The Kobe Bryant situation has been quiet for almost two weeks now, ever since Bryant and owner Jerry Buss spoke on the telephone and Buss released a statement expressing his desire to keep Bryant in a Lakers uniform.
Since Buss is now vacationing in China and is not due back for another week or so, expect things to stay quiet for a while longer.
One thing to keep in mind as this thing bubbles beneath the surface: Nobody except Buss and Bryant knows exactly what was said on their phone call, but a day earlier Buss had responded to Bryant's formal trade request -- which was made to general manager Mitch Kupchak by agent Rob Pelinka -- by issuing a public statement essentially saying he wanted to hear those words come out of Kobe's mouth.
So we don't really know with 100 percent certainty whether in his heart of hearts Bryant does or doesn't want out, although I'm hearing the formal trade request remains on the table.
Now, if that trade request ever turns into a trade demand, there's a good case to be made that Kobe will end up with either the New York Knicks or Chicago Bulls.
Here's why, and how.
If Kobe really, truly wants out, the Lakers have almost no choice but to grant his wish.
Yes, they could play hardball with him and make him hold out when training camp arrives, but Kobe would then be holding the entire franchise hostage while he waited them out. He's the league's preeminent superstar, and he's not going to be pushed around.
He's also about as stubborn a person as the NBA has ever seen. Sometimes it serves him well, sometimes it doesn't. But he's stubborn. And if Jerry Buss plays poker against Kobe, he loses. And Jerry knows it.
"If I'm Mitch Kupchak, I'm looking right now to see where my leverage would be, and I'm not finding any," one NBA general manager told me.
A holdout would cost Bryant a lot of money and would be ruinous to all the image rehabilitation he's accomplished over the past year, but he'd make up for the financial loss many times over through his 15 percent trade kicker, and his image, as we've seen, is reparable no matter how bad things get.
So here's the next big thing: Kobe's no-trade clause.
Because Kobe can veto any trade, he can dictate where the Lakers must trade him by giving them a list of acceptable destinations. That is the power of the no-trade clause, and Kobe is the only guy in the league who has one.
Next you would look at where he might want to go -- and where the Lakers could accommodate him while still helping themselves.
I don't think Buss could live with trading Kobe to a Western Conference team and having him come into Staples to face the Lakers twice a year (and two times more to face the Clippers, plus, potentially, another set of visits in a playoff series vs. the Lakers), so I'm excising all West teams from my list of possibilities.
So we move to the East, and we look at where Kobe might want to play.
Philadelphia: One thought is Philly, because Kobe wants more than anything to be loved, and nowhere is he hated more than in his hometown (and nowhere would he be greeted as more of a hero). The problem is, it would take a minimum of Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala to get Kobe, and that would leave the Sixers with next to nothing other than Kobe. They've been down that path with Iverson, and anyway Kobe wants to win a championship.
Miami: Forget it. Not unless the Heat are giving up Dwyane Wade, which they aren't.
Atlanta: Too young. Years away from contending. Too far off the national radar.
Detroit: You never say never, especially after they looked old and done against Cleveland, but the market-size dropoff would be a problem for Kobe.
Boston: For Paul Pierce? Maybe, but they would still be far from a championship-level team, even with Bryant.
Chicago: This is the team I hear as one of the strongest possibilities, although its questionable whether John Paxson would be willing to gut the core of his team to get Bryant.
Paxson would probably have to start with Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, and perhaps Chris Duhon, and he would probably have to include a signed-and-traded Andres Nocioni or P.J. Brown to make the salaries work.
That would be an enormous amount for Paxson to surrender, especially given the way he has shaped the team's salary structure for the next 3-4 years.
New York: If Chicago is one of the logical places for Bryant to end up, that raises the question of which team could make a competing offer. That's where Knicks coach and president Isiah Thomas would come in.
I've known Isiah a long time, so trust me when I tell you he would go to the end of the earth and do whatever it takes to get a deal like this done. He wants his legacy to be something special in New York, and Kobe Bryant could help assure that. Furthermore, Bryant has previously expressed interest in lighting up Gotham.
As a trade partner, what the Knicks lack in quality, they have in quantity. In terms of volume, Isiah could overwhelm almost any other offer out there, starting with combo guard Jamal Crawford, rebounding machine David Lee, Knicks starting power forward Channing Frye, a pair of unprotected No. 1 picks (let's say 2008 and 2010) and sundry throw-ins, including Nate Robinson, Randolph Morris, Renaldo Balkman, et al.
Crawford is a guy who can score 20 points a night, and he'll go prolific for you at least twice a month. Lee is a double-double man, and the most popular player on the Knicks, an energy guy who will easily play in the league for 10 more years if he stays healthy. He's far from a bum, and the same goes for Frye, who could start for the Lakers for the next seven seasons.
No, there's no superstar in here, but it's a lot of lumber. And if you're rebuilding, you need a cache of young talent. Lee, Frye and Robinson are still on their rookie contracts. Crawford has a reasonable long-term deal ($7.9 next season, with a contract that ends after he makes $10.08 million in 2010-11). The Lakers would actually have cap space, lots of it, after Lamar Odom's contract ends in the summer of '09.
Nothing, however, will happen unless Kobe forces Buss' hand. That hasn't happened yet, and it still might not happen if the Lakers can make a major deal to put some new talent around Kobe and placate him. Certainly we've all heard about the possibility of Jermaine O'Neal and/or other players joining Bryant in L.A.
But if that doesn't happen, I wouldn't be surprised if Kobe pipes up publicly again, this time demanding -- not requesting -- a trade.
And if that happens, I think he'll end up in Chicago or New York.
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ESPN Insider-Kobe to Knicks? Could happen: Chris Sheridan
