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**JNice** · 03-21-2005, 08:26 PM

http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/columns...ohn&id=2018276 [Insider]

I can't post the whole thing, but i'll post some points he makes:

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In fact, despite all the Rookie of the Year love being thrown Okafor's way, Howard's performance even as a teenage rookie is just as impressive.

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Once we put both players on the same footing, Okafor's advantage in per-game averages dwindles. On a per-40-minute basis, he averages 16.6 points to Howard's 13.6, but Howard actually moves ahead in rebounding, 12.3 to 12.1.

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Okafor's three-point edge in per-40-minute scoring still is a significant advantage, but that derives almost entirely from their diametrically-opposite offensive situations. Howard plays in a heavily guard-oriented offense, which not might be so bad if the guards weren't blind.

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Now, you might think, "Sure, Okafor hasn't been efficient, but that's because his team is so horrible." Here's the problem with that logic: Okafor has been significantly worse than his teammates. The Bobcats' team True Shooting Percentage of 49.0 is miles ahead of Okafor's 45.3. Of the eight Bobcats with more than 1,000 minutes played, only Keith "Brick Index" Bogans and Melvin Ely are worse.

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So while conventional wisdom is that Okafor has been the better offensive player, I have serious doubts whether this is really true. Per 40 minutes, Okafor's three-point advantage is offset by a massive disparity in accuracy. As I pointed out in an earlier column, Okafor's shooting is bad enough to do huge amounts of damage to the Bobcats' offense.

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Even now, he's not too shabby. I introduced my Player Efficiency Rating (PER) last week, and among rookies Howard – not Okafor – is first. The discussion above backs up that rating: Okafor's apparent advantage on offense is a mirage, and he hasn't been better on the boards or more active at the defensive end.

Yyzlin · 03-22-2005, 01:09 PM

I don't think this is really big news to anyone. Removing the minutes differential and both players are extremely similar in production. The big difference is Howard is unbelievably more efficient than Okafor right now. He shoots a higher FG%, while getting to the line more and being a better free throw shooter at the same time. Of course, Okafor has far less offensive talent on his team to open things up for him. What's interesting is that Okafor actually has better FG% from both jumpshots and close shots than Howard, but his overall FG% is actual lower because 60% of his FGA are jumpshots, while only 27% of Howard's are. Likewise, Okafor's counting stats also benefit from him being the main offensive option whereas Howard has often been an afterthought.

**JNice** · 03-22-2005, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yyzlin

I don't think this is really big news to anyone. Removing the minutes differential and both players are extremely similar in production. The big difference is Howard is unbelievably more efficient than Okafor right now. He shoots a higher FG%, while getting to the line more and being a better free throw shooter at the same time. Of course, Okafor has far less offensive talent on his team to open things up for him. What's interesting is that Okafor actually has better FG% from both jumpshots and close shots than Howard, but his overall FG% is actual lower because 60% of his FGA are jumpshots, while only 27% of Howard's are. Likewise, Okafor's counting stats also benefit from him being the main offensive option whereas Howard has often been an afterthought.

I think his argument is a little misleading though. If Dwight were on Charlotte, he may possibly be putting up better numbers than what Okafor is, but his shooting percentages would probably be suffering a bit like Okafor's. For a majority of the first half of the season, Dwight scored a lot of his points off others creating dunks for him, off fastbreaks, or getting the points his own self through offensive rebounds. And since most of the offensive rebounds he probably gets right around the basket, you can assume in most of the instances he is either going to get a very easy bucket or get fouled.

Yyzlin · 03-22-2005, 05:28 PM

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Originally Posted by JNice

I think his argument is a little misleading though. If Dwight were on Charlotte, he may possibly be putting up better numbers than what Okafor is, but his shooting percentages would probably be suffering a bit like Okafor's. For a majority of the first half of the season, Dwight scored a lot of his points off others creating dunks for him, off fastbreaks, or getting the points his own self through offensive rebounds. And since most of the offensive rebounds he probably gets right around the basket, you can assume in most of the instances he is either going to get a very easy bucket or get fouled.

I don't believe Hollinger ever makes the claim that Howard would post better numbers if he were in Charlotte, unless it was in noted in a part of the article that you didn't quote. Hollinger claims that simply based on their current performance on their current teams, Howard fares as an equal or superior to Okafor. It's a given that if Howard were to play in Charlotte, he would see his raw numbers go up, while his efficiency stats would go down.

EDIT: Also, from my other post, even though Okafor's overall efficiency numbers are lower, based on his advantage in jumpshooting and close shooting percentages, Okafor still is probably a more polished offensive weapon. Howard's great margin in taking more close shots is a direct result of as you said, other teammates creating opportunities for him or garbage points around the basket.

Idunkonyou · 03-22-2005, 07:45 PM

Well it is pretty obvious that Howard is better than Okafor now and will be much better than Okafor in the future. Okafor is averaging around 15 points a game at 14 shots a game. Howard mean while only takes around 8 shots a game (its been at 7 pretty much all season until the last 10 games or so) and averages 11 points per game. Post allstar break, Howard has been putting up 13 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 55% FG on 9 shots a game and 71% FT.

Another crazy stat are trips to the FT line. Howard, despite only taking around 7 shots a game, gets to the FT line 5 times a game, while Okafor, who takes almost double the amount of shots Howard gets, only goes around 4 times a game.

Again, its pretty obvious who is the better player now and who will be the better player in the future. If Howard got 14 shots a game, the kid would probably be putting up well over 15 points game, while still doing all the other great stuff he does. Considering he is only 19, his potential is off the charts. Some compare him to a KG or Duncan. I compare him more to Shaq. No, he will not be a 300+ pound guy or at least I don't think he will be, but he will probably get up to around 280 to 290 pounds at 7+ feet by the time he stops growing and not only will he destroy people in the paint, but he will also be very versatile. Howard I'm sure is scaring the crap out of most teams. I mean how many 19 year olds weigh around 270 pounds in this league? The kid is going to be a flat out monster.

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