Kmurph

Ok, so I went through the player salaries and teams...and came up with some trade scenarios for POR involving Zach. I think all of these trade ideas fall within a realm of fairness, some clearly better for POR than others...

I tried to only use teams that I thought could legitimately have an interest in Zach and eliminate those who I wouldn't see having much interest (ORL for example) or just don't have the necessary pieces (MIL for example)...

These are just ideas, they certainly aren't perfect, and I have no idea what "value" Zach has with other GM's...I tend to believe that all of Zach's "offcourt" antics don't hurt his value significantly, but probably do have some effect...I also don't think Zach will be able to get POR an All-Star in return....I think dealing him will be more along the lines of one\a few servicable players, expiring (or close to) contracts and a a young "potential" talent and\or draft pick...

I will list in parenthesis players contracts...when they are expiring (E), when they have a Player Option (PO), when they have a team option (TO) or a qualifying offer (QO) and the year this takes effect...

I just did this as a starting basis for discussion, I am sure some people will think some of these deals greatly undervalue Zach and some may feel the opposite...If that becomes the case, then great, that means to me, that they are likely somewhere in the "fair value" range...at least "fanwise"...

Either way it is a basis for discussion...hopefully a lively but courteous one...and by all means if you think I onmitted a team, put down your thoughts or ask me why I didn't include them, or why a proposed deal does\does not have a particular player.....

One note: Maybe Storyteller or someone else can clarify for me, I am guessing that POR would probably NOT deal Zach (if they do) until July 1st when his Base Year Compensation is up (Is this correct?)...

OK...So then looking through all the teams rosters, I found NINE potential suitors for Zach, and IMO 2 or 3 of them are sketchy at best...I left those for last, as I found them pretty unappealing...

I do think there are a few teams that WOULD have interest in Zach, but I question what POR would possibly want in return....

DENVER
I doubt POR wants Kenyon Martin (they better not)...who is signed through and has a Player Option in 2011...I don't see a deal there...I know Nash likes Martin, but damm...he would be an idiot to make that deal IMO....and I doubt DEN is interested in dealing Camby, Miller or Carmelo or Zach...and I can certainly understand why...

One option COULD be a S&T involving Nene....a lot of "ifs" required to be met for that to occur though....DEN could just make a Qualifying offer to Nene, and if they did then a deal like...

Nene (QO 06'), Najera (PO 07') & Hodge (TO 07') for Zach could work

Not sure how Martin and Zach would mesh though but that is DEN problem.....For POR Nene and Najera would be great help in rebounding...Nene still has a lot of "potential" to get much better...Hodge is just a throw in, but could surprise coming off the bench....

Final Thought: I like this deal a lot for POR, not sure if DEN goes for it though. Nene would be a great addition to the team, Najera would be a good player to have off the bench, Hodge is a prospect but could turn out to be a pretty decent player.

HOUSTEN

Well..IMO Zach would make a GREAT 3rd wheel to Yao and T-Mac, and surprisingly they have some intriguing pieces for POR.....Two possibilities that I saw were...

Juwan Howard (PO 08'), Bob Sura (PO 07') and the 10th pick for Zach
OR
Stromile Swift (E 08'), Bob Sura, Maciej Lampe (TO 06' - HOU would need to pick this up or renegotiate (S&T) and then deal him I think) and the #10 for Zach and the #30

I like this deal a fair bit for POR....Howard is a good, steady veteran PF, whose contract is not a killer, and Sura is a good veteran combo guard, so he could provide size at PG and shift to SG if needed, and the other key is the #10 pick, which HOU has hinted at wanting to deal...This allows POR to grab a big man (or another player) at #10...HOU would have to make the selection and then deal it to POR on\after July 1st however...

It would be great if Shelden Williams was there, but even if he isn't, Cedric Simmons, Josh McRoberts, Patrick O'Bryant, Tiago Splitter, Yi Jianlin all could be. I actually prefer getting Howard to the enigmatic Swift & Lampe....But that deal could work too.

