Boob-No-More

Here's the up to date rookie efficiency ratings for all games through 1/21/07. I was just going to include the top 10, but decided to include Randy Foye as well since whoever does the T-Mobile Rookie Rankings on nba.com seem to have a man crush on him and consistantly ranks him higher than he deserves.

Speaking of the T-Mobile Rookie Rankings, they are due out later today and we'll see just how far Brandon Roy climbs after the week he had (EFF = 27.67 for the week).

So here's the latest rookie efficiency ratings for each player listed by season total, month (January), week (ending 1/21/07)).

1 Brandon Roy - 14.64, 17.64, 27.67
2 Jorge Garbajosa - 10.87, 5.33, 7.33
3 Shelden Williams - 9.71, 9.89, 6.50
4 Alexander Johnson - 9.27, 10.33, 8.00
5 Andrea Bargnani - 8.95, 11.00, 9.33
6 Craig Smith - 8.74, 6.55, 7.50
7 Adam Morrison - 8.62, 10.78, 13.00
8 LaMarcus Aldridge - 8.52, 10.00, 12.33
9 Paul Millsap - 8.41, 5.20, 5.00
10 Rudy Gay - 8.39, 12.44, 17.00
11 Randy Foye - 8.08, 10.27, 12.00

Trends: Brandon Roy had, by a huge margin, the best week any rookie has had this season. He's also having, by a significant amount, the best month any rookie has had so far this season. Hopefully the dolt that compiles the T-Mobile Rookie Rantings will finally realize this and put him at No. 1 where he belongs. He's so far ahead of the pack in EFF that placing him anywhere other than No. 1 is a joke.

Gay, Morrison, Aldridge and Foye also had good weeks (EFF = 12.00 or better). Based on his current 8th overall EFF rating combined with his upward trend, LaMarcus Aldridge should finally make the top 10 on the T-Mobile Rookie Ratings. Look for Paul Millsap to drop out of the top 10 after a poor showing this week and general downward trend this month. Foye didn't deserve the 4th place rating he held last week, but since he had a good week, probably won't move down.

For the month of January, Brandon Roy holds the top efficiency rating of 17.64 and continues to distance himself from the pack. For Januay, Rudy Gay is second in EFF at 12.44, followed by a mob between 11.00 and 10.00 consisting of Bargnani (11.00), Morrison (10.78), Johnson (10.33), Foye (10.27) and Aldridge (10.00). Gay and Johnson are clearly benefitting from their team's new, high scoring, up tempo style. After a very good December (EFF = 14.33), Jorge Garbajosa continues to have a miserable January (EFF = 5.33). I wonder how far he'll fall in this week's T-Mobile Rookie Rankings.

BNM

Utherhimo

yeah thats great aldridge is impressing too since hewasnt even to see the floor at all this season!

__________________
Mead for Life and Life for Mead ~ "ORAGUN", not "ORYGONE"!
WELCOME RUDY, BAYLESS and Batum to the Blazer Tribe: wear the Scarlet and Black with Pride. HAIL THE NORTH WEST! LONG LIVE OREGON!

00 this season is for YOU!!!! RIP!

Boob-No-More

In games he plays at least 20 minutes, Aldridge's EFF = 13.39. This is very good for a rookie and especially encouraging or the future when he will regularly see >20 MPG. In fact, if Nate would just play him consistant minutes, we'd easily have the two highest rated rookies in the league.

It will be interesting to see what the new T-Mobile Rookie Rankings look like when they come out in a couple hours. As mentioned above, Roy had a phenomenal week (not just for a rookie, 27.67 for the season would put him 3rd in the entire league behind only Garnett and Wade). He really does deserve to be ranked first among rookies (and by a signficant margin). Not only does he lead all rookies in EFF (by nearly 4 points), he's also leading rookies in scoring, 5th in rebounding, 2nd only to Sergio in assists and 1st in steals.

Whoever does these rankings is usually slow to move players up/down (although I thought moving Bargnani to No. 1 last week was definitely premature). Based on both season totals and recent trends, Roy SHOULD be No. 1 and LaMarcus Aldridge SHOULD be in the top 10.

