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Old 07-23-2006, 07:42 PM   #61 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

It wouldnt work salary wise.
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Old 07-24-2006, 12:06 AM   #62 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

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Originally Posted by Minstrel
Neither is good, but Randolph doesn't have an edge on any NBA player in defense. He's quite awful.
Do you have any evidence to support this claim?

Really, none at all? I'd like to say I'm surprised but I'm simply not.

But no one has ever gone through the time and effort to take a look at just how well players do when defended by Zach. And seeing as it would involve a lot of time and effort to prove that Zach is a bad defender I, being the ridiculous Zach homer that I am, will continue to say that Zach is not nearly as bad on defense as people say he is.
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Old 07-24-2006, 12:09 AM   #63 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

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Originally Posted by Minstrel
I just said durabiltiy is an issue you have to consider. Implying a player's production is completely worthless because he didn't play every game is absurd.

Let's put it this way: Webber is clearly better than Randolph in any game he plays. Webber played 1 more game than Randolph last year. Pretty open and shut case.



Okay. Let's also only use Webber's numbers before his injury. Injuries clearly have no long-term impact, right?



Zach is younger. He's not more efficient. More durable is questionable: both missed a lot of games returning from a serious injury and Webber played one more game than Randolph last season.



Both Webber and Randolph seem to no longer be the players they were before injury. A player who has declined three straight seasons (and the decline started before his injury) is not particularly likely to significantly improve.

A player coming off an injury filled career in his mid 30's is much different than a player coming off one injury at 25.

Look at their average games played over the last few years and tell me who you bet on being more durable.

Weber- 54 games, 67 games, 44 games, 46 games, 75 games
Zach- 77 games, 81 games, 46 games, 74 games

It's not a question of Weber's production being completely worthless- I'd say his numbers are worth about 60% of those of a mythically healthy Webber. Or maybe, charitably, 70% worth having Zach for an average one of his seasons.

You want to use only Weber's numbers before his injury- which of the 5 or 6 injuries? You aren't seriously arguing comparable durability here, are you.

Maybe you could take Grant Hill's stats over a 30 game season and say he's better than Carmelo, but most people would see the flaws in your logic.

There are similar flaws in comparing Weber to Zach.


One final point- the three year decline you talk about includes a season where Zach was playing hurt and another season where he was coming back from surgery. Not the fairest analysis?
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Old 07-24-2006, 12:37 AM   #64 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

This would be a terrible and short sighted deal. Zach has the ability to be a 20/10 scorer, and is only 25 years old. Im not a fan of him at all, but strongly believe we need to see a fully recovered Zach for a year before offloading him for salary room that we will then need to waste on another big man who we will most certainly over pay also. Look at Nene's contract. In this day and age nearly every half talented big man is overpaid. I am not a believer in ZBo being a multiple all-star like I once was, but he is easily our best offensive player and a true low post scoring presence(when he wants to be).
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Old 07-24-2006, 08:20 AM   #65 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

Here's some uptodate info on Zach from Mike Barret's blog; if it's true it seems it might be good to keep Zach.

"Zach is apparently looking very, very good, and that's one of the big reasons we're going down to the Dirty South. Bayno, who's known as one of the best player development coaches in the business, has been thrilled with Zach's progress. I'll have a first-hand account for you."
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Old 07-24-2006, 10:38 AM   #66 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

Quote:
"Zach is apparently looking very, very good, and that's one of the big reasons we're going down to the Dirty South. Bayno, who's known as one of the best player development coaches in the business, has been thrilled with Zach's progress. I'll have a first-hand account for you."
This has been the same refrain about Zach for the last few summers...If only it were true...but it isn't....

Look, I am not sure I favor the deal either, but the reason for the deal IMO...isn't about getting Webber...It is in opening a spot for Aldridge and giving him a year or two to develop into it, divesting POR of a rather large and sorry POR fans, difficult contract to deal at this juncture, along with dumping a few other uneeded contracts (like Dixon, Dickau, Skinner), and netting POR a few other quality pieces for the future....

Webber, IMO could bridge the gap for a year, or less, if Aldridge shows he is ready or a good deal comes a knockin'...but NEXT year when Webber's contract is a massive expiring one, my guess is that Webber would have more value, either as a "no risk" player to add to a playoff team,, b\c of his expiring contract or as a massive salary dump to a team looking to get under the cap....and maybe that team could even be POR? if they were somehow able to dump Miles for an expiring or 2yr contract this year...

Maybe Salmons isn't enticing, maybe Korver is, or maybe POR could get a draft, heck or wait a month or two and try and get Carney....Iguodala is a pipe dream...Philly would never include him in a package for Zach, and for good reason, he is one of the few young players with potential Philly has....

Anyway...it was just an idea to throw out there...glad it generated so much opinion and thought...
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Old 07-24-2006, 11:18 AM   #67 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebott
Do you have any evidence to support this claim?

Really, none at all? I'd like to say I'm surprised but I'm simply not.
Why would that be surprising? There are no good defensive metrics. There are some approaches to quantifying defense, but none that are all that satisfying. In the end, defense comes down to observation and opinion.

I never said that my opinion Randolph's defense is proveable or conclusive. But his defense is observeably so poor, it's hard to imagine any NBA regular, at least, that Randolph is clearly better than, defensively.
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Old 07-24-2006, 11:26 AM   #68 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

I don't see the point - if he was expiring this year, maybe...

But potentially two years of a disgruntled (he'll be losing A LOT), injured, jump shooting Webber is just not worth it.

Why not just let our good PF play and raise his value to either stay or net us something much better?

If you're going to bring in a massively overpaid, injury-prone has-been, at least get a guy with a good attitude - like Grant Hill. Otherwise, keep your overpaid young scoring PF.

LaMarcus has plenty of people that he should be able to beat out for frontcourt minutes. If he can't win minutes away from LaFrentz, Skinner and Joel, than there's no way we sould just be giving talent away for his benefit.
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Old 07-24-2006, 11:27 AM   #69 (permalink)
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Re: Should POR deal Zach for Webber?

Part of this debate is based on a false premise.

It has not been established that LaMarcus can't play center at the NBA level. If he can, a team with LaMarcus at the 5 and Zach at the 4 is simply better than a Joel/LaMarcus alignment.
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