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More BCS realignment

143K views 1K replies 144 participants last post by  Medford 
#1 ·
It's being reported all over that the Big Ten is in the process of inviting Rutgers and the University of Maryland into the conference.

The invites could take place as early as Monday.

Speculation from there includes the idea that the ACC would invite UConn to take the place of UM.

Needless to say, that may be all she wrote for the Big East.
 
#425 ·
I believe that the new A-10 tv contract will generate about 350k per school annually.

The tv revenue that Big East schools currently get far exceeds that (A-10 amount) and in effect partly subsidizes their operations. A diminished hybrid league or basketball only league will see much less tv revenues and likely also hurt ticket revenues (loss of high profile opponents). The basketball onlies are not only looking at falling further behind the big boys (as they get ever more tv revenues) but instead are looking at getting less than they do now. This will in turn make it difficult just to maintain their programs at current levels. The thought that a Depaul or other basketball onlies will be able to invest big monies into infrastructure in the future will be an even more difficult prospect than now (and many have chosen not to do that to date).
 
#426 ·
Some very well thought out posts in this thread. The issue isn't just the money in the TV contract, though as Zagoria's source notes, the money is still better for the BB schools attached to a weakened BE than without football. The other big issues are their concern about potential losing the BE brand and access to MSG for the tournament. Beyond that no one knows when and in what manner the power conferences are going to act. given that uncertainty I think they're still some time off from making the decision to end their affiliation with FBS schools. I think in that regard the fact that UL was added to the ACC and not UConn, increased the BB members desire to remain attached to the FBS members somewhat. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a satisfactory contract in place that they add one or two BB members both to strengthen basketball quality and to lay the groundwork for a possible split in the future. But until the B1G and the SEC do something, everyone else is stuck in limbo.
 
#427 ·
I've read somewhere that Boise has an escape claus in their Big East contract that if TV revenues are split w/ less than 70% going to the football side, they can leave w/o penalty or a significantly reduced penalty. Same article said Houston has an escape clause if TV revenues fall below some expected level (can't recall if the threshold was listed or not).

If the boise contract report is true, you can all but garuntee the football side will be getting at a minimum 70%, and perhaps even more if its needed to satisify the football side of things to keep things together.

The Big East's current deal nets roughly $40 mil a year, IIRC. I'm no TV Exec, but lets say b/w all the departures, additions, uncertainty, etc... the total Big East TV deal nets $60 mil a season. $60 mil * 30% / 16 teams on the BBall side = $1.125 mil per team on the BBall side. What if they "only" get the $40 mil they're getting now? That's $750k. What if its less? The people at those schools aren't stupid, I have little doubt that somewhere along the lines, they've talked to TV execs and they have a basic idea of how much they could generate if the broke off independently (thru whatever means) and added a handful of teams. With the right combination teams (and we've debated that a ton)I have little doubt they could generate a TV contract north of the $350k the A-10 allegedly gets right now.

How close they could get to what they are being offered as part of the current Big East deal is going to be the end driving point. I'm sure somewhere out there, there's a plan for the BBall onlies, plus UConn, UC, Temple, Memphis, etc... with the football side finding a home elsewhere. The Bball only side had a chance to grab the reigns and drive the future of the conference. they let football drive everything, while watching the best football programs all leaving or hopefully of leaving for "greener pastures". how much is it going to cost to send the Volleyball and baseball teams to Houston, Dallas & New Orleans every year.

In short, the BBall only side likely has a good idea of what a BBall only conference is worth, they probably have a good idea at this point w/ the current makeup of the Big East moving forward is worth. For better or worse, they appear to be holding on to the football side for now.
 
#430 ·
I've read somewhere that Boise has an escape claus in their Big East contract that if TV revenues are split w/ less than 70% going to the football side, they can leave w/o penalty or a significantly reduced penalty. Same article said Houston has an escape clause if TV revenues fall below some expected level (can't recall if the threshold was listed or not).

If the boise contract report is true, you can all but garuntee the football side will be getting at a minimum 70%, and perhaps even more if its needed to satisify the football side of things to keep things together.

