Nimreitz

538. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I've posted this stuff before. Nate Silver, also famous as the statistician who invented PECOTA for baseball projections, takes all the polls and projects the election. He nailed 2008 right on the nose along with pretty much all the primaries. Actually, this paragraph from his wikipedia explains why you should take him seriously better than I can

His background is an economics degree from the University of Chicago.

Mr. Hobbes

He's got a point. But do debates really factor in all that much? It's not like CNN will say which states their subjects are from. It doesn't matter to them.

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don't edit me bro

Nimreitz

No I don't think they do. The Romney one was a huge exception it would seem. Perhaps that wasn't even the main reason he started to turn it around, just the easiest explanation.

R-Star

I was coming in here to post on last nights debate, then started shaking my head when I saw it became another EH shit show.


I'm sure there's been plenty of links to questionable websites helping prove whatever it is EH is trying to push this time. Probably something about how the Dumbocrats and Republitards are going to kill you in you sleep, and how anarchy is the way to freedom.


I'm not going to waste my time on this one.

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e-monk

yeah, guys who are asking whether these debates matter seem to have a short term memory issue - about a month ago, before denver this election looked very different but historically that's not the only time debates have turned the tide or at least singalled a turning

I think even non-event debates can have an impact, meaning for instance when Gore didnt clean dummy's clock the way most expected that had an impact (not to mention the sighing)

E.H. Munro

I don't know, I think it was as much about the news networks pimping the election as anything else. As far as I can see the electoral map hasn't changed all that much. I mean, I know that at one point Romney had a tiny lead in terms of electoral votes from states that were securely red, but he trailed in just about every state whose votes were allegedly up for grabs.

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If everyone loves you you're doing it wrong.

"Opium is the religion of the masses." Fred Reed

The Power of 99 Press

"He thinks it's going to be fun being governor. It's only fun being governor of New York if you have money to spend, and I spent it all." Nelson Rockefeller on his successor, Hugh Carey.

E.H. Munro

On that basis you should probably hate everyone here because the R-Star act hasn't been funny in years.

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If everyone loves you you're doing it wrong.

"Opium is the religion of the masses." Fred Reed

The Power of 99 Press

"He thinks it's going to be fun being governor. It's only fun being governor of New York if you have money to spend, and I spent it all." Nelson Rockefeller on his successor, Hugh Carey.

King Joseus

Oh look, another fake quote.

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Interested in joining the KVBL? PM me for information.

R-Star

Yea. But he sure zing'ed me though...

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E.H. Munro

Not really. It pretty much sums up 100% of R-Star's posting where I'm concerned.

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If everyone loves you you're doing it wrong.

"Opium is the religion of the masses." Fred Reed

The Power of 99 Press

"He thinks it's going to be fun being governor. It's only fun being governor of New York if you have money to spend, and I spent it all." Nelson Rockefeller on his successor, Hugh Carey.

36 Karat

..where you're concerned.

You're not the only mind in a vat, EH.

R-Star

You don't seem to understand that no one cares what you're opinion is.

For all you complain about me, I still get along with the majority of posters, and while there's plenty of arguments, there's plenty of times I agree with posters, or am swayed in a debate and admit to being wrong.


..... then there's you. You float around from thread to thread telling everyone how wrong they are no matter what the topic is, completely ruin threads, insult anyone who disagrees, and as of yet you are still not documented to have one time admitting you're wrong even when you have your ass handed to you in a debate.


For you to try to insult me when you're probably the worst poster on the site outside of the doctordrizzys of the world is hilarious.

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36 Karat

E.H. Munro

I think the same pertains to most people. You, for example.

I think you're confusing "get along" with "have you on their ignore list".


It's good to see that you've given up linking to past examples of this charge, as the last time you did it you linked to a thread where I admitted to being wrong. I'm pretty much the only guy on the internet that admits to being wrong. Like I'm also the only guy that admits to losing when he goes into a casino.

__________________
If everyone loves you you're doing it wrong.

"Opium is the religion of the masses." Fred Reed

The Power of 99 Press

"He thinks it's going to be fun being governor. It's only fun being governor of New York if you have money to spend, and I spent it all." Nelson Rockefeller on his successor, Hugh Carey.

E.H. Munro

Yes, R-Star's modus operandi is to pop here into threads where I'm posting and write things like "EH HATES THE GOVERNMENT, GET THAT BULLSHIT OUT OF HERE" even if it has no relevance to what's being discussed. Which is pretty much all the time. He just likes to shriek insults at me. As I don't get an ignore list I just sort of ignore him. He likes to think that he's the king of the internet and for some reason feels that I threaten his title.

__________________
If everyone loves you you're doing it wrong.

"Opium is the religion of the masses." Fred Reed

The Power of 99 Press

"He thinks it's going to be fun being governor. It's only fun being governor of New York if you have money to spend, and I spent it all." Nelson Rockefeller on his successor, Hugh Carey.