I've read somewhere that Boise has an escape claus in their Big East contract that if TV revenues are split w/ less than 70% going to the football side, they can leave w/o penalty or a significantly reduced penalty. Same article said Houston has an escape clause if TV revenues fall below some expected level (can't recall if the threshold was listed or not).
If the boise contract report is true, you can all but garuntee the football side will be getting at a minimum 70%, and perhaps even more if its needed to satisify the football side of things to keep things together.
The Big East's current deal nets roughly $40 mil a year, IIRC. I'm no TV Exec, but lets say b/w all the departures, additions, uncertainty, etc... the total Big East TV deal nets $60 mil a season. $60 mil * 30% / 16 teams on the BBall side = $1.125 mil per team on the BBall side. What if they "only" get the $40 mil they're getting now? That's $750k. What if its less? The people at those schools aren't stupid, I have little doubt that somewhere along the lines, they've talked to TV execs and they have a basic idea of how much they could generate if the broke off independently (thru whatever means) and added a handful of teams. With the right combination teams (and we've debated that a ton)I have little doubt they could generate a TV contract north of the $350k the A-10 allegedly gets right now.
How close they could get to what they are being offered as part of the current Big East deal is going to be the end driving point. I'm sure somewhere out there, there's a plan for the BBall onlies, plus UConn, UC, Temple, Memphis, etc... with the football side finding a home elsewhere. The Bball only side had a chance to grab the reigns and drive the future of the conference. they let football drive everything, while watching the best football programs all leaving or hopefully of leaving for "greener pastures". how much is it going to cost to send the Volleyball and baseball teams to Houston, Dallas & New Orleans every year.
In short, the BBall only side likely has a good idea of what a BBall only conference is worth, they probably have a good idea at this point w/ the current makeup of the Big East moving forward is worth. For better or worse, they appear to be holding on to the football side for now.