Final Thought: Out of all the deals, this is one of the best IMO and most likely to be possible IMO. HOU has made it known their pick can be had, and with Yao & T-Mac I think they are looking to add veteran pieces...Zach would be a good upgrade for them IMO. Howard is a solid veteran who could replace some of the production lost with Zach, Sura could fill a good split role as a PG\SG, and the pick is low enough to give POR a shot at a young big guy or a good young player at another position.

CHICAGO
Well, I for one would LOVE to see a deal involving CHI..The problem is, I don't think POR (or Zach for that matter) is necessarily high on CHI "players wanted" list...I think they have bigger fish to go after, namely CHI native, KG...

The good thing about any deal with CHI is they do have the capspace to take additional salary...I don't think though that CHI is going to part with any of their "young" core to get Zach...So I think the prospects of getting Ben Gordon, Luol Deng or Tyson Chandler are slim to nil....Chandler would appear most likely, but I seriously doubt CHI would deal him for Zach...

So IMO, any deal with CHI would revolve around the NY pick...meaning in all likelyhood TWO top 5 picks for POR...Also, if CHI got the #1 I doubt they deal it, the futher down that pick slides the better chances they deal it...

Mike Sweetney (QO 07') and\or Othella Harrington (E 07') and the NY pick (#2-#5) for Zach

Let's say it ends up #3, as at least 1 team jumps up to #1 or #2...That leaves POR to choose from 2 of Morrison, Aldridge, Thomas, Barganai or Gay....I'd take that and be happy...In addition POR gets one or two servicable "bigs" in Sweetney and Harrington, niether of whom have long term cap ramifications...

Final Thought: I place a deal like this near the top of my "wishlist" but I doubt a deal b\t these two teams will occur....I just think CHI can find better trades elsewhere. As far as POR is concerned...Walking away with a Morrison and Aldridge, Thomas or Bargnani would be fantastic for POR future

CLEVELAND

Essentially a swap of PF, Adding Zach to LeBron and Ilgauskas makes them much stronger IMO, and for a team looking to go further in the playoffs this would be a step up for them IMO..

Drew Gooden (QO 06'), Ira Newble (TO 07') and either Luke Jackson (TO 07') or Sasha Pavlovic (QO 07') for Zach

Not nearly as appealing to me as the 1st 3 deals, but not particularly horrible to me either...Drew Gooden would need to be given a qualifying offer, but he would be (IMO) a nice replacement for Zach, Newble is filler who could be cut loose next offseason, and POR could either welcome back local kid Jackson or Pavlovic, both marginal SF prospects IMO....

Final Thought: Not a particulary great trade IMO, but it doesn't get much better from here. I think Gooden will continue to improve, and I like him as a player, Newble's deal can be shrugged off next year and Jackson or Pavlovic could help the team...Jackson in particular would be good PR for the team, not totally convinced what he would provide on the court, if he ended up a decent bench player I'd be happy

INDIANA

I find the prospect of IND moving Jermaine O'Neal unlikely, but it certainly should be considered a possibility, especially if IND intends to reshape their team a little as rumoured. O'Neal's deal is big...VERY big and doesn't expire until 2010 at which point O'Neal would be making $23 million...So If POR trades for him, he will be here for awhile...

This does nothing to help for cap space (obviously), but I do think a basic switch of Zach for O'Neal is a good one for POR. The problem lies in making the numbers work, and I do think O'Neal's value is greater than Zach's, so what else from POR would need to be included?

Two ideas...

Zach, Dixon & future 1st round pick for O'Neal (E 10')
OR
Zach, Outlaw, Blake & #30 for O'Neal & #16

I think the latter deal is more likely to entice IND. I included a swap of picks, b\c IMO all 3 for O'Neal is a bit steep of a price to pay...moving up 14 slots in the 2006 draft helps offset this IMO...This gives POR possible acces to players like P.O'Bryant, Y.Jianlin,

R.Fernandez, J.Boone & JJ Redick

Final Thought: I wouldn't be opposed to either of these deals, I would prefer the 2nd deal to the 1st....Getting O'Neal back in POR would be good all the way around...on & off the court...and I would like to see POR move up into the teens and get a better shot at a better quality prospect.

