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Old 04-18-2006, 11:47 PM   #1 (permalink)
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My thoughts on the draft

OK I know we're getting draft'd to death. But the more I think about it the more I come to the same conclusion....

Looking at our team, Outlaw and Viktor are both playing fairly well at the 3, Webster looks like he could be considered a 3 as well. Telfair and Webster are both starting to step into the leadership kind of role.....Skinner is a career backup, Joel is 50/50 on returning, Theo is perpetually injured, Ha isn't ready for extended minutes, Zach's heart and focus are severely under question.

SF's 2.5 players that you know are gonna play hard

PF's 1 player that will play hard, but is a career reserve

C we have no reliable answer

Tellfair is shooting about 35% from 3 way upp from his 28% of last year. Webster is at 37% from 3. Both players should continue to improve from outside. From my perspective if you can have 2 players that are above 35% from 3, then you are in pretty good shape. Factor in Viktor as a guy who is at 34%, not disasterous. Next thing you need is the slashing kinda guy, Outlaw isn't a purte slasher but he's very good at knocking downt he J from 2 steps inside, and is learning to crash the boards. He also plays pretty decent defense.

The way I see it, we are competant at the 3, looking good at teh 1 and 2, and from the outside (coulkd be a little better, Websters development will fix that) The 4 could be considered covered if Zach re-commits. THe 5 is a huge question mark.

Now looking at the draft, and fighting off the attempt to brainwash us all, Morrison is no better of a pick as Aldridge. LaMarcus plays D, he rebounds, he plays within himself, he's 6'11" and 240lb. Morrison is a nicew player, but he's not the outside bomber some make him out to be, he's a detriment on D. Good Scorer though. Both players have pro's and Cons, both have health concerns. But I see them as equal from a prospect standpoint. With that said if talent is equal, then go for need. In my book, Aldridge fills a much larger need for us.
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Old 04-18-2006, 11:56 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

I agree. We DESPERATLEY need rebounders and big men. In all honestly, is Adam really a better shooter than Webster? I am just not sure.
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Old 04-18-2006, 11:57 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

the thing is, we're not really competetant at the 3 spot. Outlaw still hasn't show that he's capable of being the starter, and Webster really needs to be the SG (otherwise we're stuck with Juan Dixon).

As for Viktor, he's turning into a PF more than a SF now.

If Morrison isn't the "threat from deep" as you seem to imply, than I can say that Aldridge and Thomas (and Noah) aren't the defensive threats that people make them out to be.

Oooh, cept that actually morrison IS a very good outside shooter.

if he a bad defender? yes and no. he's not a stopper, but to act as tho the guys who are 'bigs' are going to be as much of a "difference" maker ont his team, is odd. Noah is raw on offense, Thomas is rawer, and Aldridge seems to have no stones on offense. Thats not to say that they'll be busts, but that the really good teams have guards or SF's who are good (cept for 1, maybe 2...and the bigs in this draft aren't the next Tim Duncan or Shaq)

I'm not sure if the negatives that Morrison has, are any more of a detriment (sp) to his game than the negatives that each of the others have, but I do believe his arsenal on offense is better than the others have.
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Old 04-18-2006, 11:58 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

More fuel for my fire

Team 3pt%
#16 Portland 35.2%

Rebounding
#30 Portland 37.65

Opponent Rebounding
#26 Portland 42.22
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Old 04-18-2006, 11:59 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatBlazerGuy
I agree. We DESPERATLEY need rebounders and big men. In all honestly, is Adam really a better shooter than Webster? I am just not sure.

Id say that they're about on par, altho Martell has a much tougher time creating his own shots, and hit shots when he's not wide open or on the move.

Plus, is it really a bad thing to have a really good shooting SF, and a really good shooting SG?

at the expense of a PF that's most likely going to be a bench player because we probably are stuck with Zach?
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Old 04-18-2006, 11:59 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

The thing I see, when looking at this draft, is that if Aldridge played with 1/2 the intensity of Adam he would be everyone's choice for the 1st pick. He has it all. Everything you ask for in a big man but intensity. Too bad really.
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:06 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatBlazerGuy
The thing I see, when looking at this draft, is that if Aldridge played with 1/2 the intensity of Adam he would be everyone's choice for the 1st pick. He has it all. Everything you ask for in a big man but intensity. Too bad really.
Same with Gay, but they're both still possible #1 picks.