The Big East's current deal nets roughly $40 mil a year, IIRC. I'm no TV Exec, but lets say b/w all the departures, additions, uncertainty, etc... the total Big East TV deal nets $60 mil a season. $60 mil * 30% / 16 teams on the BBall side = $1.125 mil per team on the BBall side. What if they "only" get the $40 mil they're getting now? That's $750k. What if its less? The people at those schools aren't stupid, I have little doubt that somewhere along the lines, they've talked to TV execs and they have a basic idea of how much they could generate if the broke off independently (thru whatever means) and added a handful of teams. With the right combination teams (and we've debated that a ton)I have little doubt they could generate a TV contract north of the $350k the A-10 allegedly gets right now.
I have no doubt that the BE basketball onlies could likely command a bigger tv contract that would net them more than the A-10 350k/ school annually. I would think that number however would be much closer to the A-10's figure and is likely to be substantially less than they currently get and be far what the new super conference teams will get.

Another item to consider is the automatic NCAA bid. If the Big East is dissolved, I believe that they would lose their automatic NCAA bid. I woudl think that there would be at large worthy teams from their league, but there would be no automatic bid for several years. This can hurt a league. Just consider the times when an A-10 team won our tourney and got an unexpected bid adding the number of teams from the league (think SBU last year).
 
#428 ·
Well done, Medford!

I say let the BE BB boys stew in their own juices. As more and more of their recognizable FB schools leave, their TV contract specs will be scaled downward. The BB-7 will need us more than we need them to achieve the elite level. But there is no denying that both they and we have some heavy "ballast" that would prevent a total amalgamation of the two from becoming what was so exciting about the Big East When everyone looked forward to watching the Monday Night Big East games on ESPN and before it added FB to the menu.

As this whole thing plays out, more and more fans of the supposed "have" programs of the Basketball Centric Conferences are realizing that their former dreams of teaming with the BE BB schools to form a new Conference or a new Big East is losing much of its appeal. Many are now saying that the risks of doing so don't outweigh the successes of their current situations.
 
#429 ·
It might seem the BB only schools have voting leverage for some period of time, but I wonder if new BE members (not yet playing football in the league) got a vote when they were accepted? After all, decisions made between the two different dates would affect their future.
 
#433 ·
http://sulia.com/channel/college-football/f/545c31f8-b6b3-4cd7-b2d6-1f5f467c2c94/?source=twitter

GT/UVA
On Friday I tweeted a report about Georgia Tech and Virginia, which turned out to be inaccurate -- for the time being. I can only offer my apologies to the people I misled. Changes in the ACC are on the cusp of fruition, but today is not that day.

The reality is that NCAA conference realignment is one of the more complex issues today in sports. Powerful people inside various universities have certain agendas. My sources, no matter how influential and credible they may be, indeed were not enough to run with a story of this magnitude. I found out the hard way.

I vow to not be defined by this error in judgment and look forward to interacting with all of you through various media platforms.
 
#438 ·
I agree the new tv contract is the elephant in the room for the BE bb onlies. Even if their share were to drop from the current 1.56M they're getting, I don't believe it would get anywhere near what the new A-10 contract is paying. I am sure the entire BE Conference would like the new tv contract finalized it may be of greater importance to the bb onlies to have it resolved while they hold the voting majority. As others have mentioned, going forward the onlies are most likely to see a drop in attendance. While UCF, SMU and Houston MAY become very good programs they are not on the same plane as the programs that are leaving. That is certainly going to have an adverse economic impact on those onlies who rent off campus arenas. Seton Hall plays its home games in the state of the art arena called the Rock. I may be wrong but I believe their fee is at least 75K everytime the Rock opens its doors for a SHU game. Couple that with the fact that a curtain is drawn around most if not all of the upper deck even for games against Louisville, Syracuse and UCONN, and its apparent they can ill afford much if any drop in revenues be it from tv monies or ticket sales.
 
#441 ·
That is one reason of many that ESPN let the BE walk after the exclusive rights period expired...
You can conclude that ESPN is probably not going to be there for the BE, so what channel? Fox? NBC?

A lot less money is coming to those bball schools unless they are able to snag a good football school and that doesnt look to be happening.. Only the other way around..