NEW YORK
I think a deeal involving Zach to NY is a real possibility. I don't think NY would deal Frye for Zach, but they might...you just never know.

Any deal with NY has the benefit of probably unloading massive salary a year from now and another big contract (Miles or Theo) with Zach as well...both Jalen Rose and Maurice Taylor have large expiring deals, and NY has some young talent at PF to (in part) replace Zach with. NY is also one of the few teams who have expresssed interest in Miles.

Zach & Miles for Jalen Rose (E 07') and Channing Frye
OR
Zach & Miles for Jalen Rose, David Lee and #21

The latter deal is more likely to occur than the deal for Frye, and I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to making such a deal. Jalen Rose could fill that "veteran SG" role for 1yr, giving Martell another year to grow into the position. David Lee, is a talented PF prospect and the #21 pick is another assest to either use to draft a player, a chip in another trade or could be used w\ #30 & #31 to move up in the 1st round.

Final Thought: Not ideal, but not as bad as it appears either. The goal here is getting out from Miles & Zach's contracts, and this accomplishes this in 1 fell swoop, and POR could keep Theo for the time being as insurance against Pryzbilla leaving or if he resigns...offer insurance against an injury. David Lee is a decent PF prospect, give him minutes and see what he is capable of, I would guess solid if unspectacular production, and I would be fine with that. If POR could parlay their later round picks to move up in the draft, then that would be even better.

From here on it gets a little dicey IMO....

LA LAKERS
Well they inquired about Zach at one time, and I do think they would be interested in acquiring Zach to pair with Kobe, especially if they didn't have to give Odom to get Zach, and in my proposal they wouldn't.

Kwame (E 08') and Andrew Bynum for Zach
OR
C.Mihm (E 07'), Mckie (E 07'), Vujacic (TO 08') and Bynum for Zach

ANY deal with LA would center around Bynum. He is the key component in any deal. The question is whether or not LA even remotely wants to deal him. I tend to think Zach would be enticing enough to them to trade him. Is he worth it though? That is the big question here. I doubt LA deals Kwame (whom has shown signs of improvement), but it certainly makes the deal more palatable. I think the 2nd deal is more likely, and I don't mind Mihm as a servicable center, McKie would probably be waived and Vujacic is ho hum. The key to this deal again is Bynum and whether or not you think he is a future quality\potential "All Star" center.

Final Thought: I am not a big fan of this deal, I don't like dealing with LA, and I am not convinced that Bynum is a future top center in the NBA, although I do like him as a prospect. IF, and it is a big IF, mgmt feels Bynum has very good potential as a center, then you think about this deal. Like I said, sketchy...


MINNESOTA

You thought the LA deal was sketchy? How about a deal with MIN? And no...contrary to popular belief it wouldn't be for KG...The price to acquire him would be (IMO) too steep for POR to consider...and frankly at KG's age...I don't think it would be worth the cost in talent POR would have to give up.

M.Blount (E 10'), T.Hassell (E 10') & the 7th pick for Zach

Well for MIN, this deal is all about keeping KG in MIN, which I think will be there major focus. I don't think MIN wants to deal KG in any way whatsoever. So why for POR? Well, again it is about the pick and adding some veteran pieces to the team. The problem is the pick is decent though not great & the "veterans" are medioce at best. Hassell would provide a good defensive presence at SG, Blount is a decent center. POR could instead get M.Jaric or R.Davis instead of Hassell as a possibility. The 7th pick allows POR to go after Gay, Roy, Carney or S.Williams

and still get a Morrison\Aldridge\Bargnani\Thomas...

Final Thought: I wrote this scenario down and then said "Why even bother" and that is how I feel about this deal. I like the 7th pick, but IMO that is the only real value out of this trade and that isn't a lot for Zach...add to that Hassell & Blount whose contracts are not helpful, especially considering they are mediocre players and I don't see this happening. Getting R.Davis or M.Jaric would help a little, but not enough IMO.

