[Talkhard]

Originally Posted by barfo

Certainly some Democrats say they'll make a protest vote if their candidate doesn't get selected, but it's pretty unlikely that after several months of reflection they'll actually vote for McCain.

They won't have to. Just by staying away from the polls on election day they'll help hand it to McCain.

If Clinton somehow steals this thing from Obama, you're going to see mass defections by blacks from the Democratic party. Some will vote for McCain, and some just won't vote at all. Either way, it will be enough to sink the Dems.

If Obama beats Clinton, millions of white Americans, including a good number of "Reagan Democrats," will refuse to vote for him because of the racist comments of his pastor and Obama's long-time association with him. This, too, will be enough to sink the Dems.

[barfo]

Originally Posted by Talkhard

They won't have to. Just by staying away from the polls on election day they'll help hand it to McCain.

If Clinton somehow steals this thing from Obama, you're going to see mass defections by blacks from the Democratic party. Some will vote for McCain, and some just won't vote at all. Either way, it will be enough to sink the Dems.

If Obama beats Clinton, millions of white Americans, including a good number of "Reagan Democrats," will refuse to vote for him because of the racist comments of his pastor and Obama's long-time association with him. This, too, will be enough to sink the Dems.

Well, we'll see in November, won't we, but I'm thinking you won't be celebrating.

What do you think the current odds of McCain getting elected are? 51%? 75%? 99%?

barfo

[Talkhard]

Originally Posted by barfo

Well, we'll see in November, won't we, but I'm thinking you won't be celebrating.

I'm thinking I will be. If I were McCain's campaign manager, I'd run this picture alot before the general election. After all, a picture is worth a thousand words (maybe a million in this case).

What do you think the current odds of McCain getting elected are? 51%? 75%? 99%?

75% is about right, maybe higher. I still want to believe in the good sense of the American people.

[dudleysghost]

Like most things these days, there is a futures market that asks this very question, about probability of individual candidates getting elected, like Vegas odds for non-sporting events. In the past, these markets have proven to be more accurate than polling data at predicting who will win an election, especially so the farther away you get from election day. Here's a link to one of those markets.

http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/presidential/

At this time, the market has the odds of Obama winning at about 50%, McCain at about 40%, Hillary at 8.5% and a spattering of others with 3% or less (no, it doesn't quite add up to exactly 100, but it's close).

What's more, looking at the graph on the right, investors seemed to respond to the news about Rev Wright, but only briefly, then the trend line went back to where it was before.

[AllEyezonTX]

[barfo]

Originally Posted by Talkhard

If I were McCain's campaign manager, I'd run this picture alot before the general election. After all, a picture is worth a thousand words (maybe a million in this case).

I don't get it. 'splain, please.

barfo

[STOMP]

Originally Posted by dudleysghost

Like most things these days, there is a futures market that asks this very question, about probability of individual candidates getting elected, like Vegas odds for non-sporting events. In the past, these markets have proven to be more accurate than polling data at predicting who will win an election, especially so the farther away you get from election day. Here's a link to one of those markets.

http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/presidential/

At this time, the market has the odds of Obama winning at about 50%, McCain at about 40%, Hillary at 8.5% and a spattering of others with 3% or less (no, it doesn't quite add up to exactly 100, but it's close).

What's more, looking at the graph on the right, investors seemed to respond to the news about Rev Wright, but only briefly, then the trend line went back to where it was before.

actually it went higher

STOMP

[Hector]

Originally Posted by dudleysghost

the market has the odds of Obama winning at about 50%, McCain at about 40%, Hillary at 8.5%

Nevada betting odds are in proportion to the way bettors are betting. If the Mafia, I mean the Nevada pros think the Lakers will win by 2, but Angelenos dominate the betting as usual and bet the Lakers will win by 15, then the odds will predict more than 2. Same for Hillary winning. The pros paying out based on an expectation of 8.5% simply means that few bettors are betting for her, not that the pros think that is the probability she will win.

[dudleysghost]

Originally Posted by Hector

Nevada betting odds are in proportion to the way bettors are betting. If the Mafia, I mean the Nevada pros think the Lakers will win by 2, but Angelenos dominate the betting as usual and bet the Lakers will win by 15, then the odds will predict more than 2. Same for Hillary winning. The pros paying out based on an expectation of 8.5% simply means that few bettors are betting for her, not that the pros think that is the probability she will win.

You're right. In fact, those odds aren't actually even from Nevada. There are no handicappers involved, as they are set entirely by the market, like the stock market or derivatives market. The price is entirely determined by what bettors are willing to bet.

That said, these types of markets have proven to be more accurate than polls in predicting actual winners. There are no "pros" in picking presidential candidates, but for many questions, smart people often look to futures markets to get a very good guess from the aggregate opinions of people who are willing to bet money on their predictions.

[Hector]

One fake type of poll that can be used to hype a candidate asks, Who do you think will win? So if 40% want A to win, 35% B, and 25% C, the poll will answer, 90% predict A will win and 10% say B will win. When the headlines scream that, readers skimming the news will take it to mean that 90% want A to win.

Similarly, if 8.5% of the "market" (weird) predict that Hillary will win, that is far from 8.5% of Americans wanting her to win. That just means that with the media dividing and conquering by pushing for a rivalry between Hillary and Obama, and favoring Obama, most Americans think that most Americans will be influenced by the Republican-owned mass media.