG)
26. Kevin Martin (SG)
27. Sasha Vujacic (SG)
28. Beno Udrih (PG)
29. --
30. David Harrison: Bust
31. Anderson Varejao: Averaged under 5 PPG and 5 RPG his first two years, so by my criteria he is not a success, although he may become one in real terms. Certainly no more of a success than, say Boone in his first two years. At least he will continue to be an NBA player after his rookie contract is up, and that's something.
32. Jackson Vroman: Bust
33. Peter Ramos: bust
34. Lionel Chalmers (PG)
35. Donta Smith (SF)
36. Andre Emmett (SG)
37. Antonio Burks (PG)
38. Royal Ivey (PG)
39. Chris Duhon (PG)
40. Albert Miralles: Bust
41. Justin Reed (SF)
let's just skip to the other bigs in the draft:
47. Ha Seung-Jin: Bust
48. Pape Sow: Bust
50. Sergey Lishchuk: Bust
57. Marcus Douhit: bust
58. Sergei Karaulov: Bust

So, let's see, 13 bigs were drafted outside the lottery. there was one true success--taken in the FIRST post-lottery pick. There was one additinal guy who, while I don't think was a success, I wouldn't classify him as a bust, either--a decent contributor (varejao). That leaves 11 busts.

Do you want to tackle another year?

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jirohkanzaki

mcroberts it is!

Dumpy

How about 2003?

(just listing the big men)

17. Zarko Cabarkapa: Wasn't horrible in limited minutes, but I think he's out of the league now? so I'll say Bust
18. David West: Success
24. Brian Cook: Not a true success, but not a total failure
26. Ndudi Ebi: Bust
27. Kendrick Perkins: Bust for my purposes
30. Maciej Lampe: Bust
33. Jerome Beasley: Bust
34. Sofoklis Schortsanitis: Bust
35. Szymon Szewczyk: Bust
36. Mario Austin: Bust
39. Slavko Vranes: Bust
42. Zaur Pachulia: Bust
44. Malick Badiane: Bust
45: Matt Bonner: Unexpected second-round success
48. james Lang: Bust
52. remon Van de Hare: Bust
54. Nedzad Sinanovic: Bust
55. Rick Rickert: Bust
56. Brandon Hunter: Bust
57: Zue Yuyang: Bust
58: Andreas Glyniadakis: Bust

David west was the big success, Bonner was a true contributor, and Caparkapa and Cook were at about replacement-level guys. As I've said, I'm not interested in counting long-term projects; I want players that can contribute within the first couple of years of their career, so i won't count Perkins (who has yet to contribute). That's about right among 21 bigs selected.

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kconn61686

how is schortsianitis a bust? he hasnt even gotten the chance to prove himself in the league yet

HB

Ditto

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Jizzy

Cmon now. You're calling every second round pick a bust if they don't make it in the league? You should expect something from a bust, not just name every second rounder to not stick a bust.

Let me just clear something here, basically you said that late first and second rounders are not contributors for NBA teams, correct?

How the heck are Pachulia, Cook, Varejao and Perkins not success'?

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Dumpy

How about 2002:

18. Curtis Borchardt: Bust
24. Nenad Krstic: Success
32. Robert Archibald: Bust
34. Dan Gadzuric: Not a true success, but not a failure, since he's still in the league. He's just averaged 5 PPG and 5 RPG in his career.
35. Carlos Boozer: Success
37. David Anderson: Bust
41. Mario Kasun: Bust
43. Jason Jennings: Bust
44. Lonny Baxter: Bust
45. Sam Clancy: bust
47. Jamal Sampson: Bust
48. Chris Owens: Bust
49: Peter Fehse: Bust
50: darius Songalia: Moderate success
56: Luis Scola: Bust, regardless of what his future holds
58: Corsley Edwards: Bust

Two real successes, two bench rotation guys among 16 picks. And, remember, Krstic's success is tempered by the fact that he was sent back to Europe--he wasn't immediate help.

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Dumpy

My criteria in this exercise is whether the player drafted contributed to the team within a relatively short time period--in other words, you didn't have to wait five years for the player to develop or be brought over from Europe.

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cpawfan

You might want to recheck that

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...pachuza01.html

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