Someone posted a great financially detailed breakdown of the projected finances coming to those basketball schools. In conclusion, it doesn't look good for either scenario the create their own conference or stay under the BE umbrella. Lucky to get more than $500k per basketball, probably less.
 
#445 ·
Also, in more realignment news:

Reports are that the MAAC is in talks with Monmouth and Quinnipiac (both of the NEC) to invite them.
MAAC meetings and expected vote is December 14.

The MAAC is losing Loyola MD to the Patriot, so they'd be down to nine members Monmouth (? odd pick) and Quinnipiac (very smart pick) would make 11 teams.

I don't see why they wouldn't have gone with Quinnipiac, Stony Brook and other for 12. Then again, I'm not sure why the CAA didn't add Stony Brook as an all-sports member.
 
#447 ·
I don't see why they wouldn't have gone with Quinnipiac, Stony Brook and other for 12. Then again, I'm not sure why the CAA didn't add Stony Brook as an all-sports member.
I would think Stony Brook is looking for a better football option. Also, the MAAC is mostly smaller catholic schools...the other SBU isn't a great fit there (since the MAAC has the luxury of still looking at geographic and academic fits). Monmouth works pretty well.
 
#449 ·
That's true.

Stony Brook being public would be a factor.
But given the fluid nature of what's going on, I don't see why you wouldn't invite them. knowing that they improve the quality of all sports for your league.

I see Stony Brook to the MAAC like BYU moving to the WCC.

The WCC was originally hesitant because BYU is huge compared to their other schools; But they had research and data showing a decade of results and showed that: Yes, BYU is probably going to win the commission's cup because they are accross the board good in all sports; but they are NOT going to be across the board DOMINANT. They're going to be top four in each sport, but each sport has schools that are peers with BYU.

If Stony Brook joined the MAAC and competed in everything, but didn't dominate all the sports (their WBB team was pretty bad last year), you get the advantages of them winning and being good. For example, their College World Series appearance last season.

If Stony Brook joined the MAAC and simply crushed EVERYONE in EVERYTHING... Then they're probably getting invited to join the CAA within a few years. As a share-everything type of league, bringing the best basketball school you can get to try and get an at-large again is the smartest move you can make.

Plus, Quinnipiac, Stony Brook and Monmouth would really up the game of the rest of the MAAC as all three have new, $50 million+ basketball arenas.


Quinnipiac and Stony Brook "get it" (Monmouth might too). QU's private goal since about 2004 has been to build athletics and get into the Atlantic 10. Publically, they admitted “We do have high aspirations" but didn't name conferences.
That's all well and good, but how do you know Stony Brook wanted in? With everything moving around, Stony Brook may figure they can just wait for the CAA (or CUSA in a year or two).

As long as Bonaventure doesn't end up in the MAAC, I'm all good.
 
#451 ·
That's all well and good, but how do you know Stony Brook wanted in? With everything moving around, Stony Brook may figure they can just wait for the CAA (or CUSA in a year or two).

As long as Bonaventure doesn't end up in the MAAC, I'm all good.

#1 - The CAA has invited them for football only, but not all-sports.

#2 - The Am East has never had an at-large bid to the NCAA MBB Tournament, 20 total bids and four wins.
The MAAC has gotten an at-large bid, as recently as last season, 43 total bids and 16 wins.
 
#452 ·
Rutgers has taken the proactive approach and sued the Big East over the exits fees and presumably other items as well. An interesting aspect to their suit is their claim the BE has not collected exit fees from those schools who have already left WVU & TCU, and if they have collected any monies they had not been distributed to member schools.I'm sure the litigation is intended as a negotiating tool to perhaps speed up their departure, and lessen monies they may have to pay,
 
#460 ·
Save Xavier, I'm not sure that any A-10 school can feel totally good. From a Dayton perspective, what if they choose to go to 9 or 10 schools and felt like the Dayton-cincy overlap was too much to generate the TV dollars they could get out of adding, Butler, SLU & X? or Xavier, SLU & Richmond? or whatever other combo you want to throw out there.

Of course those teams that often get talked about have to ask themselves how much better would that conference be than the A-10 moving forward? How much more would the TV dollars be?
 
