ProudBFan

Okay, I want to get my complete, unabashed theory down in writing before I disappear in work for the day (we just finished a huge customer deliverable and I've been using a little slack time to catch up on the Blazers). Here is what we know right now:

1. The Blazers made a minimum qualifying offer to Miles which reportedly ticked him off.

2. Miles and his agent are reportedly asking for a much longer / larger contract.

3. No forward progress has been made between the Blazers and Miles' camp WRT negotiating Miles' contract.

4. For weeks, since the 2003-2004 season ended in fact, Shareef's camp has adamantly been demanding a trade - to the point of threatening to hold out if he's still here when Fall camp rolls around. This message has been consistent, up to and including today.

5. Not so long ago (last week?), Nash went on record in a local interview that his "vision" is to have Rahim starting at SF alongside Zach, seemingly leaving Miles as the odd man out.

6. Just yesterday, word hit the wires that the Blazers had rejected New Jersey's "best" offer for Rahim.

7. Yesterday, the Blazers held a press conference to announce Trenton Hassell's signing of their 6-year / $27M offer sheet. This is a *highly* unusual move, as the Timberwolves can still match the offer and retain Hassell (who they seem to feel is an important piece of their present & future).

8. And now, within the past hour, Ric Bucher of ESPN is reporting a dramatic reversal in position from Shareef's camp - that Shareef is now planning on staying with the Blazers and losing 25-30 pounds to play the lion's share of SF minutes for the Blazers.

So, in trying to make sense of it all, here is my complete, unabashed theory:

McHale has agreed not to match the Blazers' offer to Hassell on the condition that Nash doesn't match the Timberwolves' offer to Miles (which I expect is forthcoming). The Wolves can use Miles, and since Miles will only sign a 1-year deal with the Blazers, he can sign a 1-year deal with the Wolves for the same amount and explore Free Agency next summer just the same - meanwhile playing for a legitimate title contender.

This opens up the starting SF spot for Shareef, giving him the minutes he wants for the season (without conflicting with other deserving starters) and allowing the Blazers to hold onto him until his contract expires next Summer (beneficial to them as well).

The beauty of this theory is that if the Blazers see Miles as an important piece of their long-term puzzle (based on how he plays with the Wolves next season), they should have a BUTTLOAD of salary space available with which to pursue him on the Free Agent market next summer when Damon, Van Exel, and Abdur-Rahim's contracts all come off the books.

If this turns out to be more or less what's happening, then it would seem that the only issue the Blazers have left on their plate is the hole behind Theo at Center. And they still have time to address that issue.

Okay, tear it to shreds, people. I know it's what you do best.



PBF

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Schilly

A couple of major flaws in the theory....

1. The qualifying offer is an offer that the Blazers make to retain Miles RFA status. He doesn't accept it, if he did he wouldn't be a FA at all right now.

2. If Miles were to accept the qualifying offer he would become a UFA with the blazers holding Bird rights and the ability to sign him to the largest possible contract he can receive regardless of cap situation. If he signs a 1 year deal with Minnesota, then no team would hodl bird rights to him and he would be an UFA, so teams would have to be under the cap or use the MLE to sign him. This would limit his ability to earn more money down the road.

Trader Ed

I was wondering about this as well....

while your theory means we let them all sign and then not match... we are first in line. What is to prevent us from Matching MILes offer after Trentons has already become a Blazer then?

Miles for Hassell I would not do from a value standpoint... I am not a big Miles fan, but appreciate him. And I like Trenton's defensive capabilities


Does anything happen on July 29th that may hold up any of this all? a July 14th signing with match capabilities???

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ProudBFan

Excellent points, guys. I've revised my theory - and added an addendum.

PBF

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Kmurph

This couldn't work, in fact the only way it could work is if POR did a S&T with Miles to MIN for a player like Ervin Johnson and maybe a pick?

or a larger deal like Miles (in a S&T) and Ruben Pattersen for Sczerbiak. Although I think POR would be reluctant to take on that much salary.

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Quit the Webster hate

MAS RipCity

If we lose Miles, I just don't think I can be that excited at all for the upcomming season.

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ProudBFan

Why not? (Not trying to be snippy here, just trying to understand the inner workings of the NBA better.)

PBF

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Kmurph

Well POR tendered Miles for $5.4, and I am unsure if MIN has all of their MLE available as well. So even if they did, MIles would have to agree to accept a deal starting at $4.9 with maximum increases, and he and his agent just blasted POR for offering less than the tender for a contract. Doesn't make sense that he would then accept such a contract from MIN, or why for that matter POR wouldn't WANT him too so they could match (outside of your propsed wink wink agreement). I'd rather have Miles at a deal starting at the MLE AND Hassell than give him away to MIN for essentially Hassell. Maybe not won't work, but an improbable scenario IMO.

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ProudBFan

You're probably right, Kmurph. And thanks for spelling it out. The way I see it is this:

Minny reportedly still has their full MLE to offer. And that MLE isn't that much less than the starting salary that the Blazers reportedly offered. So if Miles has resigned himself to signing a 1-year deal then exploring Free Agency next summer anyway, why wouldn't he sign that 1-year deal with the Wolves (who can use him and who are a legitimate title contender) instead of the Blazers?

Wouldn't he stand to gain more exposure with the Wolves next season (since they are expected to contend) than he would with the Blazers (since they aren't)? And wouldn't that exposure tend to translate into larger contract offers next summer? Wouldn't that be worth the small difference in salary playing for the Wolves vs. the Blazers this one year?

Probably grasping at straws... but I guess that's how much I want to make sense of all this.

I guess it's all just a far-fetched theory unless/until we hear of Minny making an offer to Miles.

PBF

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tlong

Do you have a link to Ric Bucher's assertion that SAR has changed his tune? I have seen nothing on espn.com related to this.

tlong

Never mind. I found the other thread.

ProudBFan

Nothing official. Just two similar statements from (seemingly) unrelated sources:

http://www.basketballboards.net/foru...126&forumid=14

http://forums.espn.go.com/espn/messa...ssageID=698899 (this one confirmed by other posters in the same thread)

PBF

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keebs3

Heres an idea on the Miles situation:

The Blazers want Miles back, but they want to pay him as little as possible. So they offer him a modest amound to start things off. If no team makes an offer to Miles chances are he'll take Portlands deal. However, if another team does make an offer to Miles, the Blazers with eventually match that offer. I feel confident that we will sign Miles, we just want to do it for as little as possible...

Make sense? Yes? No?

JMK

ProudBFan

Nah... WAY too obvious!

But seriously, keebs, this thing about Shareef now prepping to play the majority of minutes at SF really makes me question the Blazers intentions WRT Miles. But, again, Bucher could just be talking out his arse. Time will tell.

PBF

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keebs3