NEW JERSEY
Well there is history here and NJ is still looking for a PF. The problem is, there aren't a lot of pieces POR could get that NJ would be willing to deal...and to make a deal work would require a 3 or 4 for 1. I seriously doubt NJ would deal Kidd\Carter\Jefferson or Kristic for Zach. So waht does that leave? Not a heck of a lot.

J.Collins (E 09'), Nachbar (E 08'), A.Wright (TO 08') and rights to M.Ilic for Zach

Not a lot to like about this deal. Ilic is supposedly a good prospect, Collins is a mediocre center, Wright is a SG prospect that hasn't shown much and this would be Nachbar's 3rd? team...Not even the inclusion of the 22nd pick would make this deal any better.

Final Thought: Why bother, mgmt would be dumb to make this deal.

Looking at all the teams and potential deals I saw, I am left thinking that Housten, Denver, Chicago, New York, Indiana and Cleveland are the best possible trading partners for Zach. It is very possible there is another team that I am not seeing as a trade partner or a team that has interest in Zach where I don't see there being any. In any event, it will be interesting to see what POR mgmt decides to do with Zach this offseason.



whew...........

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Trader Ed

Correcto muendo...

much easier to deal after July 1...

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Reep

Wow, impressive list.

I think most of those trades pass the red-face test. Congratulations, I wouldn't have guessed there were that many possibilities.

I like the Minnesota and Houston deals the best.

Can you add a poll to this and see which deals people like the best?

sa1177

Very nicely done...

I think I would prefer either Indy deal or the first Houston deal if I had to pick a couple of favorites.

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BrooklynBaller

I think the 'potential' deal with Chicago would help the Blazers the most in the longrun. Taking on Mike Sweetney and having a great chance at getting one (or two?) of Bargnani, Aldridge, or Thomas would help immensely. Any of these three players would compliment our young core the most and it would allow a couple of the Blazers younger players (namely Telfair and Webster) to emerge as the leaders for this franchise.

Having said that, however, I don't think there's a chance in hell a trade with Chicago goes down due to the reasons you outline above.

Good post though ... and well thought out!

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ThatBlazerGuy

Awesome post. Right now the Chicago trade is #1(It could also be a the same exact deal with Atlanta only w/o Sweets), with Houston a distant 2nd.

ATLien

Atlanta would like to trade you Marvin Williams and Josh Smith for Zach Randolph.














Siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiike!

hasoos

That was a well put together post Kmurph, and it gives a lot to think about before a proper reply can be thought up.

Translation: I will flame your post later!

Just kidding!

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Hasoos

Verro

Some good ideas, especially the Minessota trade and the 2nd Houston deal. Unfortunately I don't think Zach has enough value to make some of the others happen, particularly the Chicago trade.

If we could get Sheldon Williams with one of the incoming picks that would be a dream scenario.

Telfair
Webster
Bargnani
Williams
Pryzbilla

That's a young dynamic starting five, whose styles would really compliment each other well.

For Three! Rip City!

As others have already said, just a great post.

Out of all the deals I would have to say the Chicago one is the least likely. Why? Because Scott Skiles attends the Jerry Sloan/Nate Mcmillan old school of coaching and skiles would eat Randolf for lunch. He would fit in over there though (if they could keep him from crying). I would do that deal in a heartbeat.

I though the Houston deal was the most realistic. It would be interesting to see what the Houston fans think about it. I would think they would be open to the idea. My only suggestion and secret hope has been that we can attach Miles to any deal for ZR so we can get rid of both of them.

Also, is there any chance Toronto might bite? They already have Villanueva and Bosh. I would be open to either player. For toronto you could bring in ZR and not worry about him skipping town due to free agency. Didn't they draft a center a couple of years ago? I assume he's lousy but it's nice to stock pile young big guys. Sometimes they develop late.

RPCity

I think the best combination of likliness and attractivness from a mutual perspective is the Houston deal. Just out of curiosity....I'm going to float it over on their board to see what kind of a reaction it gets.

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