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Old 07-16-2004, 01:43 PM   #1 (permalink)
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We just signed the second-best player in the league!

At least, according to this guy...
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Old 07-16-2004, 01:45 PM   #2 (permalink)
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#1 ranked Offensively
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Old 07-16-2004, 02:18 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I want #13 on our team as well
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Old 07-16-2004, 02:26 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I want #11 back...
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Old 07-16-2004, 03:18 PM   #5 (permalink)
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If you read the entire preface to the rankings, you'd see ...

Quote:
That said, there are a number of outliers in the top 20. Six of those nine outliers (Richie Frahm, Jason Hart, Mike Sweetney, Mickael Pietrus, Earl Watson, and Carlos Arroyo) have standard errors ranging from 4.3 to 6.3, so these players’ high ratings could mostly reflect sampling variation – although Frahm’s rating is so high that despite the high standard error and low number of minutes, it probably is something more than sampling variation. Three players (Nenê, Jeff Foster, and Eric Williams) seem to have genuinely quite good ratings that cannot be explained away by sampling variation. Foster replaced an All-Star in Brad Miller and his team did not miss a beat, ending up with the best record in the League. Nenê played major minutes for a team that improved dramatically in 2003-04, and Eric Williams played on two teams (Boston and Cleveland) that played their best basketball of the season while he was with them.

However, even taking all of that into account, these ratings are quite noisy. Another approach is probably necessary for these rating to be that useful. Below I outline that approach which combines these pure adjusted plus/minus ratings with ratings derived from the relationship between game statistics and these pure adjusted plus/minus ratings.
If you look at the adjusted numbers on the last Table, Frahm's then missing.

Pretty cool rating system, actually.
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Old 07-16-2004, 03:53 PM   #6 (permalink)
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82games.com is definitely an interesting site, and we're at an interesting stage in the analysis of the NBA game.

We can look to SABR and how big of an impact it's made and is making on the Major Leagues and wonder: how much of that is possible for the NBA? Deal Oliver, who was quoted in the link meru provided and wrote the book "Basketball on Paper" has been used as a consultant by at least one NBA team, I believe.

Looking at Sabermetrics, they'd been around for about a generation, and students of baseball are now applying OPS+ and Win Shares and a bunch of stuff I don't even have an inkling of. Rob Neyer and the guys from Baseball Prospectus are pretty prominent. Theo Epstein grew up on it, and now he's the youngest GM in the history of the game.

Can this happen in the NBA? Maybe. Baseball is inherently easier to track and analyze because so much of the action occurs in discrete chunks. Baseball also has fewer subjective stats than basketball (or, perhaps more accurately, the primary subjective stat in baseball (the error) is much less prominent than the primary subjective stat in basketball (the assist). Baseball also has an incredibly rich history of documentation in box scores and plays twice as many games a season (although its pitchers don't).

For all of this, the entire game of baseball can't be summed up in numbers, and it will be more difficult still to encapsulate the NBA game... but I think that as the statistical study of the NBA matures (over the next years and decades) we will all learn more about the game, about its players, and about how to watch the sport.

Ed O.
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Old 07-16-2004, 05:02 PM   #7 (permalink)
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its crazy looking at POR's stats. Zach looks really bad (for being a 20+10 guy) from those stats and DA actually looks really good! Not sure what thats means....
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Old 07-16-2004, 07:16 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally posted by <b>Draco</b>!
its crazy looking at POR's stats. Zach looks really bad (for being a 20+10 guy) from those stats and DA actually looks really good! Not sure what thats means....
That means that the SGs that are in the game when DA isn't are much worse and more likely to give up more points than they score than the PF that are in the game when Zach isn't.
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Old 07-17-2004, 01:17 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I knew Frahm was the bomb.
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