And Bargnani wouldn't solve the Blazers' rebounding woes, either.

Would Thomas help?
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:07 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

When I say Morrison isn't the outside shooter he is made out to be, I mean he isn't the deadeye Bomber that a lot of people say he is. He did shoot 42% from 3 this year. Morrison only shot 31% last year and the year before.

By comparison Jarrett Jack as a Junior shot 44% from 3 and also as a sophmore dshot 31%.
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:10 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

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Originally Posted by Schilly
When I say Morrison isn't the outside shooter he is made out to be, I mean he isn't the deadeye Bomber that a lot of people say he is. He did shoot 42% from 3 this year. Morrison only shot 31% last year and the year before.

By comparison Jarrett Jack as a Junior shot 44% from 3 and also as a sophmore dshot 31%.
by that theory, then, you're implying that college stats are skewed (especially considering the distance of the 3 point line)...so how do you explain then that the defensive stats of players seemingly transfer over?

you don't think that the players in the NBA will be the same as those in college, and therefore their defensive prowess won't be diminished?

also, jack had almost 30 fewer 3's than morrison did (and almost half as many fg's attempted period), and I sincerely doubt that jack was getting double and triple teamed during the games like morrison was.
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:10 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

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Originally Posted by ThatBlazerGuy
The thing I see, when looking at this draft, is that if Aldridge played with 1/2 the intensity of Adam he would be everyone's choice for the 1st pick. He has it all. Everything you ask for in a big man but intensity. Too bad really.
When I've seen Aldridge I never got the sense his intensity was related to his interest level. I remember many said Duncan was too passive coming out of college too. Just because a guy isn't headbutting the ball, doesn't mean his fire isn't burning.
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:11 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

I can certaintly say that Martell has a better longball than Adam. Now, Adam may be better at creating his own shot, against NCAA competition. How well he will be able to create space in the NBA is yet to be seen.
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:13 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

Quote:
Same with Gay, but they're both still possible #1 picks.

And Bargnani wouldn't solve the Blazers' rebounding woes, either.

Would Thomas help?
Thomas is a very good rebounder, but statistically Aldridge and TT are identical in that category. But, his offense is nowhere near LaMarcus. TT has no jumper what so ever. LaMarcus has the potential to be a Garnett like jump shooter, amazing form and arch.
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:16 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by SMiLE
by that theory, then, you're implying that college stats are skewed (especially considering the distance of the 3 point line)...so how do you explain then that the defensive stats of players seemingly transfer over?

you don't think that the players in the NBA will be the same as those in college, and therefore their defensive prowess won't be diminished?
Who said they do? Morrison is considered defficient at the College level, how does that translate to the NBA?

By comparison Kyle Korver....in College
43.4%, 45.2%, 42.9%, 48%

The reason I use Korver is I think a lot of people are mistaking Morrison for a Korveresque shooter.

Steve Kerr shot 58% from 3 as a senior.
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Old 04-19-2006, 12:16 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Re: My thoughts on the draft

This draft is tricky, I think, because the Blazers need a lot of things.

I agree that we need a big man -- more specifically, we need length, defensive presence, rebounding, and interior scoring, in that order I think -- more than we need a wing player. Thus Bargnani, Aldridge, and maybe Thomas look pretty good.

But we also need an infusion of peronality/character. I think this team is mostly made up of good guys, actually, but too many of them are fairly passive followers (Miles, Randolph, Ratliff, and Outlaw for sure, and maybe Webster, Przybilla, and Khryapa as well). We need leadership, commitment, fire, and heart. Thus Morrison looks pretty good.

I don't know what the hell to do.

I'd like to see the Blazers work a trade for another high pick, so they could nab both Morrison and one of the big guys (I prefer Bargnani but I'd prefer not to beat my anti-Aldridge dead horse right this moment).

Of course you can't really figure out how anything would shake down until after the draft lotto, but I wonder if we could work something out with Chicago, in which the principles would be Z-Bo and the NY pick.

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