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Old 11-14-2006, 01:55 PM   #1 (permalink)
ProudBFan
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Why we predict the way we do...

Gramps statistics got me thinking about why we Blazers fans typically predict more in favor of the Blazers than we probably should. And I think I've got it figured out:

Think of it as a 2x2 matrix, with the outcome of the game (win / lose) as one factor and the outcome of our predictions (right / wrong) as another:

Blazers Win / Predict Right =
Blazers Win / Predict Wrong =
Blazers Lose / Predict Right =
Blazers Lose / Predict Wrong =

In English, if we predict the Blazers to win and they do, we've got "double-happiness" ( ) coming our way! No other scenario gives us, as predictors, a chance at "double-happiness". We can find some solace in a Blazers win when we predict a loss (because hey, Blazers win!), and also when the Blazers lose when we predict a loss (because we predicted right). But there is just NO happiness for us in predicting a win that ends up being a loss. So we simply tend to predict in a way that maximizes our chances of happiness!

Anyway, just a theory...

PBF
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Old 11-14-2006, 04:46 PM   #2 (permalink)
LameR
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Re: Why we predict the way we do...

I've heard that applied to reglion too haha.
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