ChrisWoj

Okay, so here's a topic I'm interested in hearing thoughts on: Peak oil.

Is it real? If no, why don't you believe so. If yes, when do you think we'll see a significant effect?


Personally, I don't think it could be anything but real. We only have so much oil, and we're continually building. The real question is the last one in my opinion: how many years (decades? centuries?) until it becomes a truly pressing issue. And it will become a pressing issue eventually, because government is too damn slow to take action before it does.

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R-Star

I have not heard of Peak Oil. I'm assuming it is the scenario where demand overwhelms supply.

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ChrisWoj

That's pretty much it. It looks at it all on a bell curve. Assuming that demand and usage continue to rise, our production is doomed to fall further and further behind as we run out of reachable oil. The Wikipedia page does a good job of discussing it without going into hysterics like some sites do.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

There are plenty of sensationalists out there that are claiming we'll sneak up on it within the next decade. Some even predict within the next five years. One quote from the Wiki: "In Feb 2010 the US Joint Forces Command issued the Joint Operating Environment 2010[123] warning US military commands 'By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.'" - of course the only real way to look at peak oil is through hindsight, but you have to think that somewhere out there is an accurate prediction. :P The question is, which nutjob is the right nutjob.

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R-Star

That US Joint Forces stuff is pure made up garbage, because if that were true America would be pushing the Keystone Pipeline through as quick as humanly possibly instead of trying to deny it.

With the discovery of the Canadian Oil Sands, it is said to be able to fuel current demands (don't remember if it was NA demands or world demands) for 300 years.

We aren't coming close to the idea of peak oil. Obviously it is something that will happen some day, but not in our lifetime in my opinion.

The real issue behind all this is China and India. But there's nothing you can do.

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Diable

There isn't an immediate danger of anything close to this. More oil is coming into the market, because technology has made a lot of fields viable and made it possible to drill in deeper waters. Iraq is restoring it's production too, which makes up for the sanctions on Iranian oil. In the United States all this fracking stuff has made Natural Gas so cheap that you're likely to see it used for transportation in short haul fleets, the stuff costs a fraction of what diesel does. If we had a real crisis we could probably switch to Natural Gas for a huge percentage of our needs without a catastrophic interruption. Only thing that would really threaten supplies is a major Middle East war, and that would really be a bigger problem for Asia and Europe than it would be for us.

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ChrisWoj

Well, with regards to switching to natural gas for a huge portion of our needs - I don't see that as feasible. Any talk of switching away from oil for a significant portion of our needs isn't probable because to do so we'd need so much oil just to switch that the cost would be far beyond the possible gains. We'd need machinery fueled by oil to replace the machinery that rebuilds the infrastructure with ones that run on natural gas, which in turn would be rebuilding the infrastructure itself... any thoughts of switching over our energy source in a major way to replace oil is, at present, not realistic.

Otherwise, good points from both of you that were beyond what I'd looked into.

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R-Star

Exactly on point with the "switch to natural gas" idea.

People throw it out there all the time, but its not going to happen. Ford, GM and Dodge are just going to switch their vehicles over to natural gas? Because you can't feasibly have a vehicle set up for both. And current vehicles on the road are what, going to be retrofitted? On who's dime? 10's of thousands of gas stations are going to equip themselves to meet the demands?

Its not at all feasible. And that's just from the vehicle stand point.

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Diable

It costs about 20 thousand dollars more to build an 18 wheeler that runs on NG. However the price of gas had fallen so dramatically that the same amount of energy produced by a gallon of diesel costs 1.50$ or less in Natural gas. You make that 20K back in a year or 18 months. Aside from the initial investment the only big disadvantage is the lack of infrastructure and the lower energy density (plus it's more complicated and slightly more hazardous to refuel). So it's only going to be practical if you have a fleet of vehicles which operates out of a local hub, so this is being done by people like Waste Management services and municipal fleets. You fix it so you can stop for Natural gas as easily as you can for diesel and you are good to go.

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R-Star

In all honesty does that sound feasible to you though?

Perhaps if they refuel at their home base. But even then, taking waste management off the books isn't really changing anything on a global level.

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Diable

This is already happening, but it's just starting and the obstacles are pretty big now. The savings are so enormous that it's going to keep growing. Long haul trucking isn't practical now, but anything where you are operating locally is. You'd just have to be willing to commit the resources to it. How would you like to pay less than half as much to fuel up your truck?

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R-Star

That all depends. How much does it cost to change my truck over to natural gas? Will I be able to leave the city?

I just started paying for my own gas a few months ago. But the more I pay for gas, the more I smile because I know my job is that more secure.

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clownskull

well, this doesn't have to do with oil but, it does compare in that it is a resource that can be used pretty much like oil or natural gas. i am talking about methane hydrates. the united states coastline has the majority of the world's supply of this stuff. there is an insane amount of it too. i believe i read that if it were to be used as the stand alone source of energy including running cars and such the united states has more than enough to run for well more than a century on this stuff. and that is if it were used as a stand alone and it wouldn't be since we will always have other competing sources which would slow the consumption and likely more than double the lifespan of the supply.

ChrisWoj

clownskull - The problem with that is, as has been mentioned earlier in the thread, the cost of changing over the infrastructure. We're too embedded in an oil culture to switch our entire world over.

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clownskull

naw- i don't buy that at all. we already have cars that run on natural gas. bus fleets out there do it too.
running on methane is not much different that natural gas.
both are flammable and can be used in pretty much identical ways. not much conversion would be needed.

edit: just wanted to add a few things- i am not saying we need to do this right now or anything. i am saying though that this is a fuel source that is available and could get the job done if needed. i would be shocked that the u.s. doesn't go ahead and start developing methods for getting this ball rolling as it is so abundant and could function in a supplemental role in offsetting costs as things like oil inevitably go higher. it would be an opec-proof way of securing reasonable fuel and energy costs.