#456 ·
There seems to be a lot like posturing from the basketball schools. There is no scenario where they are better off financially by splitting off and starting a new basketball conference.

Of course, if it happens, I agree that it's bad for the schools left behind. As a VCU fan, I'd think worst case even if we were left behind we'd be in a better basketball conference than the CAA, so it's not as bad as the alternative.

Say the catholics take Xavier, Dayton, Butler and Saint Louis, neither Dayton or Saint Louis are regularly in the NCAA tournament at all. Xavier and Butler would be huge losses, but Butler is brand new anyway and has yet to play a game in this conference. X is the big kingpin that would be pretty much impossible to replace.

Either way, the chances of the basketball schools splitting off and poaching the A-10 are slim IMHO. I can see why they are extremely unhappy with the current state of affairs in the Big East however. There is little that is major about that conference from both a football and basketball perspective.

An A-10 with St. Joe's, VCU, UMass, Richmond, La Salle, Rhode Island, George Washington, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, and Fordham isn't the greatest basketball conference, but still decent. We'd also have plenty of leverage to get schools like George Mason which is a positive geographically for VCU and still better than the current CAA from our standpoint.

That is far from what I'd like to see, but as a worst-case scenario, it's not half-bad compared to being in the current CAA.
 
#463 ·
Apparently if the conference gets $80MM in television money (which is on the high side of what was being reported by CBS), then the basketball schools will actually see their television revenue drop.

Running a basketball program really isn't all that expensive. Xavier does it very well on A10 money, the Catholic schools in the BE could as well. They'll be seeing some very empty arenas while hosting SMU, Tulane, and some of the other mediocre to bad programs pulled into the Big East. The loss of ticket revenue alone may more than cancel out any television revenue they get from staying vs leaving.

Pull in Dayton, Butler, and Xavier to go with Georgetown, Marquette, and Villanova and you have a damn good basketball conference.

Anything that happens could happen relatively quickly because this has to be done before the new schools become members of the conference. If it doesn't happen before July 1, then people need to drop the "the Big East schools will eventually break away" argument because that point is is obvious that they won't.
 
#457 ·
Not really much to be worried about.. Those 7 big east basketball schools are as a whole just not that good. If CBS thinks that the Big East basketball school are going to get $1 million per year from a TV deal which is higher than I thought then the basketball schools will not go. Why? Because a TV deal for that proposed basketball will not nearly come close to achieving that number. The newly proposed schools won't go there as a part of the full conference as one the football schools won't allow it and plus they have a fair amount of schools already. Georgetown is broke. Nova is struggling for cash. They can't even fill a third of their NBA arenas for home games, they will go for the largest TV dollar which will come from the TV deal with the Big East football schools.
 
#458 ·
I'll agree w/ district baller that the chances remain slim, but there are rumors that the BBall onlies may only get roughly $1 mil out of the deal being negotiated. What if it drops, or what if there is language in the deal that allows the total money to drop should UConn, UC, Boise, etc... depart???

The key question in that regard, is what is a TV deal worth comprised of those 7, plus a handful of choosen schools. You also have to balance out the travel expenses they're going to see for non revenue sports traveling to New Orleans and Texas on a regular basis for conference games, vs the shorter travel they could arrange in say a 6x6 format split East-(mid)west. I have little doubt they have an "ish" figure from ESPN, CBS, NBC or elsewhere that tells them what that deal would be worth. Could they talk the "right" partners into joining that conference? Would Butler, X, UD, SLU, Creighton, VCU, Richmond, etc... listen??? Are the committed to each other and willing to tell the Big East 7 to go walk a plank? Would one team "chicken out" and jump at first offer in fear that others would take their place like colorado did when moving to the P12?

If the current a-10 deal w/ 14 teams (moving forward) is worth the reported $375k a season, then its not that hard to assume that a TV deal w/ the Big East 7 plus 2-7 more of the cream of the non football world is worth mroe than $375k. How close it gets what they can get out of the Big East is the key.
 
#461 ·
Would Butler, X, UD, SLU, Creighton, VCU, Richmond, etc... listen??? Are the committed to each other and willing to tell the Big East 7 to go walk a plank? Would one team "chicken out" and jump at first offer in fear that others would take their place like colorado did when moving to the P12?
Unfortunately, I think the answer to that question is probably 'yes'.