BNM

Masbee

This is a good point and brings up the issue of big stat numbers vs. effectiveness.

Some rookies are good. Some rookies get lots of shots and minutes. They aren't always the same.

For the purposes of the Rookie of the Year race, I ageee that EFF is probably as good a starting point as any stat reference.

Raw stats (adjusted for per game numbers to account for injury periods) seems to match the ROY winners every year. When there is no clear cut, overall stat winner, they tend to single out the scoring leader, though occaisionally the rebound leader or a combo leader (EFF) will win over the PPG rookie leader.

Start with EFF, then look at PPG and Reb.

This brings us to "good". EFF does not equal good, nor does it give a hint as to which rookies with limited playing time, might be good players later.

I like to look at PER numbers to give hints of that. You mention style affecting numbers. It does warp perceptions when comparing players on different teams who play different pace. PER tries to adjust for that by using a pace factor.

PER also adjusts for a player's minutes. Essential when comparing rookies, who go to team's with different situations. Better quality players don't alway get more minutes as rookies. Of course, there is always a danger of reading too much into stats based on very limited minutes. The fewer minutes a rookie has played, the less reliable any PER type numbers will be.

I think Blazer fans will be THRILLED to look at these numbers:

PER as of 1-22-07:

1 Brandon Roy - 18.60
2 Jorge Garbajosa - 11.77
3 Shelden Williams - 11.76
4 Alexander Johnson - 16.80
5 Andrea Bargnani - 12.29
6 Craig Smith - 16.48
7 Adam Morrison - 9.05
8 LaMarcus Aldridge - 15.91
9 Paul Millsap - 16.86
10 Rudy Gay - 11.80
11 Randy Foye - 13.63

12 Sergio Rodriquez - 16.96

The 6 highest PER rookies are the 3 Blazers and 3 2nd round forwards, who bang and rebound and get putbacks to earn their minutes and high per rating.

Boob-No-More

There is a pretty tight correlation between recent ROY voting and EFF. With the possible exceptions of...

Bingo. Gaudy scoring numbers can influence voters and overcome an overall weak game and lower EFF. Of course, when the same player leads all rookies in both PPG and EFF, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion they will win ROY.

Agreed. I chose to use EFF because it's simpler and more people understand the basic good minus bad EFF calculation. Also, is there a non-membership site with up to date PER ratings? I know Hollinger posts them on ESPN, but you need "Insider" (which I don't have) to see anything other than the top 5. Current EFF stats are posted on nba.com daily.

Still, I find that even too slow for me. So, I have my own rookie EFF spreadsheet. I enter the data from the box scores every evening for the top 11 rookies and instantly have up to date rookie EFF rankings. The same spreadsheet also calculates EFF for each month and each week, so I can notice upward and downward trends.

Of course, I could do the same thing with a more advanced spreadsheet and PER, but I'm too lazy to do that.

Since the ROY race seems to be of interest to most Blazer fans, I'll continue to post updated rookie EFF ratings every Sunday evening/Monday morning (prior to the updated T-Mobile Rookie Rankings). So we can all track the progress of our rookies.

Would you be willing to do the same for rookie PER ratings?

BNM

graybeard

Nice job, Masbee. All hail Pritchard and his rookies!

Masbee

No.

But, for those interested, Knickerblogger (I meant to post the link in my first post) has daily updates to PER numbers (which are estimates during the season as pace factor is not finalized until season ends). Unfortunately the web site only has Leaders, and team by team stats. You can't do rookie sorts, unless you download the data first. But, hey, it's free!

http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2007/Blazers.htm

Boob-No-More

Masbee - thanks for the link. I'll check it out for my own benefit. I don't blame you for not wanting to post weekly rookie PER updates. It sounds like a lot of work.

Since I already have the rookie EFF spreadsheet in place, I'll keep updating the rookie EFF ratings here in the forum each week, but I'll also pass on accumulating, calculating and posting weekly rookie PER ratings. Too much work. The simpler EFF ratings should give most folks a reasonably accurate idea of where our guys stand in the ROY race - with the one caveat that gaudy scoring may influence voters over lower scoring players with higher EFF ratings.

BNM