What I can tell you is that University of Richmond won't be making any decisions on a couple hundred thousand dollars of TV money.
 
#469 ·
The A-10 schools have to stick together. If we add anyone is should be under our terms and we choose the schools. Add two and stick at 16. Let the other five scramble. They through the A-10 members under the bus when the Big East formed so we shouldn't come running back to them when it collapses. I feel like Xavier and Butler will think this through a lot more than people seem to believe. If the A-10 schools hold out on the BE7 then they will be fighting for the last couple spots in the A-10 and its our choice who we want. Its all going to come down to loyalty though which I think the A-10 has more of than any other conference at this point. We're on the up and up. No reason to change that.
 
#473 ·
Compliments of the X Board:

Andy Katz ‏@ESPNAndyKatz
The 7 Big East Catholic schools are no longer naive. They know UC and UConn won't out. They want to be in a basketball conference

Andy Katz ‏@ESPNAndyKatz
The tough decision for 7 schools is they would need to dissolve the league. Can't just leave without assets, pay exit fee.

Andy Katz ‏@ESPNAndyKatz
Television money is the key. Would they get a better deal on their own or with new BE schools? No set timetable. But 7 are now engaged.

Andy Katz ‏@ESPNAndyKatz
Last on this: Multiple bids would come from a 10-12 league that includes Gtown, MQ, 'Nova, StJ and possible top A-10 schools.
 
#476 · (Edited)
I've said all along that eventually the Big East basketball schools would start to realize the difference in money would be minimal. They understand that the deal they will sign soon is the best deal they will likely ever get. UConn and Cincinnati are desperate and practically offering oral sex for a spot in a real football league. Boise has already began to wonder if staying out west is a better option. They'll still come to the Big East, but for how long?

I know the voting timetable is what it is, but this likely won't happen within the next few months. But at some point it will happen. The Big East schools will find a way to break the league apart. The money will be virtually even in the future, and they will want to be with like minded schools.

Those 7 schools will likely try to bring 5 others with them. 12 is the perfect basketball size. Xavier, Dayton, and SLU would seem to be virtual locks for an invite. St Joe would be likely, unless Vilanova shuts that down. Butler is an interesting case. Great school and basketball program, but they aren't Catholic, and I'm guessing their financials aren't as stable as the others. My guess is Creighton is a more likely option than Butler. Off-field benefits are merely window dressing in football leagues, but in this case, I think they could matter. The pooling of (religious) resources between the schools would be appealing.

The question is whether the A10 Catholic schools make the switch. Right now it would be a resounding yes. In 3-4 years...who knows. If the A10 becomes a regular 5/6 bid league and everyone ups their investment in athletics/basketball, then it would be far from an easy decision.
 
#480 ·
I've said all along that eventually the Big East basketball schools would start to realize the difference in money would be minimal. They understand that the deal they will sign soon is the best deal they will likely ever get. UConn and Cincinnati are desperate and practically offering oral sex for a spot in a real football league. Boise has already began to wonder if staying out west is a better option. They'll still come to the Big East, but for how long?

I know the voting timetable is what it is, but this likely won't happen within the next few months. But at some point it will happen. The Big East schools will find a way to break the league apart. The money will be virtually even in the future, and they will want to be with like minded schools.

Those 7 schools will likely try to bring 5 others with them. 12 is the perfect basketball size. Xavier, Dayton, and SLU would seem to be virtual locks for an invite. St Joe would be likely, unless Vilanova shuts that down. Butler is an interesting case. Great school and basketball program, but they aren't Catholic, and I'm guessing their financials aren't as stable as the others. My guess is Creighton is a more likely option than Butler. Off-field benefits are merely window dressing in football leagues, but in this case, I think they could matter. The pooling of (religious) resources between the schools would be appealing.

The question is whether the A10 Catholic schools make the switch. Right now it would be a resounding yes. In 3-4 years...who knows. If the A10 becomes a regular 5/6 bid league and everyone ups their investment in athletics/basketball, then it would be far from an easy decision.
You know this how? UD sources?
 
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